Payment is difficult: overdue consumer loans jumped by one and a half times
Overdue consumer loans increased one and a half times last year - up to 150 billion rubles, Izvestia has found out. Inflation is making it increasingly difficult for people to service their loans. At the same time, interest rates are high and there is no possibility to refinance the loan at a more favorable interest rate. In the portfolio, delinquency is already almost 2%, the UCB said: although the figure seems small, it is a record for the last few years. The trend is worrisome, as the key interest rate is not planned to be lowered. How the Bank of Russia can apply alternative tools to regulate lending, about which even the President spoke - in the material "Izvestia".
Why credit delinquency is increasing
The level of overdue debt on cash loans last year increased one and a half times and reached 1.8%. This follows from the data of the United Credit Bureau (UCB), which Izvestia has. The indicator has been steadily growing throughout 2024, while before that it was at least three years around the level of 1.1%.
At the same time, the total amount of debt of Russians on cash loans from the beginning of 2024 grew only until the third quarter - from 8.9 trillion to 9.3 trillion rubles, according to the UCB data. And in the fourth quarter it fell sharply by 10%, to Br8.4 trillion. A strong decline in this indicator by the end of the year was also noted in the National Bureau of Credit Histories.
From these data it follows that the volume of overdue debt on the portfolio of cash loans in 2024 increased from about 98 billion rubles to 150 billion rubles, that is, about 54%, calculated "Izvestia" on the basis of data from the credit bureaus.
Russians are finding it increasingly difficult to repay loans due to high inflation, said Inna Soldatenkova, head of expert analytics at Banki.ru. Prices increased by an average of 10% in early February 2025 to the same period last year, said Pavel Biryukov, chief economist at Gazprombank.
At the same time, income growth has already started to slow down last year, which means that people's spending has increased in real terms, said Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Because of this, people may have had difficulty servicing their earlier debts.
The growth of delinquency in the portfolios of banks is also explained by the general indebtedness of the population, which has reached historic highs, said Venera Shaidullina, an economist at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University. According to December data, the total amount of citizens' debts to banks, including mortgages, is Br37 trillion.
It is also important how these debts are distributed among people, said economist Alexei Krichevsky. As a rule, the most indebted citizens have slower income growth, so it's increasingly difficult for them to cope with loans.
Problems could arise for those who, for example, in 2023 took loans at 20-25% in the hope that soon the rate will begin to decline and they will be able to refinance. However, from mid-2024, the key rate started to increase again - already up to a record 21% in October - and people had to go into arrears.
Problem debts are growing faster than quality debts
Overdue debt "matures" in the statistics of banks with a delay of about three months, said Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. That is, for assets that were displayed as "problematic" by the end of 2024, delays in payments could have appeared as early as summer. This means that the delinquency statistics may continue to deteriorate.
Demand for new loans in the fourth quarter fell heavily due to the increase in the key rate to 21%, said UCB CEO Mikhail Aleksin. Banks had to reduce new loans, and as a result, the portfolio of cash loans shrank significantly.
In addition, the Central Bank has strengthened restrictions against borrowers, recalled Vladimir Chernov. If at the beginning of 2024 limits on the share of customers who spend 50-80% of their income on debt service, could be no more than 25% of the volume of issuance for the quarter, then by the end of the year it fell to 15%. This forces banks to limit lending and issue new loans only to the most reliable borrowers, which makes their portfolios grow slower and slower.
- Taking into account the situation on the market, we are now more carefully assessing the solvency of clients to prevent possible delinquencies in advance, - confirmed in the press service of VTB.
If in January 2024 banks approved 22% of applications for consumer loans, then in January 2025 their share decreased to 5%, "Izvestia" wrote earlier.
What can stop the growth of delinquency
Due to the tightening of regulation of the Central Bank banks reduce the issuance of new loans, and due to the growth of inflation is growing delinquency on old loans, said Andrei Barkhota. This situation creates a vicious circle, because of which the share of bad debts on the balance sheet of banks may continue to grow even faster.
The exit from the downward credit cycle may not be quick - for comparison, a similar trend in the market appeared in 2013, and the turning point towards quality loans occurred only in 2017, the expert added. But sooner or later the regulator's restrictions will bear fruit.
Due to the growth of delinquency in the portfolio, banks are forced to allocate more funds to loan provisions to prevent possible losses, said Vladimir Chernov. All this reduces the profitability of credit organizations, because attracting liabilities from the population is now very expensive - deposit rates, according to "Izvestia", average 21% for terms of three to 12 months. All this may push the market to increase the cost of new loans, concluded Vladimir Chernov.
Central Bank's tools to fight inflation
Statistics on overdue debt suggest that raising the key rate for the entire market at once may not be the only effective tool. Vladimir Putin in December urged the Central Bank to use "all tools to fight inflation." The regulator is already actively applying quantitative restrictions on loans to highly indebted borrowers, so delinquency is unlikely to grow too high in the future.
An alternative to further growth of the key rate may be an increase in the mandatory reserve ratio, which will reduce the banks' ability to increase lending, as well as the impact on the foreign exchange market and support the ruble exchange rate.
Inflation growth is largely associated with the rise in the price of imports, said Andrei Barkhota. At the same time, with the strengthening of the national currency, all goods purchased abroad will be cheaper in the ruble equivalent - this will at least reduce costs for importers, but also over time will be translated into product prices, said Vladimir Chernov. The Central Bank is able not only to directly influence the currency market, but also to influence it verbally - for example, by adding the ruble exchange rate forecast to its estimates.
The Central Bank should apply all effective measures to reduce the rate of price growth in the country, emphasized Vladimir Chernov. Nevertheless, for the time being, the key rate hike remains the main tool to curb demand, and the effectiveness of this method has been proven by practice - in time it will help to slow down the inflation rate, concluded the Plekhanov Russian Economic University.
All this should cool down lending and make it of higher quality, which should eventually reduce inflation. According to Andrei Barkhota, if the effects manifest themselves quickly, the market expects the regulator's policy to soften already in the second half of 2025.
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