"We should not expect serious changes in policy towards the Russian Federation"

The victory of the candidate from the Democratic Party in the elections in South Korea may have a positive impact on relations between Moscow and Seoul, but much will depend on the position of the United States, experts say. After counting over 99%, Lee Jae-myung leads with a score of 49.36%. His closest pursuer, Kim Moon-soo of the disgraced Yoon Seok-young's ruling conservative People's Power Party, is gaining 41.19%. Recently, Lee Jae-myung spoke out against excessive hostility towards Russia and China. He also traditionally advocates inter-Korean dialogue, which is now practically non-existent. However, for the sake of its resumption, the future authorities may "sacrifice" the Russian direction, since Washington does not benefit from Seoul's rapprochement with Pyongyang and Moscow at the same time.

"Russia is far from being at the top of the list of priorities of South Korean politics"

The outcome of the presidential election will not radically affect the relationship between Moscow and Seoul, believes Alexander Solovyov, a Korean researcher and lecturer at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.:

"We should not expect any serious changes in policy towards Russia, despite the fact that representatives of the progressive establishment close to Lee Jae-myung said that the country would consider ways to improve relations with Russia. Judging by the public statements of politicians and published documents, Russia is far from being at the top of the list of priorities of South Korean politics.

With the victory of the conservatives, perhaps in a milder form, but still the same policy that was under former President Yoon Seok-yeol will be continued.

The outcome of the presidential election may affect relations with the DPRK. Of course, it won't happen right away. The traditional difference between the approach of South Korean conservatives, aimed at strategic deterrence of the DPRK through a show of force, and the policy of progressives to involve North Korea in inter-Korean relations will have an impact on the future policy of the South.

But to a much greater extent, the situation on the Korean peninsula will be affected by the possible escalation of the confrontation between China and the United States. It must also be admitted that the South looks with great concern at the development of military-technical cooperation between Russia and the DPRK and sees this as an indirect threat to itself. Therefore, he will try to think of tools for strategic counter-actions."

"Should one be perceived as a pro-Russian politician with caution"

Lee Jae-myung publicly pursues a relatively loyal policy towards the Russian Federation, but in fact, Democrats criticize Moscow for the situation in Ukraine in the same way as conservatives, said Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the ICSA RAS.:

"Lee was probably the only candidate who said anything at all about relations with Russia and mentioned that they needed to be developed somehow. He is also going to re-establish the committee on Northern policy or the Eurasian Initiative. However, it should be understood that Lee Jae—myung is a populist who is now trying to work with everyone who communicates with him, including the Russian side, and he and his entourage are giving them signals that everything will be fine.

Therefore, Lee should be treated with caution as a pro-Russian politician. Firstly, the media associated with the Democrats, as well as the conservative ones, spoke harshly about the conflict in Ukraine. Secondly, he will need to prove to Trump that he is "one of his own", and therefore the question arises to what extent they will or will not "sacrifice" the Russian direction.

As for inter-Korean relations, the situation here is even more specific. In order to start an inter-Korean dialogue, South Korea will need to negotiate with the United States. And in order, perhaps, to open this direction, close it and "sacrifice" some other one. And here, alas, the Russian may turn out to be the most convenient bargaining chip."

To leave and not return: The Constitutional Court of Korea approved the impeachment of the president

The country is waiting for early elections, the opposition has the highest chances.

"Lee Jae-myung is determined to resume dialogue with the DPRK"

Lee Jae-myung's victory gives more reason to hope for a more constructive approach by the leadership of the Republic of Korea to fully restore Russian-Korean relations, as well as dialogue between Seoul and Pyongyang, says Alexander Vorontsov, head of the Korea and Mongolia Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.:

"Lee Jae-myung is determined to resume dialogue with the DPRK on a more constructive basis, but the right-wing conservative forces that continue the course of impeached President Yoon Sok-young have destroyed the foundation of inter-Korean relations, which was created by Yoon Sok—young's predecessor, Moon Jae-in. Lee Jae-myung is likely to continue Moon Jae-in's course. Then the chances of normalization of inter-Korean relations will increase."