Q&A: Why is Witkoff going to Russia

The United States is tightening its position as the 10-day deadline for resolving the conflict in Ukraine expires. Donald Trump has officially announced sanctions against Russia, and Ukraine will receive new American AMRAAM missiles. Meanwhile, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is going to Russia. After his last visit on April 11, Moscow and Kiev managed to hold three rounds of negotiations. However, there is no reason to expect a breakthrough in the settlement process now, experts tell Izvestia. It is possible that through Witkoff, the White House intends to clarify exactly what restrictions the Russian economy may face after Trump's ultimatum expires. Although the Kremlin has previously stated that Russia has already developed a certain immunity to sanctions. Whether the new weapons will change the situation and what to expect from the visit of the US special envoy to Russia is in the Izvestia article.

Pentagon orders new AMRAAM missiles for Ukraine

The US Department of Defense has signed a contract with one of the largest American arms companies, Raytheon, to produce AMRAAM medium-range aircraft missiles. Ukraine and a number of United States allies will receive them. The missiles will also be delivered to Denmark, Belgium, Japan, the Netherlands, Canada, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Spain, Poland, Sweden, Taiwan, Lithuania, the United Kingdom, Australia, Switzerland, Israel and Kuwait. $3.5 billion will be allocated for these purposes, and production is scheduled until 2031.

Nevertheless, it is unclear when and how many missiles Ukraine will receive, Dmitry Kornev, editor of the Military Russia website, tells Izvestia.

— We are talking about a new production of AMRAAM missiles for all foreign consumers. When and how many missiles Ukraine will receive under this agreement is a big question. They may receive them in the very near future, say, next year, or maybe in two or three years. It cannot be ruled out that the delivery will take a long time," the expert says.

Ukraine is already using AMRAAM, in particular, from F-16 fighter jets, the expert explained. They can also be used by NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems, again of Western manufacture. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, AMRAAM is mainly supplied from European stocks, the expert noted.

— Both airplanes and air defense systems can also use American-made missiles. Where exactly and which missile variants will be supplied is still a question. But the APU needs them in large quantities. Especially for air defense systems. Their consumption is huge," the expert concluded.

American leader Donald Trump said that in general, the United States will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine and intend to increase them. On July 14, he announced billions of dollars in military support, promising Kiev Patriot complexes, however, at the expense of Europe. In addition, he gave the parties 50 days to resolve the conflict. In case of failure, the head of the White House threatened to impose import duties of 100% on Russian goods, as well as secondary tariffs for countries that buy Russian oil, gas and other energy resources. On July 31, Trump reduced the deadline to 10 days. However, he is not sure that the restrictions will have any effect.

— Yes, we can impose sanctions. I don't think the sanctions bother him (Vladimir Putin — Ed.). They know about the sanctions. I don't know if there will be an effect, but we will do it," Trump said.

The Kremlin also said that the Russian economy has developed immunity to them over the years of being under restrictions.

— We have been living under a lot of sanctions for quite a long time. Our economy is functioning under a huge number of restrictions. Therefore, of course, we have already developed a certain immunity in this regard," said Dmitry Peskov, the official representative of the President of the Russian Federation.

The Kremlin previously stressed that it had "taken note" of the statement by the American president about the reduction of the term.

On the whole, the American leader has repeatedly admitted that the United States will refuse to mediate in the settlement of the conflict due to the lack of progress. On July 27, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that Trump was already "losing patience," but was still interested in ending the conflict.

What to expect from Witkoff's visit to Russia

Against this background, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is going to Russia, which suggests that the negotiations are either at an impasse, or, on the contrary, some kind of development awaits them. Even before the start of the direct dialogue between Moscow and Kiev, he took an active part in the settlement as an intermediary between the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States.

Whitkoff, officially the special envoy for the Middle East, is currently in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, his visit to Russia is expected to take place in the coming days. He had already visited Russia three times before: on February 11, March 13 and April 11. He also last met with President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. Then Russia and the United States discussed the possibility of resuming direct talks between Moscow and Kiev.

And they really started. Three rounds were held in Istanbul. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin emphasized to Izvestia after the latter that Russia was counting on the fourth.

On August 1, Vladimir Putin positively assessed the meetings in Istanbul. But he added that Russia is ready to wait if Ukraine believes that now is not the time for negotiations.

— Well, in principle, we can wait. If the Ukrainian leadership believes that now is not the time, but we need to wait, please, we are ready to wait," he said, commenting on Vladimir Zelensky's words that there is no point in negotiating now and we must wait for "regime change in the Russian Federation."

By the way, Witkoff himself expressed confidence at the end of July that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would be resolved and this "would be an important moment." He is probably going to Russia to convince Moscow in private conversations and describe what restrictions the Russian economy may face after August 8 if a decision is made on Ukraine that does not suit the White House, HSE analyst Tigran Meloyan tells Izvestia.

— In the end, it is also important for Washington to clarify for itself which plan of action the United States should adopt in relation to Russia. This makes the visit of Trump's special envoy, from the American point of view, quite justified, since the Kremlin has not given detailed comments on the threats of the US president in the public space, the expert says.

Another important point is that after the introduction of secondary duties and one hundred percent tariffs on all imports from Russia, the American side is unlikely to be able to claim an intermediary role, which already looks questionable, Meloyan added.

It is also possible that in the light of recent events, the topic of holding elections in Ukraine will be discussed, political analyst Ivan Loshkarev tells Izvestia.

— It is unlikely that we will talk about simple constructions like replacing Zelensky with Zaluzhny. Moscow is likely to raise the issue of the new Ukrainian government being represented by someone untainted by current abuses and provocative decisions, the expert believes.

On July 29, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service announced that representatives of the United States and Great Britain had secretly met in the Alps with the head of the office of the Ukrainian administration, Andrei Ermak, the head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov (listed by Rosfinmonitoring as a terrorist and extremist), and the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now the Ukrainian ambassador to London, Valery Zaluzhny. According to intelligence reports, the parties discussed Zaluzhny's candidacy for the post of president of Ukraine.

There are too many issues to resolve to expect an immediate intensification of the negotiation process after Witkoff's visit. And the approach of the American side is to simply postpone these issues, which does not suit either Moscow or Kiev, the expert emphasizes. However, Witkoff's arrival clearly shows that the Trump administration, contrary to public statements, is still committed to dialogue and to finding common ground, Loshkarev concluded.