Mountains and blood: a new hotspot is brewing in Central Asia
In late December, militants from Afghanistan tried to break through the border with Tajikistan, as a result of the clash, five people were killed. This is the third border incident in a month, and the situation in the region is becoming increasingly tense. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Killed at the crossing
On the night of December 24, the militants tried to break through the border of Afghanistan with Tajikistan. According to the official Dushanbe, the incident occurred in a mountainous area in the Khatlon region. "Three members of the terrorist organization crossed the state border, refused to comply with the demands of the border guards and offered armed resistance," the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan (SCNS) said in a statement.
As a result of the collision, all three violators were killed. During the search, they found three M-16 rifles, one Kalashnikov assault rifle, three pistols with silencers and ten hand grenades. In addition, the militants had night-vision binoculars, explosives, various ammunition and ammunition.
Two Tajik border guards, 28—year-old Ismatullo Kurbonov and 33-year-old Zirebon Navruzbekov, were also killed during the battle. The State Committee for National Security said in a statement that the Taliban, the ruling group in Afghanistan, should apologize to Tajikistan and take measures to prevent future attacks.
The official Dushanbe at the same time indicates that the current incident was the third in the last month. "The Taliban government has shown inability, serious and repeated irresponsibility in fulfilling international obligations and repeated promises to ensure security and stability at the state border, as well as in combating members of terrorist organizations," the State Committee for National Security emphasized.
There has still been no official reaction from the Afghan side. The local newspaper Hashte Subh published photos of the bodies of the militants, and also reported that the dead were members of the Jamaat Ansarullah group (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), which consists of ethnic Tajiks and citizens of other Central Asian countries. The organization is recognized as a terrorist organization in Tajikistan, and many militants are on the international wanted list.
The hunt for the Chinese
What is happening on the border of the two countries is causing increasing concern. The head of the Tajik Drug Control Agency, Zafar Samad, said that in January –July of this year, ten armed clashes took place on the line of contact. There were six skirmishes during the same period last year.
The official noted that the militants often use not only small arms, but also heavy weapons, equipped with modern equipment. During the clashes in the first half of this year, the border guards managed to neutralize four criminals, all of whom turned out to be Afghan citizens. Most of the incidents occurred in areas bordering the Afghan province of Badakhshan.
The situation also remained tense in the second half of this year. Only at the end of November, two tragic incidents occurred, in both cases the victims were Chinese workers. First, on the 26th, three Chinese citizens were killed as a result of the arrival of a drone from the territory of a neighboring state, and then on November 30, two Chinese died due to shelling from Afghanistan.
The Chinese authorities then demanded that Dushanbe and Kabul strengthen border security, and advised their citizens to evacuate from the danger zone. During a special meeting, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon "strongly condemned the provocative actions of the citizens of Afghanistan." The Taliban leadership also condemned the killings, calling the attackers provocateurs.
In Dushanbe, against this background, there was talk of a deteriorating security situation. To solve the problems, they initiated a series of meetings with representatives of the Taliban, although the group's authority is still not officially recognized. At first, contacts took place at the local government level, the most striking episode was the reception in Dushanbe of the Governor of the Afghan province of Balkh, Yusuf Wafo.
In November, contacts reached a new level when a representative Tajik delegation visited Kabul. It included the first deputy head of the border troops of the National Security Committee of Tajikistan, a special envoy from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, a senior national security expert and other officials. No specific agreements were reported at the time, but the general tone on both sides was supposedly quite constructive.
In early December, the foreign Ministers of the two countries held telephone talks. "Tajikistan and Afghanistan have recently created an atmosphere of trust for political, economic and security cooperation, but some forces are trying to undermine this process," an Afghan media report emphasized after the conversation.
At the same time, Tajikistan continues to strengthen its own position on earth. On December 25, President Emomali Rahmon remotely opened four new border posts on the border with Afghanistan. A 70 km long highway has been laid for their operation. It is noted that in just the last two or three years, 80 new border posts have been equipped in the republic at once.
Dushanbe also enjoys the support of its CSTO allies. At last year's summit of the organization in Astana, the participants approved a program to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border, which is designed for five years. In July, the association's secretariat approved a specific list of weapons and equipment for Tajik border guards, with deliveries expected to begin next year.
What the experts say
Andrei Serenko, a political scientist and expert on Central Asian countries, emphasizes that the Taliban's position in Afghanistan is weakening, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the movement to control extremist groups.
— There are more and more contradictions within the Taliban, while jihadist associations are strengthening. The militants are now on guard after their success in Syria, many would like to go even further, and in this sense they are looking towards Tajikistan. I think the current clashes are an attempt to test the Tajik security forces, the Tajik authorities, and to see the reaction of third countries. Pressure is likely to increase next year, and I predict attempts to conduct operations not only on the border with Tajikistan, but also inside the country," he notes.
Political analyst Rustam Burnashev says that the Taliban movement does not control the entire territory of Afghanistan.
— This is indicated in the statement of the National Security Committee of Tajikistan. This is indeed a problem, but I would not talk about any trend yet. Yes, we see that incidents occur with a certain frequency, but not much is known about the motivation of violators. Drug traffickers, smugglers, and jihadist fighters may be among them. It is quite difficult to make forecasts in such conditions," he explains.
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