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- American buy: during the year of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, investments in the dollar have halved
American buy: during the year of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, investments in the dollar have halved
In the year since the sanctions were imposed on the Moscow Exchange, Russians' investments in foreign currencies have halved, according to the Central Bank. In the first five months of 2025, the population bought them for only 386 billion rubles. Now the main transactions are carried out by major players — exporters and banks. Because of this, there are more drastic fluctuations in the exchange rate. Now the market reacts more slowly to external shocks and is more stuck in extreme positions. Over the year, the national currency has strengthened by one and a half times. What will happen next with the market and the ruble exchange rate is in the Izvestia article.
How the dollar and the euro are trading in Russia against the backdrop of sanctions
Russians began to invest much less in the dollar and the euro a year after the Moscow Exchange was included in the US sanctions lists. In the first five months of 2025, citizens bought only 386 billion rubles worth of foreign currency. This is almost twice lower than last year's figure, according to the Central Bank. Then, from January to June, the population transferred almost 700 billion to foreign currency.
Ultimately, this supports the ruble. So, at the auction on June 11, its exchange rate reached 78.8 per "American" — 30% more than at the beginning of the year.
On June 12, 2024, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions against the Moscow Exchange group, including the National Clearing Center (NCC). The latter served as the central counterparty in the Russian financial market. After the United States banned the NCC from conducting transactions in dollars and euros, their exchange trading in the Russian Federation ceased.
Transactions with "toxic" currency have moved to the over—the-counter market - banks, exchangers and financial companies directly negotiate the cost of transactions without a centralized platform. To determine the official exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the ruble, the Central Bank began to set the official exchange rate daily based on data from the previous trading day.
According to the results of the first quarter in the Russian Federation, there was a decline in demand for foreign currency in the domestic market, according to the Bank of Russia's "Financial Market Risk Review". In April, banks purchased the minimum amount of currency since the termination of trading in dollars and euros on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
The demand of the population is also falling, according to the data of the Central Bank. In April, Russians bought 28% less foreign currency than in March. The indicator as a whole turned out to be at a lower level compared to the last two years.
How has the market changed due to sanctions against the Moscow Stock Exchange
Investors' interest in trading dollars and euros has really decreased, said Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the investment company Rikom-Trust. According to him, not all retail investors are ready to operate the currency on the over-the-counter market. In addition, customers are put off by too large spreads — the difference between the prices for buying and selling currencies.
In April, they reached 2.73 rubles for the dollar, according to the Central Bank. However, in some Russian exchangers they can approach five rubles. This means that it will be possible to sell a "toxic" currency profitably only if it increases in price by the amount of the spread.
— Indirectly, the demand for the currency can be judged by the exchange—traded yuan - volumes have fallen by a third over the year. This means that the drop in the dollar and euro on the "over—the-counter" is even greater," added Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.
Interest in dollar trading is also decreasing because the foreign currency has been continuously falling in price relative to the ruble since the beginning of the year, Dmitry Lesnov, Deputy General Director for brokerage at Finam Financial Group, recalled.
At the same time, legal entities still do not stop using foreign currency to conduct business. The press service of Sber reported that the bank has significantly increased the volume of transactions with unfriendly currencies. Over the year, its customer base has grown by 25-30%.
This may be due to the fact that exporters in the Russian Federation are required to sell part of the foreign currency earnings received abroad within the country. This rule was introduced to stabilize the ruble exchange rate and maintain liquidity in the domestic market, and it also ensures the inflow of foreign money to Russia under sanctions.
What will happen to the ruble exchange rate by the end of 2025
Before the Moscow Exchange and the NCC were sanctioned by the United States, there were many small transactions on the foreign exchange market, said economist Andrei Barkhota. Due to this, it was more stable and less susceptible to exchange rate fluctuations. After the transition to the over—the-counter trading format, large transactions between large financial organizations - banks and exporters - began to prevail.
Because of this, the foreign exchange market turned out to be less stable. If earlier it contributed to financial stability, then after the cessation of organized trading in the dollar and the euro it became one of the sources of imbalance, Andrei Barkhota believes. An example of this could be the sharp and uncontrolled strengthening of the national currency — since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen from 115 to 78 rubles. The market has become less mobile and it is much easier to get stuck in extreme positions, the expert emphasized.
— Usually, when the dollar exchange rate drops, Russians begin to actively buy it, but now even this is not happening, — said Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Cifra Broker.
The main source of market stability now is banks, Dmitry Lesnov from Finam is sure. At the same time, in his opinion, the economy as a whole has already adjusted to the restrictions.
Trading volumes can grow against the background of a further depreciation of the ruble, said Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. According to him, the inflow of foreign currency to Russia may decrease due to the consistent decline in oil prices ($ 67 per barrel of Brent). On the contrary, its outflow may increase due to the recovery of imports against the background of a reduction in the key rate to 20% in June.
"By the end of the summer, the dollar may return to the range of 85-90 rubles, and the yuan to 11.5—12 rubles," Mikhail Zeltser summed up.
However, the peak of instability in the foreign exchange market has not yet passed, Andrei Barkhota added. Additional jumps in the future are also likely, and by the end of the year the ruble may well weaken significantly.
The situation in the foreign exchange market will depend only on the dynamics of exchange rates — its infrastructure will not change, Dmitry Lesnov concluded. It is unlikely that the sanctions against the Moscow Stock Exchange will be lifted against the background of warming relations between the Russian Federation and the United States, but only this option would help to fundamentally change the situation.
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