Military offset: why the UAE is investing in Israel's military-industrial complex
Abu Dhabi considers investments in the Israeli defense sector as a tool to diversify the sources of arms supplies, Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, head of the Emirates' political center, explained to Izvestia. She emphasized: these steps are not related to the current geopolitical situation, but are dictated by the country's strategic goals. Earlier, the UAE-based EDGE Group bought a 30% stake in the Israeli defense firm ThirdEye Systems. For the Jewish state, normalization of relations with its Arab neighbors remains an important foreign policy priority. Nevertheless, the specifics of contacts with Israel do not allow to completely overcome mutual distrust. In what areas cooperation with Israel may be the most attractive for Arab countries - in the material of "Izvestiya".
Cooperation between Israel and the UAE
The UAE is expanding its presence in the global defense sector: the leading Emirati military-industrial holding EDGE Group acquired a 30% stake in the Israeli company ThirdEye Systems, specializing in the development of artificial intelligence technologies and autonomous security systems.
In a conversation with Izvestia, Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, head of the Emirates' political center, stressed that investments in Israel's defense sector are in line with the country's long-term interests.
Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President of the Emirates Political Center
- The UAE is seeking to diversify the sources of arms supplies in order to strengthen the army. This has nothing to do with current events in the region, that is a different issue. The reason for the investment was the need to diversify weapons," Ebtesam Al-Ketbi noted.
Indeed, the UAE forms one of the most advanced militaries in the region. In recent years, it has been actively developing its own arms production, including armored vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles and air defense systems.
President of the Emirates Political Center Ebtesam Al-Ketbi
The country's modern armed forces number about 50,000 servicemen, a significant part of whom are foreign nationals. This allows the Emirates to compensate for the lack of local human resources and rely on the experience of foreign specialists.
How Israel attracts Arabs
The rapprochement between the UAE and Israel in the defense sector became possible after the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. This historic document normalized diplomatic relations between the countries, opening the way to economic and technological cooperation.
Since then, the countries have been actively developing partnerships in sectors such as cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and unmanned systems. EDGE is considered the largest arms manufacturer in the UAE. The holding is owned by the government. In 2021, it was announced that it will jointly develop unmanned vessels with Israel Aerospace Industries.
President Donald Trump with Bahraini Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, Sept. 15, 2020.
The UAE has traditionally purchased weapons from the US, France, South Korea and Turkey. However, in recent years, Abu Dhabi has sought to reduce its dependence on individual suppliers in order to strengthen its technological sovereignty.
In addition, cooperation with Israel gives the UAE access to advanced military technologies that were previously unavailable to Arab states. These include artificial intelligence and autonomous systems in the security sector, drones for reconnaissance and patrols, surveillance and analytics technologies based on machine learning.
Against the backdrop of intensified cooperation between the two countries, media reports in recent years have reported that the Israelis, with the support of the UAE, were even considering establishing an intelligence base on the island of Socotra, located at the entrance to the Red Sea, 400 kilometers south of Yemen.
Economic ties between Israel and the UAE also remain strong, despite public Emirati criticism of the Israeli government for its actions in Gaza and Lebanon. In 2023, trade between Israel and the UAE amounted to $2.95 billion. At the same time, having actually led the process of Arab-Israeli normalization within the framework of the Abraham Accords, the UAE insists that such interaction does not contradict its principled position on the non-alternative of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as well as its commitment to UN Security Council resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative.
- The Gulf states are beginning to undertake fundamental reforms in their economies and are adopting forward-looking plans, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2040. These programs involve restructuring the economy to be more high-tech. The military sphere always provides an incentive for developed industries," Yelena Melkumyan, a leading researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.
According to her, Israel is a favorable partner for the Gulf; it is a technologically highly developed state with a very powerful military industry that exports to many countries.
- These countries may have common security threats, such as the Houthis. Maritime security is one area of cooperation with Israel. There are other radical and extremist groups, and the fight against terrorism remains urgent for the whole Middle East region," said Elena Melkumyan.
Normalization of Arab countries' relations with Israel
"The Abraham Accords did not cause an instant domino effect. The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which is actively promoted by the US, is worth mentioning separately. Riyadh's set of demands to Washington recently included security guarantees similar to NATO, which would have obliged the U.S. to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of an attack on its territory, assistance in building nuclear energy potential, supplies of new weapons systems, including F-35 aircraft and a mobile ground-based anti-missile system (THAAD).
"The Abraham Accords" at the White House in Washington, D.C., Sept. 15, 2020
In addition, the Saudis continue to insist that the Israelis take meaningful steps toward the Palestinians and begin a real peace process. Under the current circumstances, after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, it is clear that Riyadh's publicly stated approach of an independent Palestinian state as a precondition for an agreement with Israel will not be realized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on February 7: his country will not accept normalization of relations with any country on the condition of a Palestinian state.
- For Israel, normalization with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf is an important foreign policy priority - first of all, it concerns Saudi Arabia. Normalization of relations with them is a significant step for the country towards integration into the region, as well as a way to put the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the back burner and demonstrate that "peace for peace" is possible, not "peace for territory," Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the IMEMO RAS, explained to Izvestia.
Gaza Strip, January 26, 2025.
In addition, this opens up opportunities for various regional and even transcontinental projects (along the lines of the already existing cooperation between Israel, the UAE, India and the United States within the framework of I2U2), although political considerations probably come first in this case, the expert said.
At the same time, Israel will not be able to make a deal with the Saudis, completely ignoring Palestinian interests. Saudi Arabia has ample opportunity to be consistent in its position.
Following the Abraham Accords, two countries decided to normalize with Israel: the Republic of Sudan and the Kingdom of Morocco.
Gaza Strip, February 5, 2025.
The latter, with the help of a deal with Israel, achieved U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. And the United States promised Sudan that the country would be removed from the list of states sponsors of terrorism, as it had previously been considered one of the bases of the terrorist organization "Al-Qaeda" (banned in Russia).
However, the population of the countries did not approve of the trend towards normalization with Israel, expressing support for the Palestinians. The IDF's disproportionate use of force in the Gaza Strip has only energized the Arab street. Local elites are thus forced to balance the U.S.-imposed course of engagement with Israel with preserving the stability of their own society, which is largely pro-Palestinian.
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