"Investors like growth stories"

Against the background of high volatility in the stock market, investors prefer more conservative instruments. Stanislav Kleshchev, investment strategist at VTB My Investments, told Izvestia how advantageous this strategy is and what other assets are promising in the coming year.

"For debt instruments, the dynamics of the key interest rate has become a catalyst for growth"

— How will investors remember 2025?

— Last year, the Bank of Russia began a cycle of monetary policy easing. This has become one of the key factors shaping market sentiment. Such events occur every few years and create opportunities to make good money on conservative instruments. Many private investors have just opted for ruble-denominated debt instruments, catching a wave of key rate cuts. This wave will continue next year, as it will provide an opportunity to make high profits with low risk. Another feature of 2025 is the volatility caused by geopolitical events. Therefore, investors were looking for a "safe haven", switching from stocks to debt instruments.

— How did the dynamics of the key interest rate affect the stock market in 2025?

— It is necessary to separate the bond market and the stock market. If the dynamics of the key interest rate became a growth catalyst and a significant revaluation factor for debt instruments, then it had an extremely limited impact on the stock market. The Moscow Exchange index has been in the red since the beginning of the year, although the key rate has already decreased by 4.5 percentage points. The reason for this discrepancy was the high uncertainty on the geopolitical track, as well as a number of tariff decisions and the external conjuncture in the commodity markets.

— What are your forecasts for 2026 based on key macro indicators?

— We expect the growth rate of the Russian economy to remain around 1-1.5%. This is a natural increase in the current conditions. We expect that the cycle of reducing the key rate will continue, and by the end of 2026 it may be around 13% per annum. It is highly likely that there will be opportunities for a more aggressive reduction in the key rate in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the Bank of Russia is likely to adhere to stricter monetary conditions in order to consolidate its success in curbing inflation.

According to our forecasts, the ruble will weaken moderately. We expect 98-100 rubles per dollar by the end of 2026. Lower oil prices will put pressure on the ruble exchange rate. Russian oil prices are under double pressure — due to the expansion of discounts and due to the global decline in commodity prices amid growing supply from OPEC+.

In addition, the Bank of Russia will significantly reduce currency sales next year. A decrease in the supply of currency will also push the ruble exchange rate towards weaker values.

We forecast inflation at 5.5% by the end of 2025, slightly above the target range of the regulator. Accordingly, our forecast for the key rate is also higher than the forecast of the Central Bank.

— What is the forecast for gold?

— The situation for gold remains extremely interesting. We are currently in the final stage of an upward momentum movement. It has been going on for two years now, and so far no one can say whether the maximum has been reached. Therefore, investment banks predict gold prices in a very wide range — from $ 3,000 to $5,000 per ounce. However, in our opinion, the current basic gold prices have already broken away from fundamental levels. The significant margin that gold miners are currently showing does not seem sustainable in the long term. Over the next three years, we expect gold prices to return to around $3,000 per ounce. As for the forecast for next year, we should expect a lot of volatility. In our opinion, prices will decrease — we can see $ 3,850 per ounce on average for the year. This is about 10% lower than it is now. I would like to emphasize that this is exactly the average estimate, which does not exclude volatility during the year.

"We need to put eggs in different baskets"

— What should investors pay attention to when forming a portfolio for 2026?

— The main factors that determine the market mood will not change next year: high volatility, uncertainty and, consequently, a fairly wide range of forecasts for the exchange rate and the dynamics of prices for fixed assets. Therefore, we need to diversify, we need to put eggs in different baskets. You should not place an unambiguous bet on ruble-denominated bonds as the most popular asset right now. Other tools need to be added to the portfolio.

We prefer affordable quasi—currency instruments, such as foreign currency-denominated corporate bonds, yuan-denominated OFZs, and shares of exporting companies. In the scenario of a weakening of the national currency, they will be able to maintain the purchasing power of savings.

— What can you say about the bonds? Can they be considered the leading asset of 2026?

— Ruble-denominated bonds should remain the basis of the investment portfolio. Now they account for about half of the portfolio of Russian private investors. In the coming year, starting in January, the Central Bank will reduce currency sales. Against this background, I repeat, it is advisable to increase the share of foreign currency bonds and quasi-currency instruments.

We identify corporate bonds denominated in dollars, which have higher yields than in yuan—denominated instruments. In addition, they are usually longer, which makes it possible to take advantage of tax benefits for long—term ownership of securities.

Finally, the placement of OFZs in yuan somehow creates an additional supply canopy for the yuan segment. Such an overhang is not expected in the dollar segment. Therefore, we recommend rebalancing in favor of the currency component.

If we talk about ruble—denominated corporate bonds, it makes sense to focus on the most reliable instruments — bonds of companies of the AA -AAA rating groups. We believe that the premiums they give — up to 3 percentage points to OFZ — are more than interesting in order not to take on large credit risks.

"The attractiveness of collective forms of investment is growing"

— What is your view on the stock market? What sectors do you identify for 2026?

— We see the main risk now in the shares of oil companies. The increased discounts and pressure on global quotes are forcing us to revise down our profit forecasts. The difficult situation remains in the ferrous metals sector. This is due to both weak global market conditions and a slowdown in the Russian construction industry, which may continue in 2026 amid the curtailment of preferential programs and still high interest rates for market mortgages.

Among the most attractive are the IT sector, the financial sector, as well as individual names in the consumer sector and in non-ferrous metallurgy. They are where the growth stories that investors traditionally like are concentrated — they demonstrate double-digit year-on-year growth and economies of scale, improving their financial metrics.

— What other investment instruments may be of interest in 2026?

— Recently, we have noticed an increased demand for real estate funds. People are increasingly abandoning the purchase of "concrete" in favor of financial instruments that allow them to gain exposure to the same asset class, but with a lower entry fee and without the difficulties associated with managing their own rental pool. Repairs, finding tenants, and so on — these troubles can be avoided by acting through financial instruments. More and more investors understand this — they invest in warehouse, office or retail real estate funds and receive higher rental returns than through the independent purchase of an apartment or commercial premises. We think this trend will continue.

If we look at it more broadly, the attractiveness of collective forms of investment is growing. It is difficult for many investors to independently form and manage an investment portfolio. This requires additional knowledge and the opportunity to constantly be in the market, keep your finger on the pulse. And the acquisition of a diversified fund managed by a professional team is a convenient solution for a private investor who does not have the opportunity to immerse himself in the inner kitchen of the Russian stock market, but who wants to extract profitability from the emerging trends in it. Therefore, we believe that the increase in the share of mutual funds in the structure of household savings will continue. We can clearly see this in our clients' portfolios.