Right of veto: Slovakia intends to exchange the 18th package of sanctions for gas guarantees

The European Union is unable to adopt the 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions due to Slovakia's position. Brussels is trying to persuade Prime Minister Robert Fico to withdraw the veto, and a high-level delegation will arrive in the republic on July 3. But Bratislava demands guarantees of Russian gas supplies, which the EU intends to abandon by 2027. Slovakia will raise this issue in the European Parliament as well, Lubos Blaha, MEP and deputy chairman of the ruling SMER party, told Izvestia. He noted that Robert Fico obviously intends to postpone the vote on the next package of anti-Russian sanctions until Brussels makes concessions to Bratislava. The Fico government will try to achieve favorable conditions for receiving gas from the Russian Federation and refuse to accept migrants, experts say. About how the EU pushes through the 18th package of restrictions, see the Izvestia article.

Slovakia blocks anti-Russian sanctions

The European Union cannot accept the new package of restrictions in any way — Slovakia is against it. On June 26, Prime Minister Robert Fico vetoed the 18th list of sanctions. According to media reports, it should include restrictions against banks and the energy sector, in particular, Nord Streams.

Slovakia stresses that it cannot support the new restrictions until it receives guarantees to minimize the consequences of stopping gas imports from Russia. In May, the European Commission published a roadmap for the abandonment of Russian energy resources. The document suggests that imports under current short-term contracts should be stopped by June 17, 2026. Deliveries under long-term agreements can be carried out until the end of 2027.

Fico is also confident that the new set of restrictions will not be effective, but will only strengthen Russia. The position of the Slovak Prime Minister is shared by the President of the Republic, Peter Pellegrini, who considers it necessary to start a dialogue with Moscow. Deputies of Slovakia's ruling SMER party will submit to the European Parliament (EP) the issue of continuing Russian gas supplies to the EU. This was stated to Izvestia by the EP deputy and SMER deputy chairman Lubos Blaha.

— Of course, we will do everything possible to have this issue considered in the European Parliament, but there are few hopes for success in this situation. Realistically speaking, there is no chance that the European Parliament in its current composition will reverse the decision to ban the export of energy resources from Russia. This would be a disaster for the entire EU, but for Slovakia in particular," he said.

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The problem is not only the much higher price of raw materials from other sources, but also that Slovakia will have to pay a huge fine for non-compliance with the terms of the contract with Gazprom. Therefore, Bratislava should try to solve this problem in some other way. But there are not many of them, mostly diplomatic instruments, and the last option is the right of veto in the European Council.

— It is this right of veto that they are trying to circumvent by the fact that a majority in the Council must vote for a ban on Russian raw materials, which is actually an arrogant way of telling us: "Shut up and keep your head down." That is why Prime Minister Fico is now trying to at least postpone the vote on the next package of anti-Russian sanctions until the lords in Brussels deal with our serious problem," Blaha said.

The media reports that the 18th list of measures is blocked not only by Slovakia, but also by Hungary. However, while Slovakia is doing this in order to receive guarantees from the European Commission regarding the consequences of completely abandoning Russian gas, Hungary does not set specific conditions.

According to the Lisbon Treaty, foreign policy decisions must be approved by all EU member states. However, due to the veto of Slovakia and Hungary, the European Commission intends not to accept the refusal of gas from the Russian Federation as sanctions, but to use another mechanism — an enhanced qualified majority. It requires the consent of 72% of EU countries, in which at least 65% of the population of the union lives, as well as the majority in the EP. In such circumstances, Bratislava and Budapest will not be able to block the decision.

In recent days, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez have spoken with Robert Fico. On July 3, the European Commission will send a delegation to Slovakia to negotiate on this issue. According to Politico, Bratislava is seeking compensation for transit fees for lost gas and guarantees that local companies will not have to face legal proceedings for breaking off cooperation with Russian enterprises. Earlier, Robert Fico claimed that the Russian side could sue Slovakia for €20 billion if a ban on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU was introduced on January 1, 2028.

What Slovakia and Hungary are trying to achieve

The position of the two republics on Russian gas is related to objective economic factors. The automotive industry accounts for about 15% of Slovakia's GDP and half of the country's exports. The republic produces about 1 million cars a year, and it ranks first in the world in terms of car production per capita. Hungary also produces cars.: Audi, Opel and Suzuki products account for 17% of its total exports. Budapest is also actively engaged in the export of agricultural products. An increase in the cost of energy resources will increase production costs, and the two republics will lose their competitive advantages.

Hungary and Slovakia have signed long-term contracts with Gazprom: until 2034 in the case of Bratislava and until 2036 for Hungary. Budapest plans to import 8-8.5 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia in 2025, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said at the SPIEF. In December 2024, Slovakia paid the maximum amount for two years for Russian pipeline gas — €198 million.

Therefore, Bratislava and Budapest are trying to get concessions from the European Commission, using their veto power as a lever of pressure. There have already been examples of such behavior: Budapest blocked a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine at the end of 2023 and agreed to lift its veto only after concessions from Brussels.

The EU will not be able to completely abandon Russian gas. Most likely, he will establish that the share of fuel from the Russian Federation cannot exceed 10% of gas consumption for the entire association and 20% for a single country. And Fico's actions are related to bargaining for an increase in the share of Russian gas that Slovakia will be allowed, political analyst Vadim Trukhachev told Izvestia.

— Slovakia is already looking for an alternative to Russian gas. For example, she recently signed large contracts for the purchase of Algerian. Some quantity will be purchased from Norway. Purchases from the United States or Canada are unlikely due to the high price, and Azerbaijan will not be able to make up for a lot," the expert noted.

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In addition, the Prime Minister of Slovakia seeks to ensure that Bratislava is not subject to the terms of the EU migration pact. Then the republic will not accept refugees from the Middle East and North Africa. The former socialist republics, which include Slovakia, are not suitable for receiving migrants, while Italy, Spain and France are overflowing with newcomers, Trukhachev emphasizes. Recall that in 2024, the EU Migration and Asylum Pact was approved, which will enter into force in June 2026.

It should be noted that Slovakia and Hungary also do not support restrictions against the Russian nuclear industry. Interestingly, the United States recently lifted sanctions that prevented the construction of the Paks-2 nuclear power plant in Hungary under the Rosatom project. After the change of administration in the United States, Washington began to refrain from introducing new restrictions. Earlier, Donald Trump stated that the administration was not resorting to further restrictions, as there was still a chance of resolving the conflict in Ukraine.