Nuclear breakthrough: Iran agrees to continue dialogue with Europe

Tehran and the Eurotroika countries have agreed to continue negotiations on resolving the crisis over Iran's nuclear program. This was stated by the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic Kazem Gharibabadi. The diplomat called the talks thorough and emphasized that the focus was on the nuclear program and the issue of lifting sanctions against Iran. The IAEA reported that Tehran has made it clear that it is ready to welcome the agency's technical team back to its country. However, even with a diplomatic breakthrough, the contradictions remain the same as before the meeting, and the concerns of the Iranian side have not been fully resolved. This could lead to Tehran's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In addition, the current negotiations do not exclude the possibility of a new conflict between Iran and Israel, experts warn.

How did the meeting in Istanbul end?

The first round of negotiations between Tehran and the Eurotroika (E3: France, Germany, Great Britain) took place on July 25 at the Iranian Embassy in Istanbul. The meeting at the level of deputy foreign ministers took place against the background of Europe's threats to activate a mechanism for restoring international sanctions against the republic by early autumn if it does not agree to resume work on restarting the nuclear deal.

The Istanbul round was unequivocally called a "test of realism", seeing in it a chance to test how realistic E3 is ready to work on restarting the agreement.

After the breakdown of cooperation within the framework of the "Oman format" due to Washington's fault, Iranian officials fear deceptive maneuvers from Europe. Especially in light of the fact that European diplomacy has chosen the method of pressure on Tehran as the basis of its negotiation strategy.

— [Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid] Takht-Ravanchi and I had a serious, frank and thorough conversation with the politicians of three European countries and the EU. The latest developments related to the issue of lifting sanctions and nuclear issues were discussed," said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi.

According to him, the parties agreed to continue negotiations to resolve the crisis around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The E3 countries view the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program as a demonstration of the "might of Europe" because they consider themselves the "initiators" of the negotiation process and the key architects of the JCPOA. At the Istanbul meeting, E3 teetered between exhortations and threats, either promising to ease pressure in response to Iranian flexibility, or threatening to tighten the screws on Tehran's nuclear program.

The notorious "snapback" procedure, which implies the restoration of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran in case of violation of its obligations under the 2015 agreement and which European officials started talking about last week, was expected to become the leitmotif of the meeting. Under the threat of its launch by mid—September, E3 continued to demand that Tehran "restore the framework of the deal" - that is, resume the negotiation process with Washington, normalize contacts with the IAEA and, more importantly, report in detail on the location and purpose of 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, which was moved from the Fordo facility to an unknown location in June 2025..

As Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized in an interview with Izvestia, Europe's focus on talking with Iran is solely around its nuclear program.

— The most important blow that the Europeans can inflict on Iran is the automatic imposition of snapback sanctions. This is a formula that, by the way, is spelled out in the JCPOA, and then approved by the UN Security Council. The Iranians have agreed to meet with the Europeans to resolve the issue of the automatic imposition of sanctions, since the JCPOA expires on October 18, he told Izvestia.

Meanwhile, Iran has made it clear to representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency that it is ready to resume negotiations on its nuclear program at the technical level, the media reported, citing the organization's Director General, Rafael Grossi.

"We can't change the past. What happened has already happened. Our task now is to prevent further attacks, violence and similar incidents. That is why we insist and urge the IAEA inspectors to return to Iran as soon as possible and continue their work," said Grossi, who, however, did not participate in the negotiations.

It is worth noting that Iran has prepared thoroughly for the Istanbul meeting, having held consultations with representatives of Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing continue to defend Tehran's right to a peaceful nuclear program and oppose the restoration of international sanctions against it. Moreover, the notorious "reduction of obligations under the JCPOA," under the pretext of which E3 proposes to tighten restrictions, was carried out by Iran after the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018.

In other words, Tehran did not violate the agreements and was guided by the mechanism prescribed in the JCPOA, which means that the pressure on it from Europe looks artificially inflated in many ways. And the Iranian diplomats in Istanbul, albeit allegorically, but focused the attention of their European counterparts on this.

The United States has not yet commented on the Turkish round of Iran-E3 talks. At the same time, the American information field is dominated by the belief that Tehran is in a "weak position" and will be forced sooner or later to accept the conditions of the West. "Operation Midnight Hammer has completely destroyed Iran's nuclear potential. America and the world have become safer thanks to these decisive actions," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said earlier.

