Dispute news: how the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia can end
China may act as a mediator in resolving the conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. On July 24, Bangkok and Phnom Penh exchanged blows. The situation worsened after border incidents, but analysts emphasize that such clashes were usually used to solve the internal political problems of these countries in the first place. Also, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia will not negatively affect tourists in these countries, it is not recommended to visit only the border areas. What are the reasons for the confrontation and whether we should expect a serious escalation — in the Izvestia article.
Escalation of the situation between Thailand and Cambodia
Since the morning of July 24, military clashes have been taking place on the border of Thailand and Cambodia using artillery and aviation. As a result of the strikes, more than 11 civilians and one soldier were killed, the Thai Ministry of Health said. There is no information about the victims in Cambodia yet. The parties blame each other for the escalation of the conflict.
Cambodia used rocket-propelled artillery, Thailand took to the air F-16 fighter jets, launching Operation War for Earth. According to the Thai command, at about seven a.m. Moscow time, they "joined the battle and neutralized" the military headquarters of the Cambodian armed forces, after which they returned to the base.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet said that Thai aircraft attacked army positions in the northeast of the republic. He also called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council "to stop Thailand's aggression." Bangkok responded by accusing Phnom Penh of planting anti-personnel mines on the border and shelling Thai military bases and civilian facilities, including a hospital, using heavy artillery. Thailand said it would negotiate with Cambodia only if Phnom Penh "stops aggression."
The Cambodian authorities evacuated about 5,000 people from the province of Oddarmeantye on the border with Thailand. It affected 1.5 thousand families from 12 villages. In turn, the acting Prime Minister of Thailand, Phumtham Vechayachai, said that the authorities ordered residents of the provinces of Buriram, Surin, Sisaket and Ubon Ratchathani, bordering Cambodia, to evacuate at least 50 km from the border. The head of the Thai province of Surin, Sutthirot Charontanasak, announced the displacement of about 40 thousand inhabitants of 86 border villages.
The Russian diplomatic mission in Cambodia has called on Russians to refrain from visiting areas on the border with Thailand.
"The Embassy is in constant contact with the competent Cambodian authorities and is closely monitoring the development of the situation. At the moment, there is no information about the presence of Russian citizens in the combat zone," the Russian diplomatic mission said in a statement.
Russian Ambassador to Thailand Evgeny Tomikhin also urged Russians to refrain from traveling to the border areas with Cambodia. However, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia noted that tourists are not in danger in the countries themselves. The resort areas in Thailand are located far from the border, and there is no mass tourist flow to Cambodia from Russia.
What are the prospects for escalation
Tensions began to rise after five Thai soldiers were hit by a Cambodian mine near the border. This is the second such incident in the disputed area in the last eight days. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has deep historical roots.
The dispute over the territories of the Phra Vihear and Ta Moan Thom temple complexes, which has been going on for more than 100 years, remains a source of tension between the two countries. In 1962, the International Court of Justice ruled that Pra Vihear belongs to Cambodia, but Bangkok did not accept this decision. In 2008, Thailand protested Cambodia's decision to include the temple complex in the UNESCO World Heritage List.
Military clashes in the areas adjacent to the border also occurred in 2008-2011. Last time, six Cambodian and four Thai soldiers were killed and about 40 soldiers were injured as a result of three days of clashes. At the same time, the current conflict may become more widespread, says Dmitry Mosyakov, head of the Center for the Study of Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania, member of the Academic Council of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— Previously, during the acute phase in Thailand and Cambodia, civilians were not affected so much, but now they are being evacuated. Cambodia has also deployed the Grad multiple launch rocket system, and Thailand has deployed F-16 fighter jets. This suggests that the conflict may scale further," he told Izvestia. "But I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. First, ASEAN will regulate the situation. Secondly, this conflict was usually used primarily to resolve domestic political issues. As soon as there were any problems with the ruling party, the government or the regime in Cambodia or Thailand, the conflict broke out in order to largely distract attention from internal contradictions.
Paul Chambers, a visiting researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, also believes that a full-scale military conflict is unlikely.
— Both countries adhere to a militaristic position. But it should be remembered that currently the Prime Minister of Thailand does not control the country's armed forces. However, in terms of the number of troops and military equipment, Thailand has a more powerful military potential than Cambodia. This is one of the reasons why former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will soon announce the start of conscription in Cambodia," he told Izvestia.
Paul Chambers compared the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia with the Indo-Pakistani conflict and outlined several differences. The first is size: the Indo—Pakistani conflict affects a much larger geographical area.
— Another feature is that Thai nationalists are particularly concerned about Cambodia, while some Thai businessmen and politicians, such as the family of Prime Minister Paetongtharn Shinawatra, prefer to do business with Cambodia and thus conclude border agreements. India and Pakistan are in a state of conflict that affects all sectors of their society,— he said.
— In addition, these countries are involved in a more bloody confrontation related to territorial disputes than Thailand and Cambodia. But these conflicts have two similarities: nationalism and the ability of the military to use these contradictions to strengthen political power," Paul Chambers added.
How will the conflict develop in the future
On July 24, at a press conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said that their country would promote reconciliation. The PRC is deeply concerned about the current situation and hopes that the parties will be able to resolve the problem through dialogue and negotiations.
— The current crisis may involve China in it, as it patronizes Cambodia, but at the same time it is increasingly becoming a friend of Thailand. Perhaps China will mediate in resolving the conflict," Paul Chambers suggested.
Dmitry Mosyakov also notes that China has a very serious influence and close economic relations with Thailand and especially with Cambodia, which is considered almost as the main ally of China in ASEAN and Southeast Asia.
But, according to the expert, experience shows that purely bilateral issues are resolved in this conflict.
— International involvement can manifest itself only if the conflict is scaled up. As long as it doesn't go beyond the logic of all the previous ones. Shootings happen there very often, but they usually do not cause such activation. And when the situation is difficult, they focus on it," he explained.
Both sides accuse each other, but from a legal point of view, all rights to the territory are in the hands of Cambodia, Dmitry Mosyakov added. In his opinion, if Thailand can come to some kind of compromise and resolve its internal problems, the conflict will gradually subside.
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