World Plan: What to expect from the Thailand-Cambodia talks

The beginning of peaceful contacts between Thailand and Cambodia will not resolve the long-standing conflict, experts tell Izvestia. The main reason for the historical confrontation between neighboring countries is the lack of a clear demarcation of the border. On August 4, four-day talks between Bangkok and Phnom Penh began in Kuala Lumpur. Later, they will be joined by observers from China and the United States. For the latter, this is not only a matter of peacemaking ambitions, but also of geopolitics — the US-Chinese confrontation is unfolding, including in the Asia-Pacific region. Is there a risk of escalation of the conflict and what are the interests of Beijing and Washington — in the material of Izvestia.

How are the meetings between representatives of Thailand and Cambodia going?

Peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia have begun in Malaysia. So far, high-ranking representatives of the security services of both countries are participating in them. There are few details, but earlier the media, citing statements by the Malaysian military, reported that the parties would discuss the creation of an ASEAN observer group. In total, the negotiations will last four days, and after their expiration, on August 7, the defense ministers of the two states, as well as observers from Malaysia, the United States and China, will join the dialogue.

The fighting began on July 24, and on the 28th, Thailand and Cambodia, through the mediation of Malaysia, as well as China and the United States, agreed to a cease-fire. However, by this time, the armed conflict on the Thai side had claimed the lives of 22 people: 14 civilians and eight military personnel, and 140 more people were injured. At the same time, at least 13 Cambodians were killed and more than 70 injured, the media reported, citing data from the country's Ministry of National Defense.

Despite the truce, hundreds of thousands of people on both sides of the border continue to stay in evacuation camps due to fears of renewed conflict. Moreover, all this time both sides have been accusing each other of violating the ceasefire. On August 3, on the eve of the peace talks, Cambodia announced that Thailand was preparing for a military operation against the kingdom, local media reported, citing the Ministry of Defense. Allegedly, the agency received information from intelligence that the Thai authorities had instructed the remaining civilians in the border area of Surin Province to evacuate, and the offensive could begin "in the near future." Bangkok rejected this accusation, calling it an attempt to discredit the country.

On the morning of August 4, the Thai Government reported that the situation on the Thai-Cambodian border remained stable and there had been no clashes. Since it has not yet been possible to establish a lasting truce, both sides will agree to ensure that all people evacuated from the border area can return to their homes.

— After all, a lot of people were evacuated from the border area, especially in Thailand. And these are ordinary residents: peasants, small traders — it is very important for them to return to their places," Elena Fomicheva, senior researcher at the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.

The conflict of neighbors has already penetrated into the social sphere of society. In particular, comments on social media are becoming more provocative and sometimes violent. A video appeared on the Internet showing a group of Thais beating up a man, presumably a citizen of Cambodia. There are also shots of two Cambodian women trampling on the Thai flag, which has even become part of a new trend on social media.

Although Russia is not participating in the negotiations, as a partner of ASEAN, it calls on Thailand and Cambodia to resolve the confrontation. "The Russian side expresses concern about the escalation of the conflict and calls on the parties to exercise restraint and establish dialogue in order to resolve the Thai-Cambodian contradictions by peaceful means," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on July 24.

By the way, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia previously noted that tourists are not in danger in these countries, unless, of course, they travel to border areas. The resort areas in Thailand are located far from the border, and the tourist flow from Russia to Cambodia is not massive.

What are the reasons for the confrontation between the two countries?

This is not the first time that armed clashes between Cambodia and Thailand have occurred. This time, the reason was the disputed territories around the temple complexes of Preah Vihear and Ta Moan Thom, which eventually resulted in the largest conflict in the last 14 years. The main reason for the historical confrontation between Thailand and Cambodia is the undemarked border. Since the beginning of the 20th century, neither the countries themselves nor the international community have been able to settle disputes over border territories.

— The discrepancy in the documents stretches back to the time of French Indochina, a colony that included Cambodia at one time, and before that, in a certain part it was under the sovereignty of Siam, that is, present—day Thailand. It's all mountainous terrain. So far, the demarcation there has been done by watersheds. Then it descends to the Gulf of Thailand, and there are also territorial problems there. Therefore, this issue will not be resolved at this stage. It's too complicated," noted Elena Fomicheva.

Moreover, territorial disputes, especially in the case of Thailand, are used to mask internal problems, the expert notes. The situation there has now worsened, among other things, due to political instability amid the change of prime minister, as well as economic instability due to lower GDP growth.

Against this background, the risk of a renewed conflict remains, especially if the governments of both countries do not sufficiently control the actions of soldiers on the border. Civilian control of the army is crucial for resolving this conflict, Paul Chambers, a visiting researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, tells Izvestia.

Destabilization in the region, first of all, is not beneficial to ASEAN, which is also why Kuala Lumpur has become a platform for negotiations between neighboring members of the organization. Malaysia currently holds the ASEAN presidency, and it is obvious that it is important for its Government to demonstrate its leadership role in the organization, albeit temporarily. The preservation of unity for the association is an important political moment, stressed Elena Fomicheva.

At the same time, ASEAN has lost international trust at the moment, Paul Chambers told Izvestia. In his opinion, this is evidenced by the fact that in order to resolve the conflict it was necessary to involve third countries, namely the United States and China. The choice of observers is also not accidental. In the context of the US-China confrontation, both countries are pursuing their interests in the Asia-Pacific region in general and in Southeast Asia in particular.

— The situation in the region is very important for both sides.: who will be with whom, who will support whom, who is whose ally," Fomicheva emphasizes.

China has established good relations with Cambodia, especially in the areas of trade and security. Thailand has developed relatively close ties with the United States, but in recent years Bangkok has also become closer to Beijing. The density of their contacts is evidenced by the joint military exercises that China and Thailand have begun to conduct on a regular basis both on land and in the Pacific Ocean. In the event of an armed conflict in the region, it is very important for China to maintain stability along its southern borders. As for the United States, its influence in the Asia-Pacific region is less than that of China, which only fuels Donald Trump's personal peacemaking ambitions.