"The EU has long ceased to be a community of economic and social cooperation"
Ukraine will not meet the criteria for joining the EU for at least another 20 years, Stefan Kotre, a member of the Bundestag Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. Nevertheless, it is possible that the European Union will still approve the adoption of Kiev, and then it will accelerate the process of disintegration of the community, the politician believes. Kiev's guaranteed membership in the EU is one of the points of the peace plan previously circulated by Ukraine. The MP considers it likely that the conflict will end next year. However, the agreements reached between Russia and the United States will be crucial, he believes. About whether normalization of relations between the Russian Federation and the European Union is possible after the end of the Ukrainian crisis and what benefits this could bring to both sides, in an exclusive interview with Stefan Cotre to Izvestia.
"We are dealing with EU officials acting irrationally"
— The United States is actively discussing a settlement of the conflict with Ukraine, Russia and European allies. Given the current dynamics of the negotiations, could it be that the crisis will end in 2026?
— It all comes down to yes rather than no. However, given the background of this conflict, constructive cooperation between the United States and Russia will be crucial, not the Europeans.
— The Ukrainian side has distributed 20 points of the peace plan for the settlement of the conflict. The project is submitted as a document agreed with the United States and European partners. Among the conditions, in particular, Kiev's entry into the European Union with a fixed date. Does this mean that Ukraine will really be able to join the EU at least in the next 10 years?
— Ukraine will most likely not meet the criteria for EU membership for at least the next 20 years. However, the EU has long ceased to be a community of economic and social cooperation and has become an instrument of unilateral political orientation of European states.
If the EU continues its course towards confrontation with Russia and, consequently, the transformation of Ukraine into an instrument (of fighting the Russian Federation. — Izvestia), it is quite possible that Ukraine, despite the unfulfilled requirements, will be admitted to the EU to the detriment of all member states. But this, in turn, will only accelerate the process of disintegration of the European Union.
— Is there a chance that after the end of the Ukrainian conflict, the European Union and NATO will stop assessing Russia as a long-term threat?
— I believe that the United States will follow the "realpolitik" more and more clearly. The first steps have been taken. Russia is no longer automatically perceived as an enemy and is increasingly being treated as a strong economic partner. The EU will need more time to come to this. But it is impossible that normalization will not eventually occur.
— Indeed, recently many EU leaders have begun to talk more often about a direct war with Russia. Do the elites really believe that a confrontation with Russia is inevitable?
— We are dealing with EU officials acting irrationally. There is no rational basis for military hysteria. There is no justification for the fact that Russia is planning an attack on NATO countries. However, those who are stuck in their own ideology act on the basis of false assumptions and draw wrong conclusions.
— Russia has proposed to adopt an international document guaranteeing that the Russian Federation will not attack Western countries. How would you rate such an initiative?
— Russia's proposal to conclude a non-aggression pact could become one of the elements of a joint security architecture with the Russian Federation. However, the decisive factor will be how such an agreement is implemented. What will be the criteria and verification mechanisms? In general, such proposals serve as necessary steps that the EU must also take to ensure Europe's security.
"Industrial production has declined significantly in recent years"
— European countries failed to reach an agreement at the EU summit on December 18-19 on granting Ukraine a "reparation" loan secured by Russian frozen assets. Can we expect that the European elites will continue to try to push through this initiative?
— Probably, at the moment, attempts to expropriate Russian assets that violate international law have stopped. Then the EU representatives did not dare to demonstrate to the international community that they could violate the laws of the European Union. However, this does not mean that the issue has been removed from the agenda. At least during the ongoing peace talks, the EU will want to return to this issue.
— But is Berlin aware that German businesses operating in Russia, for example, may suffer because of such actions?
— It should be absolutely clear to those responsible that such far-reaching decisions will not be left without negative reaction. However, this does not worry the EU representatives. They talk like moralists, not from the point of view of "real politics." In this sense, they don't care about their own economy.
The situation of the German economy has completely faded into the background in recent years. The so-called climate measures, the energy transition away from nuclear power, increased bureaucracy, and, not least, the devastating sanctions against Russia are severely weakening the German economy. But, unfortunately, this does not prevent officials from continuing to act in this direction.
— The European Union plans to completely abandon Russian gas supplies by November 2027. How has the cessation of direct gas purchases from Russia already affected the German economy?
— Alternative for Germany has been clearly opposed to sanctions against Russia from the very beginning. He will continue to perform. Because the abandonment of Russian energy sources is costly for households and energy-intensive enterprises. The departure of companies is influenced by the rising cost of electricity (due to the energy transition) and higher energy prices (due to sanctions). Industrial production has declined significantly in recent years. We are witnessing a decline in production in the chemical or automotive industries, and companies are moving abroad. As a result, there is a loss of wealth and jobs.
— Is there a growing understanding in Germany that EU sanctions against Russia have proved ineffective?
— It has dawned on people that sanctions are harming them first of all, and not as the Russian economy. The management will understand this too, but they will act contrary to it. This is not a question of rationality, but of ideology, which, unfortunately, prevailed.
— Over the past month, many publications have appeared in the German media saying that German cities are saving on Christmas lighting due to rising electricity prices. Is this really the case and is there a connection with Germany's rejection of cheap Russian energy resources?
— In general, this is a combination of high electricity prices due to the energy transition and the destruction of nuclear energy, as well as rising gas and oil prices due to sanctions.
I am convinced that Germany will return to using peaceful nuclear energy in the future (in 2023, Germany completely abandoned nuclear energy. — Izvestia). But since the resources and know-how will have been largely destroyed by then, we will have to turn to other countries for help. And it could well be Russia.
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