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- Gasoline engine: the growth in the number of Chinese cars has raised prices for AI-92
Gasoline engine: the growth in the number of Chinese cars has raised prices for AI-92
The exchange value of AI-92 increased by 4.5% from May to June, while the cost of diesel fuel decreased by 3.48% over the same period. Experts interviewed by Izvestia attributed the multidirectional dynamics to a decrease in gasoline production of this type and an increase in the number of Chinese-made cars. Diesel fuel prices are declining amid a decrease in business traffic, which indicates a slowdown in the economy, the industry believes. In general, the domestic market is fully supplied with automotive fuel, according to regulators. However, experts do not rule out a slow increase in costs in the summer, as retail prices do not reach the minimum economically reasonable 1.5–2 rubles per liter.
Multidirectional movement
Exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline increased by 4.5% over the past month, from 56,174 to 58,739 rubles per 1 ton. AI—95 increased by 0.84% over the same period, from 61,364 rubles to 61,881 rubles per 1 ton. At the same time, the price of summer diesel fuel decreased by 3.43%, from 60,184 to 58,118 rubles per 1 ton. This is evidenced by the data of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and the calculations of Izvestia.
In the retail segment, prices showed more restrained dynamics. According to Rosstat, as of April 28, the average price of AI-92 gasoline in Russia was 56.46 rubles per liter, for AI-95 — 61.68 rubles, for DT — 71.25 rubles per liter. By June 2, the growth was 0.4%, 0.4% and 0.19%, respectively.
According to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, the situation in the fuel market indicates a decline in retail sales.
— According to various estimates, in April-May 2025, this decrease amounted, depending on the region, to 5% compared to last year. There was no traditional surge in consumption during the May holidays. The reduction in the volume of the strait is recorded by both VINK and independent gas stations. At the same time, strict government control over retail prices remains in place," the source notes.
According to him, among all the goods in the daily basket, gasoline and diesel are subject to the least volatility.
— The explanation for this is on the surface: for many years, the Russian government has been communicating to oil companies a directive on the inadmissibility of retail price increases above the official inflation rate. And this rule is fulfilled, despite the fact that companies are sometimes forced to work at a loss. This is especially true for independent gas stations that are not part of the system of vertically integrated oil companies," says Yuri Stankevich.
According to Rosstat, inflation in the Russian Federation from May 27 to June 2, 2025 was 0.05% after 0.06% from May 20 to May 26, 0.07% from May 13 to May 19, 0.06% from May 6 to May 12 and 0.03% from April 29 to May 5.
Premium period
In the domestic market today, there is a clear out-of-sync in the dynamics of prices for different types of motor fuels, which is due to a number of reasons. According to a number of experts, the decline in diesel fuel sales is due to a slowdown in the economy.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, recalls that diesel fuel remains more commercial than consumer.
— This is a BtB market, rather than BtC. And given that the Central Bank's key rate makes it almost impossible to obtain loans for businesses, the economy is slowing down, and this primarily affects transportation. Therefore, a decrease in diesel consumption is an indicator that the economy is slowing down," the expert notes.
At the end of October 2024, the Central Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 21%. On June 6, the regulator decided to reduce it to 20%.
At the same time, Dmitry Gusev notes that in the last two years Chinese cars have become widespread in Russia, many of which can use 92nd gasoline.
According to the GlobalData consulting company, in April 2025, car sales in China increased by 12% compared to the previous year: 2,055,153 cars were sold during the month. At the same time, almost all Chinese cars are allowed to use AI-92 gasoline.
Tamara Safonova, General Director of the independent analytical agency NAANS-MEDIA, recalled that AI-92 gasoline has always been quoted below summer diesel fuel.
— Now he's going through a premium period. This trend is observed against the background of a shortage of gasoline due to trends in reducing the production of this type of fuel. In general, the drop in fuel prices is due both to lower oil prices on the domestic market and to state control during agricultural work, Tamara Safonova believes.
What to expect from the market in summer
In general, Izvestia's interlocutors believe that in the near future we should not expect any radical fluctuations in prices on the fuel market.
— As for the forecast for the summer season, I believe that everything will be plus or minus like last year. Export ban measures are working, control meetings are held weekly," Dmitry Gusev emphasized.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, does not rule out price increases in the summer.
— If incomes are lower than expected now, the government has the tools to fix the situation. And one of them is the cancellation of payments on the damper. So far, this decision has not been made and the Cabinet of Ministers declares that it is not considering it. However, such a turn of events cannot be ruled out. And in this case, oil companies can afford large fluctuations in fuel prices on the stock exchange," the analyst believes.
Currently, the damper is paid only if the average wholesale fuel price for the month has not increased by more than the indicative (conditional domestic) 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel. The indicative price in 2025 is 60,450 rubles per 1 ton for gasoline and 57,200 rubles for diesel fuel. At the same time, the government is considering expanding the permitted range of wholesale fuel prices, which retains the right to a damper to 15-20% and 25-30% for gasoline and diesel, respectively.
The Ministry of Energy told Izvestia that the domestic market is fully supplied with automotive fuel. According to the energy department, today gasoline inventories at refineries and oil depots reach 1.8 million tons, which is 2% higher than at the beginning of 2024. Diesel fuel storage volumes remain at the level of last year and amount to 3.3 million tons.
— The Government of the Russian Federation continues to implement a set of measures aimed at maintaining a stable price situation and reliable supply of motor fuel to consumers. Among the key regulatory mechanisms is a system of damping payments that smooths the impact of world prices on the domestic market, temporary restrictions on the export of motor fuel for non—producers, as well as the establishment of mandatory fuel sales standards at stock exchanges, the press service of the Ministry of Energy noted.
Izvestia has sent inquiries to major oil refining companies.
According to Yuri Stankevich, as a result, retail prices currently fall short of the minimum economically reasonable 1.5–2 rubles. In the summer, the expert concluded, slow growth is quite realistic, while the demand for fuel will be fully satisfied by the supply.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
