Chain action: Dividend payments could fall by a quarter in 2025
Russian companies in 2025 may pay a quarter less dividends than in the previous year, market participants told Izvestia. The recent dividend season has already ended worse than expected. The payments turned out to be half a trillion less than last year. Companies' profits are declining against the background of surges in the ruble exchange rate, the harsh policy of the Central Bank and difficulties in geopolitics. Some market players are completely abandoning profit sharing for 2024, for example, metallurgists. When the shares will become more profitable — in the Izvestia article.
Why have the dividend payments decreased?
Total dividend payments in 2025 may decrease by 22-24%, analysts polled by Izvestia believe. Many large companies are abandoning them amid economic difficulties and declining profits. It is especially difficult for players who are more sensitive to sanctions, the instability of the ruble and the high key interest rate.
Total payments from the largest companies in the Moscow Exchange index will amount to 2.95 trillion rubles by the end of 2025, predicts Alexander Ugryumov, senior financial markets analyst at Gazprombank Investments. This will be 850 billion rubles less than in the previous year.
Dividends are payments to the owners of shares from the company's profits. Usually, funds are transferred once a year or more often if the organization shows stable profits. The decision on payments is made by the board of directors, and it depends on the financial condition of the company, its development plans and the market situation.
"Following the results of the dividend season in the first half of 2025, the total amount of payments from Russian companies has already decreased by about 500-700 billion rubles compared to the same period in 2024," said Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Cifra Broker.
Companies began to cut their dividends due to the difficult economic situation, said Mikhail Nikonov, Director of Corporate Ratings at Expert RA. Against the background of a slowing economy, the profits of companies are declining, from which dividends are paid. Many market participants are reviewing their shareholder relations policies, giving priority to internal needs.
According to Rosstat, the total profit of Russian enterprises in 2024 decreased by 7% compared to 2023, Mikhail Nikonov said. One of the reasons for the decline in profits is an increase in interest expenses against the background of prohibitive lending rates, analysts at FG Finam noted. Since the beginning of 2024, Russian business has been living in a high inflation environment - by the end of the year it had reached a record 21%. Tight monetary policy has affected the health of all Russian companies, and this impact persists even after the Central Bank cut the interest rate to 20% in early June.
The companies' dividend policy was also influenced by the instability of the ruble exchange rate, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. By the end of 2024, it reached 110 per dollar, and since then the national currency has strengthened by 30% and is now trading around 78 rubles. Some companies suffered from the weakening of the ruble last year, and this year, on the contrary, from its strengthening, depending on the currencies in which they receive income and incur expenses.
Exporters, such as metallurgists, oil companies, and chemical companies, lose some of their profits when the ruble strengthens, as their dollar revenue in rubles becomes less, while costs remain the same. At the same time, importers dependent on foreign purchases — such as retailers, automakers, and pharmaceutical companies — suffer with a weak ruble because they have to pay more for imported goods and raw materials.
In addition, the foreign trade of Russian companies, although temporarily, is still complicated by the introduction of new sanctions packages, Natalia Milchakova recalled. On July 18, the EU agreed on the next, 18th, list of measures against Russia.
How was the 2025 dividend season?
The 2025 dividend season (runs from March to July) It was ambiguous, said Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Cifra Broker. A number of the largest companies refused to pay or significantly reduced them, while only the market leaders significantly increased them.
The largest metallurgical companies, Norilsk Nickel, Alrosa, Severstal, MMK and NLMK, refused to pay dividends for 2024, Finam analysts recalled. The shares of Gazprom, Rusagro, PIK, Aeroplane, Rusal, Unipro and FGC-Rosseti also remain in a non-dividend status. Even PhosAgro, the producer of phosphorus-containing fertilizers, which feels better than others, decided to pay off debts, cut payments for 2024 and did not approve dividends for the first quarter of 2025.
"In the oil and gas sector, they plan to pay dividends for the first half of 2025 closer to the end of the year, but the amounts are likely to be lower due to falling ruble oil prices," Finam said.
Against the background of lower dividends in the commodity sector, banks and consumer companies showed the largest increase in payments, the Digital Broker added. Sber approved record dividends of 787 billion rubles, the retail chain X5 Group allocated 158 billion rubles for payments. Payments from the Moscow Stock Exchange (up to 59.4 billion rubles) and VTB (137 billion rubles) increased especially noticeably — the bank made them for the first time since 2021.
Many companies have limited themselves to moderate amounts, but the fact of regular payments is more important than their size, concluded Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company. This is especially important in an environment where the market is dominated by private investors. It is better to pay a little, but predictably, than alternating large tranches with a complete refusal.: such instability scares investors away.
Which companies will pay dividends in 2026
The forecast for dividend payments in the coming years remains cautiously optimistic. Their volume by the end of 2025 will directly depend on the financial results of the companies, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. The higher the profit, the higher the amount for the shareholders.
"As the key interest rate decreases and issuers begin to refinance loans, the dividend base will recover," Finam analysts emphasized.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that at the July 25 meeting, the Central Bank will reduce the rate to 18%. If it drops to 15% in the future, this will encourage companies to distribute profits more actively, noted in the "Digital Broker".
However, not all industries will be able to quickly return to their previous payout levels. According to Alexander Ugryumov from Gazprombank Investments, metallurgists and oil companies will be under pressure due to high production costs and large-scale investment programs. Their profits remain limited, which means that dividends in these sectors are unlikely to be significant in the near future.
However, in general, the situation may improve in 2026, concluded Oleg Reshetnikov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. A special positive is the hope for a warming in geopolitics, which can significantly make life easier for exporters and support their dividend activity.
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