"If the rate decreases by 1-2 percentage points, we will not see a significant increase in lending"

The real rate in Russia — the difference between the key rate and inflation — is now abnormally high. So reducing the key rate by even 1-2 percentage points will not significantly change the situation and will not allow lending to increase, Kirill Tsarev, deputy chairman of the Savings Bank, told Izvestia at SPIEF 2025. He also warned that in the fall, there may be a decrease in the number of approvals for applications for preferential mortgages if the authorities do not extend the increased reimbursement for state programs. The top manager announced that soon Sberbank customers who own an iPhone will be able to pay contactless, just by attaching a smartphone to the terminal via Bluetooth. The popularity of investments in cryptocurrency—linked instruments and payments abroad is discussed in Kirill Tsarev's exclusive interview with Izvestia.

"Even if the rates go down, there won't be many people coming to the banks"

— The central bank lowered the key rate to 20% — has the market cooled down enough or not yet? What is happening with consumer loans now?

— Consumer lending has been cooling for quite a long time, because at fairly high interest rates we see a significant slowdown in the growth of loans. If we look at lending to individuals as a whole, then the only potential for this growth is preferential mortgages, because the rate for citizens is lower or at the level of inflation. Thus, preferential mortgages are economically justified.

When we talk about consumer loans at rates above 24-25%, objectively we see a significant slowdown in the market. And reducing the key interest rate by 1 percentage point will not lead to the rapid development of consumer lending. That is, we are probably on a conditional day in terms of output volumes.

At the same time, in order for consumer loans to start growing, a different level of rates is needed in principle. This applies to reducing not only the key rate, but also deposit rates. Then, as a result, interest rates on loans will decrease.

— What do you think, approximately what level can consumer loans, mortgages, and car loans reach by the end of the year?

— If we are talking about mortgages, then we will see a steady growth in the portfolio. Although the volume of disbursements for this year alone will probably be less.

We are currently recording a reduction in portfolios. In other words, we are giving out significantly less than we did last year or two years ago. Thus, we are getting a gradual gradual decrease in portfolios in consumer lending.

If we are talking about car loans, then also after a fairly large boom last year, we see a significant slowdown in this. But it is not only the rate that affects it, but also the demand. Because last year, before the introduction of recycling, there was a rush when people took a large number of cars. Now the demand has decreased, and the rate is not attractive. If the key rate decreases in the second half of the year, we will see a certain increase in lending. But not significant.

— Do you already have calculations, what will be the situation if the key rate is 15%, if 10%? Yesterday we talked with the head of the Russian support, Alexander Kalinin, and he said that the rate should be unambiguous, that is, less than 10%.

— Probably, now it is more correct to use the concept of "real interest rate" — this is, in fact, "key minus inflation". We see that it is abnormally high, and in such a situation there will always be a model of maximum savings. Therefore, I think if the rate is reduced by 1-2 percentage points, we will not see a significant increase in lending. With the exception of mortgages, it will develop in a slightly different direction, simply because the presence of government programs with a different level of rates, in fact, takes them out of the management perimeter through the key one.

It is important for us to understand correctly what the rate level should be, and to manage interest rate risk competently. Therefore, in this case, if the rate decreases more dynamically, we will, of course, receive a certain growth in the portfolio. If it decreases slowly, we will see approximately the current situation with a slight improvement.

And we should not forget that in addition to the rate, over the past year, and partially, this Central Bank introduced a whole set of additional requirements for banks on macroproductive limits. In addition to the rate, lending to individuals is limited by their high debt burden. No bank today can, for example, issue products to customers with a marginal debt burden of more than 80%. Thus, even if the rates go down, we will not have such a large number of people who will be able to take a lot of money.

"The government is systematically moving towards more targeted mortgage programs"

— You have already started talking about preferential mortgages. In mid-May, Sberbank canceled the commission for developers on preferential mortgage lending programs. But German Gref warned that this could lead to a sharp drop in the volume of disbursements, which indeed happened. When can this be fixed? Are the authorities preparing something to change this?

— We actually canceled all commissions for developers, and in May we saw a decrease in disbursements by about 10%. We don't consider it that significant for two reasons. First of all, for half a month we still had decisions on where these commissions were. And, accordingly, we actually lived by the same rules for part of the month. Secondly, now, due to the reduction in the cost of money, we have a certain maneuver in terms of profitability.

But let me remind you that the government has decided to provide additional compensation to banks in the amount of 1-1.5%, depending on the programs that are in effect until August. If we do not have an extension of this additional compensation in August, then we will indeed see a more serious reduction in the volume of preferential mortgage approvals.

— A program is currently being developed for its participants at 2%, with a 20% initial payment. How do you assess the potential of this program, what market share can it occupy and how will it affect the cost of housing?

— It seems to me that the government is systematically moving towards more targeted programs, and this is a good thing. Now we see family, Far Eastern, Arctic, and IT programs, and there will be a free program. I think this is the right decision. A certain category of citizens gets the opportunity to apply for a loan at a discounted rate. I don't think this will have a significant impact on the housing market as a whole, on the one hand. On the other hand, it will help citizens improve their living conditions.

"Our task is to build a whole set of tools"

— How is the launch of the new Sberbank program, which will allow contactless iPhone payments via Bluetooth? When do you expect a full launch?

— We are engaged in a large number of different developments and solutions. We've done biometrics, we've done MultiQR. Our main task is to be constantly on trend and come up with something new for our clients to make it interesting. At the same time, we bring products to the market only when they are truly ready and working at 100%. I hope we will be able to please you in the near future.

— The Central Bank recently did the unthinkable — it allowed the launch of tools related to cryptocurrency. And the Savings Bank launched structural bonds, the yield of which is linked to bitcoin. How promising is this area specifically for Russia?

— The Central Bank has been discussing various options for a long time. He is carefully looking at how to properly make the appropriate regulation so that it does not turn out to be some kind of black hole. We look at it quite positively.

We have made the first product — it complies with the legislation of the Russian Federation. In our opinion, this is great, we see interest from customers. Of course, these products must be made, and they must be made according to the law, otherwise some of the customers themselves, looking for ways to invest, fall into gray areas or try to invest outside the country. Our task is to build a whole set of tools that will work for us.

— And the last question: how do you develop cross-border transfers and payments through SBP? In how many countries have you already implemented this feature?

— Traditionally, we don't really like to talk about cross-border transfers, because as soon as we do, they start to be turned off somewhere. I recommend that you open Sberbank Online and watch it at a specific time. There are a lot of different directions there. And in principle, we strive to ensure that our citizens are not constrained by being in different parts of the world.

We have all kinds of transfers in many countries, and there are countries where QR codes even work. It's a cat-and-mouse game. It's no secret that there are various attempts to block our actions. But today, the number of countries is growing, which is the most important thing. And we see that customers use these services.