The key is in the bank: how the financial sector stimulates market development and generates revenue

The Russian stock market has significant potential for new placements, and the government and ministries have been instructed to provide additional opportunities for large companies and state-owned companies to enter the stock exchange. By 2030, the market capitalization is expected to grow to 66% of GDP, which is almost twice the current level. Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that this way the potential of the stock market could be used for the benefit of the country. However, given the high key interest rate, it is important to look for new ways, in particular, the possibility of expanding dividend payments for state-owned banks is currently being discussed. This idea is supported by both the State Duma Committee on the financial market and the Ministry of Finance. So, in the fall, active discussions began that the share of profits from which banks make payments, such as Sberbank, should be increased to 90%, or even up to 100%. For more information about the opportunities offered by the growth of the Russian market, see the Izvestia article.

Incentives for development

Back in 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered to almost double the capitalization of the Russian stock market, bringing it to 66% of GDP by 2030. He noted that the market needs to strengthen its role as a source of investment and instructed to accelerate the launch of a special IPO regime for high-tech Russian companies in priority industries.

To achieve this goal, the federal project "Financial Market Development" was developed, and at the end of 2025, the head of state instructed the government to form a program for primary and secondary placements (IPOs and SPOs) of state—owned companies, and the ministries to develop industry plans for listing large companies on the stock exchange. He noted that the Russian market has the potential for new placements, and the attraction of equity capital will contribute to the development of production and investment projects.

In turn, the Ministry of Finance believes that the market is in a state of heightened readiness for a sharp increase, Deputy head of the department Ivan Chebeskov compared it to a compressed spring that is waiting for "the right triggers, the right situation, when the conditions for this are laid down." The Ministry of Finance believes that the growth of the stock market will be facilitated by the introduction of regulation of trading in cryptocurrencies, which can ensure the influx of new funds, and a marketing campaign that will ensure higher activity among investors and promote the stock market among citizens.

Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the financial market, explained to Izvestia that the IPO of state-owned companies really stimulates the development of the stock market.

— This will attract additional investments, increase market liquidity and, importantly, improve the quality of corporate governance. Corporatization of state—owned companies will help increase their capitalization, motivate management and improve financial results, as well as replenish the budget," the deputy said.

Thus, working simultaneously to create strong, stable issuers on the market, expand available assets, and increase the level of trust of citizens, the state, through stimulating the supply and demand of securities, will provide businesses with access to capital, citizens with long–term savings and income, and the budget will profit from dividends from state-owned companies. In addition, economic growth will be ensured, which will also have a positive impact on both the personal well-being of Russians and budget revenues.

Difficulties and opportunities

The issue of business access to capital is especially important in conditions of a high key interest rate. Most often, companies use credit tools to obtain funds for development, but they often justify themselves at low interest rates. The high Central Bank rate also causes a high cost of loans, which creates an additional burden for businesses and slows down the economy (company costs are rising, production is slowing down, and their shares are becoming more expensive). An increase in the value of securities naturally cools demand for them, which makes it more difficult to achieve the goal of doubling the capitalization of the stock market on time.

At the same time, the high rate fulfills the most important task: it restrains inflation and price growth, strengthens the national currency.

Going public will allow companies to attract financing without increasing debt. In order to help companies enter the stock exchange, a program has been launched to subsidize IPO costs for technology companies and SMEs.

This is confirmed by the Central Bank itself. In September, the chairman of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, named low inflation expectations among the conditions for fulfilling the president's instructions, which would ensure low long-term rates (for example, for ten-year OFZs). In this case, the share price will be lower than at more moderate rates, provided the same profits and dividends.

Anatoly Aksakov told Izvestia that as part of the market development, it is planned to reorient part of state subsidies from preferential loans to enterprises to direct support for companies entering the stock exchange. The authorities are also considering introducing tax incentives for companies conducting initial and secondary stock offerings on the stock exchange.

"We can also consider benefits for investors who purchase shares during the IPO," he said. — We have already started work in this area – the State Duma is considering a bill submitted by me that allows income from the sale of shares of high-tech companies acquired during the IPO to be exempt from personal income tax based on the results of the year of ownership. Currently, this benefit is valid for those who bought these shares during the secondary circulation, but does not apply to IPO participants.

Aksakov added that although subsidies are provided for the placement of shares and bonds for small and medium-sized enterprises, this support needs to be expanded.

At the same time, Viktor Zhidkov, Chairman of the Board of the Moscow Exchange, noted that he sees significant potential for growth. He recalled that today Russian businesses are trading at a discount, the discount reaches 70% compared to shares of companies in other countries. He explained that the natural growth of the market and the reduction of the discount can ensure an increase in market capitalization.

— When the situation stabilizes, the Russian market will be revalued upwards. Capital always strives for the most efficient use. And we have very promising assets to buy now," he told RBC Investments.

However, today regular payment of dividends can correct the situation and attract private investors. In this regard, in order to increase the attractiveness of the stock market for minority shareholders and attract broader segments of the population to invest, the authorities are calling on companies and, especially, the banking sector, to pay dividends. So, in June, the Ministry of Finance warned that otherwise the market would "vote with money." Deputy Head of the department Ivan Chebeskov noted that, on the one hand, it is important that companies can be flexible in their dividend policy, but on the other hand, dissatisfied investors will sell securities in case of suspension of payments.

