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- National status: The Russian Federation has almost completely switched to settlements in rubles with Africa
National status: The Russian Federation has almost completely switched to settlements in rubles with Africa
Russia has almost completely switched to settlements with Africa in rubles — the share has already exceeded 98%, Izvestia found out. And although exports there still amount to tens of billions of dollars, this is an important strategic area for sales of grain, petroleum products and fertilizers. Transactions in national currencies strengthen the role of the ruble in foreign markets and may support its exchange rate in the future. What share the Russian currency can occupy in global calculations by 2030 is in the Izvestia article.
Russia's trade with Africa
The share of the Russian currency in export payments with African countries amounted to 98.3% in April this year, according to data from the Bank of Russia (Izvestia studied). In the last month alone, it increased by almost 8 percentage points, and a year earlier, for comparison, this figure was only 60.5%. Izvestia sent a request to the regulator and asked to assess the likelihood that payments for exports from this continent will completely switch to our currency.
The trade turnover between African states and Russia is growing quite rapidly, although so far these countries cannot be called the main partners of the Russian Federation — they account for less than 10% of our country's foreign trade. In 2023, Russia exported $21 billion worth of its products to Africa, and in 2024 it exported almost $28 billion, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
— A significant part of Russian exports to Africa are wheat and grain crops, which go mainly to Egypt and other northern countries of the continent, as well as machine—building products and the military-industrial complex (MIC), — said Kirill Kononov, analyst at BCS World Investments.
In addition, as Deputy Economy Minister Dmitry Volvach said back in the fall, in 2023, Russia exported oil and its products to Africa, as well as various metals and products made from them.
Russia's role in trade with Africa will continue to grow as the sale of security services increases, which, among other things, will have to stabilize local markets, Kirill Kononov said. In addition, African states are a good springboard for the deployment of military bases, the development of ore deposits, and the production of biofuels, said economist Andrei Barkhota.
But despite the fact that Africa remains an important market for the Russian Federation, our country is not heavily dependent on imports from there, said Alexander Firanchuk, a leading researcher at the International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at the Presidential Academy. The volume of Russian exports is six to seven times higher than imports from the continent.
Despite the existing potential for expanding exports to the continent, both in the segment of the agro—industrial complex (AIC) and in the supply of petroleum products and other low- and medium-grade refined products, businesses need to take into account country financial risks.
According to the Central Bank's April data, Russia has almost entirely switched to rubles in payments for exports to the Caribbean (95%) and Oceania (91%). In addition, the role of the Russian national currency in shipments to Asian countries has increased to almost 50%. For comparison, the share of such calculations was about 37% a year earlier. Payments to America and Europe accounted for 55% and almost 63%, respectively.
How are the settlements between Russia and Africa going?
Due to the sanctions pressure, Russia is actively switching to trading in non-toxic currencies. In total, the share of the ruble in foreign trade settlements has already exceeded 52% — this is a record for the entire time of statistics, it follows from the data of the regulator. The process is particularly active with the BRICS and EAEU countries. For example, 40% of transactions with Egypt are carried out in national currencies, and almost all of them were able to switch to such calculations with Iran. In addition, Russia and Brazil have started trading in national currencies.
As Andrey Barkhota explained, for the purchase of Russian goods, African countries purchase rubles on the foreign exchange market — in the external contour of the Russian Federation. This can happen in two stages: first, the purchase of a dollar for the national currency of the respective countries, and then the conversion of the "American" into rubles.
— It cannot be excluded that the payment in foreign currency takes place only according to the balanced amount. For example, Russia supplies a group of countries with machine-building products, and supplies of uranium and cocoa beans come in return. And the difference is already payable in rubles," the economist added.
The growing share of the ruble in export payments contributes to its introduction into international circulation. Nevertheless, the stability of the exchange rate is important for its consolidation in foreign currency markets, and it is definitely negatively affected by the reduction in hard currency receipts in the Russian Federation.
However, the authorities are not going to control and maintain the ruble exchange rate. On July 2, the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said at the Financial Congress in St. Petersburg that it should be formed on a market basis and take into account the interests of all participants.
"The economy needs a course that reflects the real balance of supply and demand. Of course, exporters would prefer a weaker ruble. But I don't think that citizens or companies involved in importing equipment will agree with this. <...> We must strive for a course that suits not only one side and is achieved not through lobbying, but through the market," the chairman of the regulator emphasized.
On the other hand, the national currencies of many African countries are even more unstable. And the Russian Federation will probably transfer its partners on this continent to rubles, rather than paying them in local monetary units, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global believes.
However, the fact that the ruble can move the dollar from the position of the main currency for cross-border transactions is out of the question, the expert believes. She explained: first of all, the fact is that the ruble is not yet the world's reserve currency.
It can be expected that by 2030-2032, the share of the ruble in international settlements, taking into account, among other things, the growing role of Africa in world trade, may reach 0.7–1%, Natalia Milchakova notes. It may not seem like a lot, but for comparison, the share of the yuan — although it is the world's reserve currency — does not exceed 5%.
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