By mutual agreement: Iran and the United States can return to dialogue on the nuclear deal

Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program may resume between Washington and Tehran after the conclusion of a truce. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said earlier that the United States must stop the attacks in order to resume diplomacy. The parties managed to hold five rounds of indirect talks mediated by Oman. The sixth one was canceled after the Israeli attack on June 13, and the new round of discussions is complicated by the lack of trust between Donald Trump and the Iranian leadership. Nevertheless, according to media reports, Tehran has made it clear that it is ready to return to dialogue. The state of the Islamic Republic's nuclear potential after the Israeli and American strikes is described in the Izvestia article.

Iran-US talks

Against the background of the truce reached between Iran and Israel, the prospect of resuming negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program has reappeared. According to the Arab diplomatic source Al-Monitor, Tehran is also ready to negotiate with the US administration. Qatar, which has played a key role in mediating between the warring parties, is being cited as a potential venue for the meeting.

As Al-Monitor has learned, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, personally convinced the Iranian leadership to agree to a cease-fire, and then discussed the possibility of a new diplomatic initiative with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian.

There are still many questions about both the strength of the truce reached and the reality of a return to diplomacy. Nevertheless, the Iranian side has already signaled its readiness for negotiations — even before the official announcement of the truce, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stressed that if the United States is really interested in returning to diplomacy, the attacks on Iran "must be stopped immediately."

Before the escalation, the parties managed to hold five rounds of indirect talks, mediated by Oman. Both restrictions on Tehran's nuclear program and the possibility of a phased lifting of US sanctions were discussed. The sixth round was scheduled for June 15, but was canceled after the start of the Israeli strikes.

— From an objective point of view, the resumption of negotiations on the nuclear deal would be beneficial to Tehran. However, the political situation is not yet conducive to such contacts. In Tehran, most likely, they will take a break, and only eventually, if the situation permits, they can return to dialogue with Washington," Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Center for Near and Middle East Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, shared his opinion with Izvestia.

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At the same time, the expert stressed that any forecasts are difficult now: on the one hand, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the other, US President Donald Trump, and it is extremely difficult to predict the behavior of these politicians.

However, even if the negotiation process is resumed, it will not be easy to discuss the technical side of Iran's nuclear program. According to Western media reports, the American strikes on key Iranian facilities have only partially slowed down the development of the Islamic Republic's nuclear potential. Despite Donald Trump's statements about the "complete destruction" of nuclear facilities, the Pentagon admits that it will take time to assess the real damage.

Meanwhile, changes are taking place in Iran that could complicate the prospect of future negotiations. The country's parliament voted to end cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). According to the Iranian media, from now on, agency employees will not be able to enter the country to inspect nuclear facilities without guarantees of safety for the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities.

The Kremlin said that such a decision was a direct result of an unprovoked attack on Iran. At the same time, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the breakdown in relations between Tehran and the IAEA is of concern to Moscow.

Iran's nuclear potential

According to preliminary data from the New York Times and CNN, which cite US intelligence, Iran's nuclear program has only been set back for a few months as a result of the strikes. According to the American media, even the use of powerful bombs designed to destroy fortified underground facilities did not achieve its goal of destroying the infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program.

Moreover, one of the sources told CNN that Iran had moved stocks of enriched uranium from potentially vulnerable facilities in advance. One of the informants stated: "The centrifuges were largely intact," while another confirmed that the enriched material had been evacuated before the start of the American operation. Trump's special envoy, Steven Witkoff, called the publication of such data treason and demanded an immediate investigation and punishment of those responsible.

According to Vladimir Sazhin, the strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure caused serious damage, even if they did not lead to a complete reset of the program. An underground facility in Fordo was particularly badly damaged. Even if the American "bunker" bombs did not reach the rooms with centrifuges, the concussions from the explosions, according to the expert, could disrupt the operation of the equipment.

— Iranian centrifuges are extremely sensitive mechanisms, and even momentary power outages can disable them, not to mention high—power underground fluctuations. Therefore, even with the physical safety of the equipment, one cannot be sure of its continued operability," the specialist said.

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Iran claims that it proved powerless against nuclear facilities hidden deep under the rocks.

According to him, the Natanz plant, which is less protected than Fordo, turned out to be in an even more serious condition. Sazhin is confident that this facility has suffered serious damage as a result of the attacks. In general, according to him, the current state of Iran's nuclear program has become more complicated and its restoration will require significant time, resources and investments. However, Tehran is unlikely to be able to quickly invest in the resuscitation of nuclear facilities.: Even before the strikes, the country's economy was in a difficult position.

In April, the Guardian reported that the United States, during negotiations with Iran in Oman, allegedly offered Tehran to transfer uranium reserves to Russia. Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow was ready to provide practical assistance to help Tehran and Washington reach an agreement on the nuclear program, including, for example, exporting excess nuclear fuel from Iran for its further adaptation to the production of fuel for reactors. As part of the 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) Russia has exported from Iran all the volumes of enriched uranium stipulated by the JCPOA.

The agenda includes not only restrictions on the level of enrichment and the number of centrifuges, but also guarantees that the agreement will not repeat the fate of the failed JCPOA. And most importantly, we need mutual trust, which neither Iran nor the United States has yet achieved.

The topic of the possible creation of nuclear weapons by the republic looks exaggerated, said Andrei Baklanov, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and Professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. In an interview with Izvestia, the expert noted that Iran does not have the capabilities to turn its developments into a full-fledged military arsenal.

It is not only the Islamic Republic that has suffered as a result of the escalation. In response to the Israeli attacks, Iran shelled the territory of the Jewish state. Despite the fact that a significant part of the rockets were intercepted by the Israeli air defense system, some of the shells reached both military and civilian targets, which led to destruction and casualties.

In particular, social media and individual publications reported hits at the Mossad headquarters and the building of the secret unit 8200 in Herzliya, as well as at the logistics center of the AMAN military intelligence directorate in Glilot. Another target was the Kiria complex in Tel Aviv, the Israeli equivalent of the Pentagon. Due to military censorship, it is not yet possible to accurately determine the scale of the destruction.