Pass for peace: the Thailand-Cambodia agreement keeps the risk of a new escalation

Despite the cease-fire, the risk of a new escalation on the border between Thailand and Cambodia remains. New provocations are also possible, as the parties have no specific obligations in case of violation of the agreements, experts interviewed by Izvestia note. The main issue remains the delimitation of the border. On December 27, Bangkok and Phnom Penh reached a 72-hour truce after several days of intense negotiations. Monitoring of compliance with the regime will be carried out under the auspices of ASEAN. China is once again joining in the further settlement. In the USA, so far, they have only welcomed the decision of the parties. Whether Cambodia and Thailand will be able to finally resolve the conflict is in the Izvestia article.

Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to a ceasefire

There has been another temporary lull in the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. After several days of intense discussions, the negotiation marathon finally ended with a consensus on December 27. The latest escalation — fierce fighting lasted for three weeks — turned into perhaps the most serious clashes in recent years. The sides exchanged rocket and artillery fire, and combat aircraft were involved. In total, at least 101 people were killed: the Thai side reports 41 civilian casualties, the Cambodian side reports 31, not counting the military. In addition, more than half a million residents on both sides were forced to leave their homes.

The main outcome of the negotiations was, of course, the long-awaited cease-fire - so far only for 72 hours. Thus, the situation will probably require adjustments as early as next Tuesday. The agreement was signed with the participation of the defense ministers of Thailand and Cambodia, whose participation was questionable until recently. Everything depended on the effectiveness of the ongoing negotiations at the level of the secretariat of the General Border Committee of the two countries. Agreements for a longer period after approval should be signed at the highest level, that is, by the Prime Ministers of Thailand, Anuthin Chanvirakun and Cambodia, Hun Manet.

Under the new agreement, Thai and Cambodian troops will remain in their current positions without the right to further advance.

The parties also agreed not to increase their military presence in the border regions and not to transfer additional equipment and weapons. Thus, residents of the border areas, who have suffered the most, will be able to return to their homes as soon as possible. In addition, Thailand has pledged to return 18 Cambodian soldiers it holds to their homeland, again subject to a 72—hour ceasefire. The document notes that this step follows the "spirit of the Kuala Lumpur Declaration" mediated by US President Donald Trump.

In order for all this to really work, the parties agreed to establish direct interaction between the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of both sides. Special groups from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which includes both countries, will monitor compliance with the ceasefire.

— The agreement creates an architecture for a sustainable settlement: an immediate ceasefire with a specific time, the introduction of an independent verification mechanism under the auspices of ASEAN, linking military de-escalation with humanitarian issues (return of the population and prisoners of war, mine clearance), separation of short-term security from long-term border delimitation. Permanent coordination centers and direct communication lines at the highest level reduce the risks of accidental escalation," says Elena Polltsina, senior researcher at the Center for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies at the ICSA RAS.

At the same time, it is worth noting that the attacks continued right up to the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement - right during the negotiations.

According to the Khmer Times, citing the Cambodian Ministry of National Defense, early on December 26, Thai F-16 fighter jets dropped about 40 bombs near the village of Chukchi, and after that infantry and armored vehicles were sent there.

The causes of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia

So far, there is no certainty that the parties can actually achieve any concrete agreements, especially after so many attempts.

A new round of the smoldering conflict that has been going on for more than a century broke out at the beginning of the year — around the disputed territories of the temple complexes. In February, a video appeared on social media showing Cambodian soldiers singing patriotic songs near the Ta Moan Thom temple. In response, Thailand pulled military forces to the border, and in May there was a shootout, after which mutual accusations of provocations were expected to follow. The reason for the escalation of the armed conflict was the incident on July 23, 2025, when a Thai patrol hit a mine. Bangkok claimed that the Cambodian side had installed them recently, in violation of the agreements.

A few weeks later, the parties, with some help, managed to agree on a cease-fire. On August 7, in Kuala Lumpur, they consolidated this decision with the participation of representatives of the United States, China and Malaysia. In the same place, on October 26, Thailand and Cambodia signed a final peace agreement with Trump. The head of the White House, of course, declared this his personal victory - as the main peacemaker of the year, in his opinion.

However, these efforts were not enough. Even now, when the parties have reached a truce again, China is once again entering into a settlement. The Foreign Ministers of Thailand and Cambodia, Prak Sokhon and Sihasak Phuangketkeo, will discuss the situation on the border with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Yunnan Province on December 28 and 29. The United States has so far only "positively noted" the decision of Cambodia and Thailand to cease fire. Russia also welcomes the parties' dialogue on conflict resolution, especially in the context of the deteriorating security situation in the Asia-Pacific region, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said earlier.

All disagreements must be resolved through political and diplomatic methods in the spirit of unity and solidarity inherent in ASEAN. We call on the parties to exercise restraint, primarily to avoid civilian casualties," the Russian embassy in Phnom Penh told Izvestia earlier.

It is noteworthy that the new agreement does not contain specific and enforceable obligations of the parties in case of violation of the agreements, which leaves the mechanisms of responsibility very vague, Elena Polltsina notes to Izvestia. Moreover, the agreements do not eliminate the main cause of the conflict — the territorial issue, namely the unresolved demarcation of border sections.

"The success of the agreement depends not on signing, but on good faith in its implementation, especially in terms of refraining from provocations and advancing delimitation," says the expert. "Within each country, influential groups (military, nationalist) can use border tensions as a tool of political mobilization to obtain budget funds or control illegal economic flows. Against this background, the risk of a new exacerbation is significant. The sustainability of peace will depend on the ability of the Governments of Thailand and Cambodia to withstand these internal pressures and on the effectiveness of ASEAN as a guarantor.

A whole bunch of factors are added to the territorial claims, which fuel the conflict and create reasons for further aggravation. Thailand is going through something like a political crisis due to a series of scandals.

As reported, back in the summer, Hun Manet's father, Chairman of the Senate Hun Sen, published a recording of a telephone conversation with former Thai Prime Minister Phetkhongthan Chinnawat, the daughter of his close friend ex—Premier Thaksin Chinnawat, who was granted asylum in Cambodia in 2006. In it, she allegedly disparaged the Thai military, and called Hun Sen an "uncle" and promised to "take care of him." Phetkhong Khan Chinnawat, of course, was immediately accused of undermining national interests and removed from office.

"Either this will go into a kind of cold war mode, or another allied agreement will occur, that is, for example, as part of another truce, it will again be forbidden to bring reinforcements to existing troops," says Grigory Kucherenko, a junior researcher at the sector of new challenges in South and Southeast Asia at the IMEMO RAS. - And if one of the sides wants to disrupt the truce, it can simply accuse the other side of bringing in additional troops.

In any case, experts are confident that until the territorial issue is resolved, the risk of another escalation remains.