In addition, dividends are one of the components of state budget revenue. In total, there are more than 500 organizations with state participation, and, as a rule, these are backbone enterprises that affect the country's economy. However, the overwhelming amount of dividends (more than 90%) to the federal budget is always provided by 15-20 companies. Among the largest assets of the state are 60.9% of VTB Bank, 50% + one share of Sberbank, 50.2% of Gazprom.

By the end of 2024, the budget received 755.8 billion rubles from dividends, and by the end of 2025, payments will amount to 793.3 billion rubles, according to the budget amendments adopted in September. Accurate data will be available in February 2026, when companies will publish reports for the previous period.

Dividend Assistance

The most important sectors of the Russian economy used to be oil and banking, the results of their activities brought the state the greatest income. However, in 2025, due to a number of factors, oil is falling, which led to a decline in quotations throughout the sector. This was also affected by geopolitical risks, the impact of sanctions, the strengthening of the ruble, as well as an increase in the share of difficult-to-produce oil and gas, which leads to high costs for field development. However, the banking sector is growing, and the Ministry of Finance has already called it a key one for the country's economy.

Anatoly Aksakov also confirmed this to Izvestia. According to him, recent data show that companies in the oil and gas and banking sectors mainly generate high dividend income in Russia.

"Due to the greater exposure of commodity companies to market fluctuations and the need to direct funds to infrastructure development, dividends from the banking sector may in some periods look like a more attractive and stable source of income," he explained.

In 2025, the list of Russian "blue chips" in this industry was expanded when Dom.RF went public. This became the largest share placement among Russian companies since 2021. Despite the fact that it only went public in November this year, financial analysts are already putting it on a par with Yandex and Sberbank: this is facilitated by the scale of the business, dividends, government guarantees, and understandable activities. Currently, 100% of the company's shares are owned by the state, but with the launch of the stock exchange, it is planned to sell almost half, leaving a controlling stake of 50% + 1 share. At the first stage of sales, more than 25 billion rubles were attracted, and after that the state's share amounted to 89.9%.

The largest payer of dividends to the state today is another blue chip, Sberbank. So, in 2026, according to Vedomosti calculations, budget revenues from its dividends are estimated at 397.5 billion rubles. In 2027, they will reach 401.3 billion rubles, and in 2028 - 430.5 billion rubles. Over three years, the amount of payments will amount to about 1.2 trillion rubles.

Currently, Sber pays dividends to shareholders with 50% of net profit under IFRS – this minimum threshold is set by law for state-owned companies. However, there is a discussion in government circles about the possibility for the issuer to raise this threshold, which will benefit both the business and its shareholders: from the state to the minority shareholder.

In October, Aksakov, as part of the Finopolis forum, suggested that Sberbank allocate 90% of its profits to dividends instead of the current 50%. This would almost double budget revenues. In addition, such a decision would lead to increased demand for shares of this bank, which, in turn, would have a positive impact on both large investors and minority shareholders. Among other things, this would cause an increase in capitalization of the entire Russian stock market.

— Expanding the payment of dividends by large issuers, including in the banking sector, may be appropriate in terms of attracting investors and increasing confidence in the market. However, such decisions should be made taking into account the financial capabilities of companies and banks. In addition to supporting shareholders, organizations also have strategic development goals, so it makes sense to direct part of the profits to these goals, including important long-term projects. This creates the basis for profitability and new dividends in the future," the deputy stressed.

This initiative is supported by economist Nikita Krichevsky. In his opinion, this share can be increased even to 100%, however, he clarified that this is only about the part of the dividend payments that are transferred to the state.

— We are talking about dividends that are owed to the state, that is, dividends from the state share. But I would go even further, I would suggest charging not 90%, but 100%. This is a state-owned bank, as well as VTB, Rosselkhoznadzor, Promstroybank and others. If the state believes that Sberbank should pay 100% of its dividends in the state debt, then that's the way it is, because the founding state. Times will change, there will be more funds in the budget, then we can return to the reduction," he said.

In general, this is consistent with the position of the Ministry of Finance on the dividend policy. So, in September, the head of the department, Anton Siluanov, noted that not all Russian banks want to pay dividends. — We will work in this regard. In a number of countries, the income tax on banks is higher than the income tax on ordinary sectors of the economy," he stressed.

The current market capitalization of Sberbank in November 2025 was 6.9 trillion rubles, and net profit, according to him, for only 10 months of the year amounted to 1.4 trillion rubles, which is 6.9% higher than the results of the same period in 2024. In total, as stated by German Gref, president of the Board of Sberbank, during a meeting with Putin in November, the bank has paid 787 billion rubles in dividends this year. According to him, this is a record in the Russian market, as "so far no company has ever paid so much in its entire history." Gref noted that in 2025, the bank expects profits to be about 6 percentage points higher than in 2024, so next year the dividends will be higher.