Autostat estimates the decline in the Russian car market in 2025

By the end of 2025, 1.31-1.32 million new passenger cars will be sold in Russia. The decrease compared to 2024, when 1.57 million new cars were sold, will be 16%. This forecast was published on December 23 by Sergey Tselikov, director of the Autostat analytical agency, in his Telegram channel.

According to his calculations, the increase in weighted average prices for new passenger cars for the year will be only 4-5%, which will be the lowest value in the last 5 years.

At the same time, record values in 2025 will be recorded in the import of used cars. The total annual volume of used car imports will approach 500,000 units. Such a number has not been recorded in Russia since the mid-90s, said Tselikov.

In early 2026, according to the expert's forecast, prices for new cars will rise due to increased recycling fees and VAT, and purchasing power will decrease.

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Earlier, on December 19, Tselikov said that average prices for new cars in Russia in the first half of 2026 could rise by about 10%. Growth will occur not simultaneously, but as the price lists of specific models are adjusted. Other experts have suggested that imported cars of Chinese brands will rise in value by up to 15-20%, and those supplied through alternative import channels may jump in price by up to 50%.

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