Diplomatic turns in Asian style: how India and Pakistan are "dancing" around the Taliban

After the Taliban movement came to power, drastic changes have been outlined in the India–Afghanistan–Pakistan Asian triangle. The former "mentor" and "sponsor" are at war with their "client," and India, which has been treating the Taliban as terrorists and agents of the Pakistani military for nine years, is getting closer to them and investing in the Afghan economy. Izvestia understands what all this means and how far the "Asian revolution" can go in diplomacy.

The triangle is under tension

The day before, in the Pakistani city of Peshawar, an attack by two terrorists on the headquarters of the federal police was prevented. It is specified that one of the attackers blew himself up at the first gate of the headquarters, while the second was eliminated by the police. As a result of the incident, three policemen were fatally injured, and three more people were injured. On November 13 and 10, terrorist attacks also took place in Pakistani cities, which resulted in civilian and police casualties. The unstable situation also persists in Afghanistan.

The region of South and Central Asia has always been full of surprises and surprises. However, this became really evident after the rapid takeover of power in Afghanistan by the Taliban movement in September 2021. After almost a quarter of a century of bloody war, having defeated the powerful military machine of the United States and NATO, the Taliban felt strong and confident. Their actions on the world stage have become much more firm and persistent.

The fact is that Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban movement have always been considered inseparable. The Pakistani military and specialists were at the very origins of the Afghan student movement. The Taliban owes its creation to Islamabad, or to be more precise, to the Pakistani Interagency Intelligence Service. Pakistanis have always funded, supplied and patronized the Taliban, seeing them as their proxies who are able to come to power and protect the interests of Islamabad. The strategy was conceived with an eye to the key confrontation in the South Asian region — the Indian-Pakistani one. Islamabad has always dreamed of getting a friendly and controlled government in Kabul in order to be able to focus all its forces, attention and resources on fighting the "age—old enemy" - Delhi.

And everything seemed to be going according to plan, however, as you know, predicting political processes in the East is a thankless task. After the victory of the Taliban and the revival of the Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, relations between Kabul and Islamabad reached a historic low. The former allies have engaged in a series of armed clashes along the border and are effectively in a state of cold war. The Taliban no longer wants to remain under the influence of the Pakistani military. Pakistan, in turn, does not want to lose its weight in Afghan politics and seeks to force the Taliban to take its interests into account.

Two conflicts — one logic

In April and May 2025, the long-standing and irreconcilable conflict between the two huge countries gained new momentum. In response to the horrific terrorist attacks in the disputed Kashmir region, India launched Operation Sindoor. New Delhi has accused the Pakistani armed forces of supporting Islamist groups. The Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba has a long-standing presence in Pakistani cities. Moreover, the terrorist attack in Kashmir had a pronounced religious background: Islamists were killing Hindus.

It is worth noting that Pakistan denies any involvement in the continued presence of radicals and notes that it itself is a target for various terrorist groups, including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, which has a presence in Afghanistan. The armed conflict between India and Pakistan was short-lived, but tensions remain. Both countries are actively strengthening their armed forces. Therefore, a new escalation is quite expected.

If the Indo-Pakistani conflict is a well—known and expected thing, then armed clashes using regular armies, heavy artillery and terrorist attacks in megalopolises between Afghanistan and Pakistan have become a real surprise. In October 2025, a real short but very hot Afghan-Pakistani war began, as a result of which several hundred people were killed, thousands were injured, and more than five thousand became refugees.

Diplomatic castling

Against this difficult background, a representative delegation of the Afghan Taliban visited Delhi in October 2025. Given the historical relations and differences in ideological and religious views, the event is unprecedented. Later it became known that Delhi was opening its embassy in Kabul, which could be regarded as a de facto recognition of the Taliban regime. Later, the world community was informed that India and Afghanistan intend to deepen trade ties, and flights were launched.

Afghanistan expects a lot from the launch of relations with India, especially investments and money. Meanwhile, Indian expert Anand Singh, in an interview with Izvestia, also explains the ongoing rapprochement with a geopolitical calculation.

— What do two friendly countries do when there is a disagreement between them? They avoid him. This is exactly what India and Afghanistan are planning to do with the obstacle called Pakistan," he said.

According to the expert, the beginning of India's interaction with the Taliban reflects a pragmatic shift in prioritizing strategic interests over ideological doubts.

"This updated approach is vital for protecting India's borders from terrorism and countering the influence of strategic rivals. He emphasizes that interacting with a difficult partner does not mean approval and reflects a pragmatic choice of dialogue instead of separation. As the main rival, Pakistan, is losing influence in the region, New Delhi is moving closer to actively working with the new rulers of Afghanistan," the Izvestia interlocutor summarizes.

How far will everything go and Russia's interests

At the same time, one should not ignore ideological differences and historical background. The Taliban have much closer ideological positions with Pakistan than with India. The current course of the Afghan Taliban towards rapprochement with India is understandable, but they will not be able to abandon cooperation with Pakistan in any way due to geographical reasons and ideological proximity, Elena Suponina, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, an international orientalist, reminded Izvestia.

The expert recalled that all these conflicts have their roots in colonial politics and are on the conscience of the colonial metropolises.

— During its collapse, the British Empire very roughly divided the borders of emerging states. The line of demarcation between Pakistan and Afghanistan was also very rough, which divided some tribes and small ethnic groups. It also adds fuel to the fire of the most complex contradictions," Suponina said.

As for Russia's interests, they could potentially be affected. The fact is that Moscow has deep and good relations with all sides of the conflict triangle. Moreover, all these countries are involved in the integration processes of the BRICS and the SCO in one way or another. Russia just needs to take into account that the region remains very explosive. Elena Suponina believes that Russia has so far been very professional and successful in maneuvering between different states, but during the period of escalation of conflicts, maneuvering is not always possible. Russia may have to reduce its activity in some areas. Moscow's previous policy of maintaining good relations with everyone will remain, she concluded.