Promised to return: Russians will receive a record cashback in six months of 2025
Russians will receive a record amount of cashback for the first half of 2025. According to VTB's forecast, banks will transfer 220 billion rubles to citizens. For comparison, over the past year, the largest credit institutions have paid 300 billion. Market participants have confirmed that the amount of cashback this year will be the maximum. This is due to the fact that Russians have begun to monitor loyalty programs more closely, and people are trying to make the most of them in the face of rising inflation. Cashback is now valued more than the reliability of the bank. Whether players will worsen the conditions of loyalty programs against the background of lower profits and commission income is discussed in the Izvestia article.
How much cashback will Russians receive in 2025
In the first six months of 2025, Russians will receive about 220 billion rubles in cashback. This is stated in the VTB study, which is available to Izvestia. They analyzed loyalty programs across the market, and equated bonuses and miles to rubles.
At the same time, last year the largest banks transferred only about 300 billion rubles to Russians, and in 2023 — about 200 billion rubles. By the end of this year, the amount may amount to 450-500 billion, VTB estimated.
The largest banks confirmed the growth. In Novikom, cashback payments to customers for the first five months of this year amounted to 273 million rubles, which is 2.3 times higher than in the same period of the previous year.
Sovcombank noted a 70% increase in the amount of cashback. In four months of 2025, 1.9 billion cashback points were transferred there, which can be exchanged for rubles at a one-to-one exchange rate. They expect maximum payments this year.
Dom.rf Bank also predicts a record amount. In the first five months of 2025, the volume of cashback paid to customers turned out to be 35% more than in the same period of the previous one, said Daria Morozova, director of retail products at the financial institution.
Russians have begun to monitor loyalty programs more closely. They choose the bank that allows them to receive tangible benefits in everyday expenses, said Roman Sinenko, head of the VTB Loyalty Program department.
Every third customer pays attention to cashback when choosing a bank card, as can be seen from a study by the analytical company Frank RG. The amount of bonuses was noted as a priority more often than the convenience of the application and the reliability of the bank.
The main reasons for the increase in cashback are inflation, the growth of non—cash payments and competition between banks, Alexey Voylukov, MBA professor of business practice in digital finance at the Presidential Academy, told Izvestia. According to him, players are actively using payments, despite the decrease in profitability of operations and rising infrastructure costs, as well as the need to comply with regulatory requirements such as the introduction of the digital ruble and the development of new payment services.
The increase in the amount of accrued cashback is also caused by an increase in consumer spending, according to independent expert Andrey Barkhota.
Prices of goods in some popular categories among Russians (supermarkets, cafes, gas stations) have increased by 20% over the year. This caused an increase in cashback payments in rubles, Andrei Barkhota explained. In his opinion, payments to Russians for the whole of 2025 may reach 450-520 billion rubles.
Will banks worsen loyalty programs
Today, banks are trying not to reduce the cashback rate, but to limit the ceiling on the amount of accrued bonuses, Andrei Barkhota drew attention. He called technological payment methods — by QR code or by face - a brake on the growth of such payments.
— In the case of such payments, the accrual of cashback is by no means guaranteed. Despite the small average receipt for such operations, they are regular and routine in nature and can reduce the potential amount of payments by 5-15%," predicted Andrey Barkhota.
In addition, some banks' profits are declining, especially for those who depend on commission income or face rising transaction costs, added Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In his opinion, a radical deterioration in the conditions of loyalty programs should not be expected, however, some market participants are already starting to reduce cashback payment limits to 3-5 thousand rubles per month, exclude expensive categories, and introduce paid subscriptions for increased cashback, the analyst added.
In the future, banks will abandon aggressive cashback dumping in an attempt to lure customers away from each other, as this leads to higher costs per customer. Rather, they will switch to more accurate and flexible loyalty programs without worsening conditions, predicts Alexey Voylukov. This approach will allow banks to maintain the profitability of operations (enough to pay cashback) and at the same time retain customers in their ecosystem.
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