The burden on Washington: why did Trump use the language of threats to Moscow
The new US restrictions against Russia, which Donald Trump promised to introduce in the absence of progress on the Ukrainian settlement, are not capable of harming the Russian economy. Any tariffs, even at the level of 100%, will be useless, since trade between the countries is at a minimum. And if we are talking about sanctions, then most essential goods have long been produced inside Russia or supplied through states to which the States do not apply their restrictions, the State Duma explained to Izvestia. Meanwhile, sending a new batch of weapons to Kiev, including Patriot systems, will not be able to radically change the situation on the battlefield. Experts do not consider Patriot to be a superweapon and believe that most threats are likely to remain at the level of statements in the end.
The United States and Europe have reached an agreement on military supplies to Ukraine
The American leader Donald Trump warned the public about his intention to make a serious statement about the Ukrainian crisis at the end of last week, on July 11. In an interview with NBC News, he stated that he was "disappointed in Russia," without giving any other hints about the content of his future speech.
However, the date was not chosen by chance, at 10 a.m. on July 14, Trump had an appointment with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The conversation, which was also attended by US Vice President Jay Dee Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, lasted less than an hour.
As a result, Trump complained about the Russian leadership and proposed a number of measures, both military and economic, which, in his opinion, should encourage the Russian Federation to end the conflict.
The American leader complained: "I'm disappointed with President Putin because I thought we would make a deal two months ago, but it doesn't seem to come to that."
However, it is worth noting that the harsh words of the US president on this day were combined with more favorable statements addressed to the Russian leadership. In particular, Trump said that he often talks with the Russian leader about how to end the conflict. At the same time, he noted that negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation are "always very pleasant."
Nevertheless, at the meeting with Rutte, the parties agreed on further plans to provide military assistance to Ukraine. Although two weeks ago, the United States suspended the supply of important weapons to Kiev, including Patriot, Stinger and 155-mm shells. At that time, the Pentagon noted that the American army itself was running out of ammunition amid the escalation in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a meeting in Washington
"Today we have reached an agreement according to which we will send them weapons, and they [European countries] will pay us for them. The United States will not make any payments," Trump said.
Trump clarified that supply coordination would be handled directly by NATO itself, but with the participation of the US Permanent Representative to the alliance, Matthew Whitaker. According to estimates by the Axios portal, Washington will receive about $10 billion from the deal.
According to Rutte, it is "absolutely logical" that European countries should pay for weapons for Ukraine — first they will supply Kiev with what they have, and then they will buy new ones from the United States. Among the parties to the deal are Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, and the Netherlands.
The supply of American weapons will include Patriot installations complete with batteries. Kiev will receive the first such batch of 17 pieces within a few days.
—The delivery of 17 batteries is serious," Dmitry Kornev, editor of the MilitaryRussia portal, tells Izvestia. — These are 17 radars, 17 command posts and at least 60-70 launchers. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to cover Kiev and several other cities. But the question is, where can I get ammunition for all this wealth? Well, Europe will pay for it, and it will help with something from the reserves. But the question is whether the United States is ready to supply such a large number of missiles in order to maintain the combat readiness of all these complexes. They may not be ready. Most likely, we are talking about 17 launchers. And this is not critical, it is not global in order to increase the defense capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
— It is strange that someone still considers the vaunted Patriot to be a superweapon, although, for example, we have already destroyed these American complexes several times in Ukraine - the Dagger pierces them at once. But we are armed with the S-400 Triumph system, which surpasses the American ones in all its tactical and technical characteristics," Alexei Zhuravlev, First Deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, told Izvestia.
At the same time, Moscow can respond symmetrically to the actions of the United States.
— What if the S-400 Triumph system is supplied, for example, to Iran, where, as we understand, permanent protection from Western missiles is needed, or, say, to the Houthis in Yemen, who have even mastered using improvised means to shoot down a lot of American things? I mean, you can play this game with weapons supplies together," the politician concluded.
Potential sanctions against Russia
In addition to military measures, Trump proposes to increase economic pressure on Russia.
"We will impose very severe duties if we do not have a deal within 50 days," he said.
Trump mentioned duties of 100% against Moscow and its trading partners. The Republican noted that he sees the 500% tariffs proposed by some senators as meaningless. The US Department of Commerce clarified that Trump has both sanctions and import tariffs against Russia in his arsenal. But experts agree that when he talked about duties, he meant sanctions.
Such large tariffs look scary, but last year the trade turnover between Russia and the United States amounted to about $3.5 billion, which is a small value for both countries, Daniel Bolotsky, an analyst at BCS World Investments, noted. That is probably why Trump did not mean duties, but sanctions. By the way, this trade turnover is a record low since 1992.
The Moscow Exchange index, reacting to statements from Washington, added 3%, and the ruble practically did not move against the dollar and even slightly strengthened against the yuan.
According to independent expert Andrey Barkhota, secondary sanctions may affect the Russian economy. Such restrictions primarily act as a driver for accelerating inflation, which was almost 9.5% as of July 7, said Andrey Smirnov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. If price growth accelerates, it will have to be restrained by higher rates, in which case the Russian economy will not receive an impetus to growth in the form of a soft monetary policy.
