Come together peacefully: why Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a cease-fire

The risk of escalation between Thailand and Cambodia remains, despite the truce, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. They explain this by the fact that territorial disputes between the countries remain unresolved. Nevertheless, on July 29, the ceasefire, which the parties had agreed on the day before, comes into force. Three mediators participated in the settlement of the local border conflict — Malaysia, the United States and China. Who benefits from an emergency truce between Bangkok and Phnom Penh and why — in the Izvestia article.

Bangkok and Phnom Penh have come to peace

On July 28, talks between the warring countries took place in Kuala Lumpur after several days of armed clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. The ambassadors of the United States and China to Malaysia attended the meeting as observers. According to the Prime Minister of the host country, Anwar Ibrahim, the ceasefire agreement comes into force at midnight. After that, on July 29, the military representatives of the two countries agreed to hold an "informal meeting."

Armed clashes between Cambodia and Thailand over the disputed territory around the Preah Vihear and Ta Moan Thom temple complexes are not the first time, but the conflict that began on July 24 has become the largest in the last 14 years. According to the Thai side, 22 people were killed: 14 civilians and eight soldiers, 140 more people were injured. At least 13 Cambodians were killed and more than 70 injured, the media reported, citing data from the Ministry of National Defense of Cambodia. The media coverage of the current situation in both countries is expected to be the opposite, right down to who started the escalation.

After the escalation of the situation, the UN Security Council called for a truce between Thailand and Cambodia at a closed meeting on July 25. China and India, in particular, supported the ceasefire. The United States also played a significant, but not entirely "eco-friendly" role in the settlement. Donald Trump spoke by phone with the leaders of both countries, delivering an ultimatum — Washington will not conduct trade negotiations with Thailand and Cambodia until the parties cease hostilities. On July 12, Trump threatened to impose duties of 36% on these countries starting from August 1. Apparently, such an ultimatum approach is generally characteristic of the American president. The Republican is actively involved in the settlement of the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern conflicts, but so far not very successfully. In order to speed up an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, on July 14, Trump issued the same ultimatum, threatening duties of 100% on goods from the Russian Federation if there was no deal within 50 days. However, on July 28, he promised to reduce the time to 10-12 days. Probably, a successful settlement of at least some conflict will allow Trump to partially preserve his self-proclaimed reputation as a peacemaker.

At least during the talks, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet thanked both the US President, the Chinese government, and the Malaysian leader for their mediation in resolving the conflict. At the same time, the acting head of the Thai government, Phumtham Vechayachai, limited himself to assessing the negotiations themselves, calling them "in good faith."

What helped to resolve the conflict

It is curious that in fact three mediators participated in the settlement of a rather local conflict between two countries that were not the largest in terms of military potential: the United States, China and Malaysia.

"The United States is one of Thailand's leading trading partners, so economic pragmatism is very important for them," said Elena Burova, senior researcher at the Center for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the Thai Ministry of Commerce, in 2024, the volume of trade between Thailand and the United States amounted to $81 billion, while the Asian country's trade surplus with the United States in the same year was at the level of $35.4 billion.

As for China, it was not going to interfere in the border conflict directly. China, in general, is trying to be involved in conflict resolution in one way or another, be it Ukraine or the Middle East. Asia, including Southeast Asia, which is the fastest-growing region in the world, is of particular importance to Beijing, as it is already a matter of regional security and, therefore, stability. Diplomatic relations with both sides are important for China here. Thailand is one of China's leading trading partners, and Cambodia is one of the pro—Chinese countries in ASEAN.

The participation of the United States and China, direct geopolitical rivals, in the settlement also reflects the US-Chinese confrontation to some extent.

— Thailand is a traditional partner of the United States in the military sphere. There are American bases there. In Cambodia, the base was completely modernized by the Chinese. Accordingly, the conflict can be viewed globally as a confrontation between the United States and China, but so far it is purely local," Elena Burova shared with Izvestia.

Malaysia's choice as a mediator is also not accidental: in 2025, the country holds the presidency of ASEAN, which includes Thailand and Cambodia. However, the organization's role in this peace process is rather nominal — it is no longer considered effective, Burova believes. The example of Myanmar is illustrative here, where a civil war has been smoldering since 2021 or unresolved territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which provoke local clashes between China and the Philippines.

As the expert recalled, in 2008, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said that ASEAN had played no role in resolving the conflict with Thailand. They agreed among themselves independently.

Perhaps the impetus for a settlement for Bangkok and Phnom Penh was a simple and understandable desire to maintain stability in the region in order to preserve the tourist flow. Thailand's tourism sector accounts for 10% of GDP, Cambodia — 9.4%. By the way, earlier the Association of Tour Operators of Russia noted that tourists are not in danger in these countries if they do not travel to border areas. The resort areas in Thailand are located far from the border, and there is no mass tourist flow to Cambodia from the Russian Federation.

Could escalation happen again

However, it's not that simple. In addition to the temple complexes, Cambodia and Thailand have other disputed territories, for example, offshore, where oil reserves are concentrated. The disputed Siamese continental shelf potentially contains up to 11 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, as well as 500 million barrels of condensate and oil. It may also provoke a new escalation, although the conflicts around these territories have not yet escalated to the same scale as they did 14 years ago or now.

At the moment, the situation has worsened, among other things, due to internal instability in Thailand amid a change of prime minister and declining GDP growth. By developing the conflict, the Thai authorities are thus shifting the focus of citizens' attention "from internal to external." However, experts attribute the same motives to the Cambodian authorities.

Despite the fact that the parties have now reached an agreement, there is a possibility of a resumption of the conflict. Territorial disputes are smoldering coals that can be fanned at any moment. In addition, as Paul Chambers, a visiting researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, told Izvestia, political instability in Thailand may make it difficult to contain army units.