What will Iran's withdrawal from the NPT lead to?

The promises of the E3 countries to achieve the restoration of international sanctions against Iran, as well as to declare Tehran a "key threat to the nuclear nonproliferation regime," hit hard not only Europe's image as a guarantor of a potential deal, but also the system of checks and balances built inside the republic.

Over the past few years, the Iranian leadership has been balancing the interests of the reformist and conservative camps, which advocate "international detente" and a "resolute foreign policy course."

And hardliners have been dominating lately. Their positions were especially strengthened after a series of US-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure in June 2025, when some European countries sided with Tel Aviv. Moreover, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose country is considered one of the founders of the E3 format, publicly stated that Israel was "doing its dirty work" — this caused a flurry of criticism in Tehran.

Iran responded relatively restrainedly to the combined aggression against the "nuclear perimeter" by suspending cooperation with the IAEA and closing access to facilities in the country to agency inspectors. At the same time, the diplomatic window for interaction with the European guarantors of the first "nuclear deal" was not completely closed, although some Iranian "hawks" insisted on severing ties. At the meeting in Istanbul, Tehran made it clear to the interlocutors that it was ready to resume technical consultations, but only if pressure on it was reduced.

If Iran's position is not taken seriously, its next possible step is to abandon the letter of the Treaty on the Non—Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), to which Tehran joined in 1968, and "lock in" internal security issues, following the example of the DPRK.

In a sense, the preparatory phase has already been completed by Tehran: the symbolic bill on the country's withdrawal from the NPT has been worked out and is waiting in the wings. According to Iranian parliamentarians, in the event of a sharp escalation, lawmakers will be able to "consider and adopt it within 24 hours." Of course, the Iranian leadership considers such a step to be an extreme measure, since withdrawal from the NPT would damage the republic's reputation and weaken its international contacts. Moreover, this will be a direct contradiction with the election program of the government of Masoud Peseshkian, who promised voters the restoration of the "nuclear deal", detente with the West and the lifting of foreign sanctions.

In addition, reneging on nuclear nonproliferation obligations risks provoking a "domino effect" in the Middle East. Iran's example may be followed by its regional rivals in the face of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which will pose more serious security challenges to the international community.

Both Tehran and Brussels understand this, but they expect that it will not come to a serious escalation. The continuation of technical consultations announced after the meeting, coupled with Iran's plans to return IAEA inspectors to the country "under certain conditions", was a kind of diplomatic breakthrough.

Could a new war break out in the Middle East

The meeting between Iran and E3 took place in the context of a gradual escalation of tension around the Iranian-Israeli confrontation. Both Tehran and Tel Aviv continue to declare that they are "ready for a new war" if circumstances so require.

However, so far the risk of direct conflict is not so great, especially since the opponents have not yet fully restored the "protective contour" after the mutual June attacks. For example, the conflict between Israel and Iran has demonstrated the shortage of interceptor missiles for advanced missile defense systems for both the Jewish state and its allies, and until this shortage is filled, they are not thinking about launching a new campaign in Tel Aviv. Iran is also concerned about the restoration of the air defense and missile defense batteries knocked out at the initial stage of Operation Lion Force.

Both Tehran and the E3 countries have so far shown a certain calmness, discussing issues of technical consultations on the nuclear deal and scheduling new meetings: both sides still have room for maneuver, albeit small.

However, the agreements reached by E3 and Iran in Istanbul are unlikely to be sustainable, says Farhad Ibrahimov, an orientalist and expert at the Center for Middle East Studies.

— In fact, we only agreed to continue meeting. But you can meet as many times as you want. In fact, we don't see any result. Let me remind you that in May, negotiations also took place between Iran and the Eurotroika, and also in Istanbul. And we remember that less than a month later, first Israel and then the Americans attacked Iran. And there is no guarantee that this will not happen again," he told Izvestia.

The expert does not rule out that the Americans are testing the ground through the Europeans, trying to understand how compliant Iran is now, and whether it is even possible to talk about something with it now.

— Historically, Europe has always been a kind of mediator in the Iranian-American relations. Mainly France, to some extent Germany and Great Britain," said Farhad Ibragimov. — The Europeans have now joined the American position on the issue of the nuclear deal and believe that it should be based on exactly the rules that the Americans prescribe and that, of course, the Iranians should not have any programs, even peaceful atom, although the Europeans initially said something completely different.

In other words, there is no reason to believe Europe, and Iran understands this well.