Recovery period: OPEC+ members agreed to increase oil production

Eight OPEC+ countries have decided to increase their oil production quotas: in September they will increase by 547,000 barrels per day compared to August. This completes the recovery of production after a record reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day, which the group agreed to in 2023. Experts note the cartel's commitment to the chosen course, despite the American tariff wars. About how the decision of OPEC+ participants will affect the global oil market — in the Izvestia article.

What have the OPEC+ members agreed on?

Eight OPEC+ countries, during a meeting on August 3, decided to increase oil production quotas by 547,000 barrels per day compared to August.

The oil alliance (which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) said in a statement that this was done "taking into account the stable prospects for the global economy and current favorable market conditions reflected in low oil reserves, and in accordance with the decision taken on December 5, 2024." year, the beginning of a gradual and flexible return to voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day."

The increase in the quota by 547,000 barrels per day corresponds to the initial plan for a phased increase in production over four months. At the same time, the oil cartel traditionally emphasized that the phasing out of additional voluntary production adjustments could be suspended or canceled depending on changing market conditions.

"This flexibility will allow the group to continue to maintain stability in the oil market," the statement said.

Russia, excluding the compensation plan, will be able to increase oil production in September to 9.45 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia — to 9.98 million, Iraq — to 4.22 million, the UAE - to 3.375 million, according to OPEC materials.

The oil alliance said in a statement that the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, compliance and compensation. The next one will take place on September 7, 2025.

Why OPEC+ members increased production

The OPEC report for July 2025 says that in the second quarter, oil demand amounted to 104.3 million barrels per day, recalls the Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media). Tamara Safonova.

According to calculations by NUANCE Media, global oil production in June 2025 was also at 104.3 million barrels, meaning demand matched supply. Moreover, the demand for oil in 2025 will continue to show growth, and in the fourth quarter it will amount to 106.4 million barrels per day.

— That is, the restoration of voluntary OPEC+ cuts is necessary to support oil demand on the world market. The trigger for the surplus in the current situation is the US tariff wars, which lead to a slowdown in global trade, but the flexibility of OPEC+ solutions allows us to quickly make the necessary adjustments in accordance with market needs, the expert believes.

Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, agrees with this opinion. She noted that in the context of the tariff wars that Donald Trump had unleashed around the world, experts did not rule out that some oil market participants would increase their production above quotas in order to compensate for the volumes of Russian oil falling out of the market.

— Today, Russia exports about 4 million barrels per day. At the same time, almost half of this volume is purchased by India, against which Trump imposed 25 percent duties, citing high tariffs from New Delhi, trade barriers and "cooperation with Russia," including in the energy sector. A number of Western media outlets immediately reported that India had allegedly stopped buying Russian oil and switched to American supplies.

According to her, that is why the market started talking about the fact that the participants of the oil cartel can increase production above quotas. Although, as Ekaterina Kosareva notes, India had been buying oil from the United States before Trump's threats, as well as from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other representatives of the oil market.

— As we can see, even in the context of the American tariff wars, the alliance remains committed to its chosen course. Violating the agreements would mean the collapse of OPEC+, an unbalanced oil market, lower prices and investments in the future, which, of course, oil—producing countries are not interested in," she said.

What oil prices are expected in the near future

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, the market has already played down insider information about the increase in production, which appeared in the media on the eve of the meeting.

— Currently, the main attention of market participants is focused on the impact of tariff duties on the global economy. The policy of the American president does not contribute to an increase in US revenues, but only to a decrease in industrial activity, as it does around the world and causes serious disruptions in supply chains, the expert believes.

Of course, last week, after Trump's threats against India, the oil market reacted with an increase in quotations — oil prices stayed above $70 per barrel. However, trading ended on Friday, August 1, with a decrease of more than 3% — $69.53 per barrel of Brent was given.

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, the dynamics were influenced by the reaction of Indian companies and authorities to Donald Trump's threats.

It is worth recalling that the press service of the Indian Foreign Ministry stated in the context of cooperation with Russia that "ties with any country, or all the ties that we have with various countries, have their own value, and they should not be viewed through the prism of a third country."

"As for the relations between India and Russia, we have a stable and time—tested partnership," the Indian Foreign Ministry stressed.

Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies, believes that under current conditions, without taking into account geopolitical risks, oil prices will remain in the range of $65-70 per barrel.

— A lot will depend on the level of oil reserves in the USA, China, and the dynamics of drilling rig commissioning. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that trans—Pacific politicians will rock the market with verbal interventions about the introduction of new "punitive" tariff duties, but as practice has already shown, countries have begun to talk more and more about sovereign interests, not succumbing to blackmail from the United States, the expert concluded.

Therefore, in the future, we should not expect any serious jumps in oil prices, Olga Orlova noted.