The main flows to America are provided mainly by Russian exports of mineral fertilizers, some metals and limited supplies of energy resources, Andrei Smirnov noted. A separate important article is uranium, which is necessary for nuclear energy. At the same time, Russia's main interest in trade with the United States lies in the field of high-tech products, aircraft, mechanical engineering, and medical equipment, the expert said. In addition, Russia had previously been a leading supplier of titanium and spacecraft engines to the United States for many years, and American institutions were among the key foreign investors in the Russian securities market, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, recalled.
However, the United States is not so much a trading partner of the Russian Federation as one of the most influential states in the world, Andrei Barkhota pointed out. The expert added: American sanctions also represent restrictions for dozens of other US partner states. However, if the countries still manage to reach an agreement, the trade turnover may double to $ 6-8 billion, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.
— De facto, Trump has said that he does not want to impose congressional sanctions yet. The very ones that, according to their plan, should kill the Russian economy. He said he was giving 50 days to "think about it," otherwise he would impose useless, in fact, precautionary tariffs on a small amount of the remaining trade," said Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at Garda Capital.
As Alexey Govyrin, a member of the State Duma Committee on Small and medium—sized Enterprises, noted, scaring the population with statements about "secondary sanctions" is a convenient tool of foreign policy pressure, but these threats hardly touch the average consumer. According to him, the vast majority of essential goods in Russia have long been produced domestically or shipped through countries that the United States does not apply its restrictions to. Foreign trade, especially in energy and raw materials, is a matter for large companies that are able to circumvent obstacles through parallel imports, settlements in national currencies and reorientation of logistics.
— Any new measures against "trading partners" primarily affect large export businesses, rather than the usual trips to the store or online purchases. In addition, any duty is a measure that primarily affects the consumer in the country that introduces it. This was the case in previous rounds of trade wars. Therefore, instead of panicking, you should just watch how the big players adapt — they have done this more than once," he explained to Izvestia.
How will Trump's statements affect the course of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
Statements from Washington do not affect the mood inside Russia, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, said in his Telegram channel. "In 50 days, oh, how much can change on the battlefield, and in the moods of those in power, both in the United States and in NATO. The main thing is that our mood is not affected by the word at all. I think so," he wrote.
Donald Trump is trying to balance between the Western "war party" and the moderates, without slipping into direct confrontation with the Kremlin, LDPR chairman Leonid Slutsky commented on the situation.
"But if Trump really wants progress in the Ukrainian settlement, the fist should be shown to the Zelensky regime, and not promised secondary sanctions against Russia. The leadership of our country has repeatedly stated that it is ready to end the conflict, and all Moscow's proposals are on the negotiating table. We are waiting for the Ukrainian side to agree on the date of the third round of Istanbul-2," Slutsky said.
Meanwhile, when, after talks with Rutte, journalists asked Trump how far he would be willing to go if Vladimir Putin suddenly decided to escalate the conflict, the American president asked not to ask him such questions.
— The United States does not so much need negotiations for the sake of negotiations, they need a result. Trump is aiming for quick success, and if he realizes that he will not be able to achieve quick results, he will most likely abandon such tactics. He's not one of those who has a lot of patience," comments Pavel Zakharov, an American.
According to the expert, the potential introduction of anti-Russian sanctions will negatively affect the negotiation process, as it can demotivate Moscow.
Mark Rutte decided to speak about the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine. The NATO Secretary General recalled that the American side had to make great efforts to start a dialogue in Istanbul and convince Kiev to send a group of high-ranking negotiators there, in contrast to whom Putin sent "a historian who told the story of Russia since 1250."
Commenting on Rutte's words, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted: "Without knowing the history of the issue, no problem can be solved, it can only worsen. The illiteracy of NATO leaders has already led to numerous victims in the world."
As for the third round of negotiations with the Ukrainian side, the dates have not been determined, while Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated its readiness to start them. In particular, on July 14, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, noted: "It is obvious that Kiev is in no hurry. We are still awaiting proposals on the timing." Earlier, direct talks between Russia and Ukraine took place on May 16 and June 2 in Istanbul.
At the same time, some experts believe that Trump will not seriously aggravate relations with Moscow, and the current actions are an attempt to maneuver among the hawks, who are enough in both the Democratic and Republican camps.
Trump's tightening of rhetoric towards Russia is another chapter in the escalation of rhetorical pressure without further significant political action, American scholar Egor Toropov believes. The main purpose of such statements is to speed up the dialogue.
— While Republican interventionist Senator Lindsey Graham announced back in the spring that a bipartisan majority in the Senate would support his sanctions bill and be guaranteed to override the American leader's veto, it was only two months later that Trump, according to his pendulum schedule, warmed to the idea of increasing pressure on Russia. During this time, the Senate also met the American leader halfway, providing in its bill for the president's right to exclude certain goods from a potential trade embargo in the amount of 500% tariffs against countries trading with Russia, the expert says.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already expressed hope for the adoption of new sanctions in August; however, even in this case, Trump will be able to de facto disavow it. Exactly the same fate awaits the next round of escalation in absentia by the United States, which will turn into nothing more than an instrument of political pressure to intensify dialogue processes, the expert explained to Izvestia.
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