Arab Winter: the interests of the UAE and Saudi Arabia intersect in Yemen
The Emirates are trying to expand their influence in Yemen as opposed to Saudi Arabia. With the support of Abu Dhabi, the Southern Transitional Council of Yemen (UPC) announced an offensive on the eastern province of Hadramaut. This territory is controlled by tribal groups close to Riyadh. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The interests of the three parties
In the oil-rich province of Hadramaut, located in the east of Yemen, a new confrontation broke out in early December. The forces of the Southern Transitional Council (UPC), which partially control the south of the country and advocate the separation of this territory, announced Operation Promising Future.
The military conflict in Yemen between the government and the Houthis, who seized power in the north of the country, has been going on for more than 10 years. However, the east of the state remained the most peaceful part of the country until recently.
In the current conflict, the interests of three parties intersect: the official government of Yemen, which supports Riyadh, the Houthis, who are assisted by Iran, and the UPS, which is actually a proxy of the United Arab Emirates, said Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS.
— Firstly, the province of Hadramaut is large, it occupies about a third of the entire territory of the country. Secondly, there are very large oil reserves there, about 80-90%. And thirdly, this is the border with Oman, and the Houthis have received and continue to receive military aid from Iran through Oman," the political scientist explained in an interview with Izvestia.
Control of Hadhramaut means not only an economic advantage, but also military and strategic dominance in the south and east of the country.
In 2016, the Riyadh-led coalition ousted the terrorists from Hadramaut. However, the struggle for control and influence continued there for many years, until in August 2024, the Hadramaut Tribal Alliance, consisting of a coalition of local tribes and also loyal to Saudi Arabia, took control of these regions.
The tribal forces have until recently maintained relative stability in the region, acting as a buffer between the south and the center. However, the offensive of the UPS with the support of the Emirates has become a direct challenge to the Saudi system, the purpose of this escalation is the redistribution of spheres of influence.
The struggle for oil resources
The escalation began after the Hadramaut Tribal Alliance established control over the region's oil fields, demanding increased control and an increased share of the sale of energy resources.
Representatives of the UPU issued a harsh statement that the region "has become a platform for smuggling and has become a breeding ground for extremist groups," including the Islamic State* and Al-Qaeda* (terrorist organizations banned in the Russian Federation).
"All the options proposed in recent years to restore stability in the Hadramaut Valley have been exhausted," their message says.
At that time, the Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance raised its alert level and threatened to extend its control to all areas of the province, adding that "any foreign or non-local military presence in Hadhramaut" would be considered an occupation.
In addition, representatives of the Alliance appealed to Saudi Arabia, which traditionally considers Hadhramaut as a zone of its political influence, with a request to intervene.
After a clash with army units, the UPU forces seized the presidential palace in the city of Seyoun. It happened on December 3rd.
Emirates vs Saudi Arabia
This is a rather difficult situation, Danila Krylov explained to Izvestia.
"Both the UPS and the government are opposed to the Houthis, and for the Emirates this is a very protracted conflict, which they have long wanted to get out of, but each time it does not work out, because it can result in serious reputational risks and losses," the expert noted.
For Abu Dhabi, this is actually a black hole, into which it pours large amounts of money and spends a lot of resources, the orientalist believes.
"There have been situations more than once when the Yemeni government, that is, the Saudis, negotiated some kind of truce with the Houthis, without informing the UPS at all," the expert said.
The Emirates have accumulated a lot of complaints against Saudi Arabia, although they express them with sufficient restraint so as not to aggravate the situation. On the one hand, there is a redistribution of spheres of influence, on the other hand, in terms of influencing regional processes, Saudi Arabia is in a more advantageous position than the Emirates, the Arabist believes.
— I doubt that there will be any armed clashes between the proxies of the Saudis and the proxies of the Emirates. This is likely to be limited to sluggish fighting," the political scientist explained.
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, adheres to a similar position. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are usually considered great friends and allies, including within the framework of the Arab coalition in Yemen, but there are contradictions between them.
—The events in Hadramaut are a new, rather alarming round of rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates for influence in Yemen," the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, the current escalation is not accidental.
— In many ways, it reflects the profound transformation of the Arab coalition, initially created in 2015 under the Saudi leadership to counter the Houthis. A split line has gradually emerged between the interests of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the expert believes.
He added that this marks a transition from the tough foreign policy pursued by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman in 2015-2019 to a new soft, balancing, multi-vector course after 2019.
Political trends and forecasts
On Friday, December 5, it became known that the authorities of Hadramaut and representatives of the Hadramaut Tribal Alliance signed a framework ceasefire agreement mediated by Saudi Arabia.
The document contains 13 points providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities, measures to reduce tension, as well as the observance of a regime of silence in order to achieve a final settlement.
The Hadhramaut defense forces should withdraw one kilometer from the facilities of the PetroMasila oil company. In addition, it is planned to resume the work of the company's employees and restore its operational activities. The combined forces, which will include representatives of tribal structures, will protect the oil facilities.
Despite the agreement to normalize relations between Tehran and Riyadh, the Houthis and the possible strengthening of Iranian influence remain a key threat to Saudi Arabia, Ostanin-Golovnya believes.
According to him, Abu Dhabi sees the UPS as a tool for deterring the Houthis and the penetration of other forces of influence, both Iran and Saudi Arabia. Another goal of the UAE is to ensure strategic control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
"It's not for nothing that they have bases on the other side of the sea — in Somalia, as well as the UAE, they are strengthening their presence in Sudan," the specialist emphasized.
He believes that the current escalation threatens not only the general fragmentation of Yemen into several zones of influence, but also undermines recent efforts for a peaceful political settlement.
— Saudi Arabia, despite its own differences with the Emirates, has until recently sought a diplomatic solution to the conflict. But a direct military offensive by the Southern Transitional Council on the territory controlled by pro—Saudi forces could disrupt all initiatives and return Yemen to the active phase of the civil war, the expert believes.
According to the orientalist's forecast, in the short term, increased chaos and humanitarian crisis are possible, as well as increased tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
— It is also possible to redistribute military intelligence support, which Iran can use to strengthen its presence in Yemen and strengthen military support for the Houthis. In the long term, this will strengthen the role of other external actors, including the United States, Great Britain, and perhaps even China through interest in trade routes in the region," the analyst concluded.
In turn, Danila Krylov believes that if the Emirates take control of Hadramaut, they, on the one hand, can greatly weaken the Houthis by blocking the supply routes of Iranian weapons and equipment.
"On the other hand, they can use this to play against Saudi Arabia, strengthening their negotiating positions and generally persuading the Saudis to end this conflict, which neither side particularly benefits," the expert believes.
The orientalist believes that Abu Dhabi, which adheres to a fairly balanced policy, will not once again escalate the situation.
— Riyadh is unlikely to do this either, so the main question now is whether UPS will be able to take control of Hadramaut and how much Saudi Arabia will supply the Hadramaut Tribal Alliance. It is difficult to answer these questions accurately due to the lack of sufficient information and the unclear real balance of power," the expert concluded.
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