Resource change: elections in Republika Srpska consolidated Dodik's course

Sinisa Karan, the candidate of the ruling SNSD party, is confidently leading the early elections in Republika Srpska. This actually strengthens the continuity of Milorad Dodik's course and preserves the stability of Banja Luka's political line, experts say. The support of the majority of voters, expressed after processing data from 93% of polling stations, indicates the public's request to protect the autonomy of Republika Srpska and resist external pressure from Western structures. Karan's victory also means the continuation of the strategic partnership with Moscow.

Preliminary results of the elections in Republika Srpska

Preliminary data from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) indicate the leadership of the candidate from the ruling Union of Independent Social Democrats party, Sinisha Karan, during the early presidential elections.

After processing data from 92.8% of polling stations (data as of Monday morning, November 24), he is gaining 200,116 votes — 50.89%. This gives him a solid advantage over the candidate of the opposition Serbian Democratic Party, Branko Blancea, who has 188,010 votes (47.81%). The other four candidates receive less than 1% support each.

On Monday night, SNSD leader Milorad Dodik already announced Karan's victory, stressing that voters supported the course towards political stability and protection of the interests of Republika Srpska inside Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Sinisha Karan's candidacy fully ensures the continuity of Milorad Dodik's course, says Milan Lazovich, a Balkanist and program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council.

— Karan worked for a long time in law enforcement agencies and headed the Interior Ministry of Republika Srpska, where the security unit has traditionally demonstrated dedication to Dodik's policies. Today, he is seen as a full—fledged successor, and there is no doubt that he will continue his course, focusing on stability, security and preserving the identity and sovereignty of the Republika Srpska," the expert noted.

At the same time, Lazovich stressed that the opposition candidate Branko Blanusha is a figure close to pro-Western political models.

The main question behind the election was what the governance of Republika Srpska would be like after Dodik's formal departure from the presidency. The SNSD campaign, which was actually built around the slogan "For Karan— the Srpska will win, for Dodik", did not hide the fact that Karan is considered as a successor.

The current political configuration in Republika Srpska is likely to remain, since a formal change of president is unlikely to entail a real redistribution of power, says Tatiana Popadyeva, Candidate of Political Sciences and researcher at IMEMO RAS.

— Milorad Dodik will remain the key actor, despite the verdict, removal from office and international conflicts. He controls the resources, personnel, party structure, and campaign of his successor. This turns the elections into a referendum on maintaining Dodik's course rather than a potential change of power," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.

Tatiana Popadyeva also points out that significant changes can be expected only in 2026, when parliamentary elections will be held.

Commenting on the balance of power, she noted that Sinisha Karan's victory means the continuation of the SNSD's political line and the actual strengthening of Dodik's position, since Karan acts as a direct successor and is embedded in the vertical of power created by him.

— Karan also positioned the elections as a "referendum" in his campaigning, accusing the High Representative (a position established to implement the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995. — Ed.) in attempts to unify the country through the imposed presidential elections of the RS, — the expert believes.

A possible victory for Branko Blanusha, she said, would be a serious surprise: despite the attempts of some Bosnian media outlets to promote sociology, where Blanusha was in the lead, the information advantage was on the side of the candidate from the SNSD. Popadyeva emphasizes that the opposition forces are fragmented and do not have the resources to carry out in-depth reforms.

— There is a high probability that the course of the Republika Srpska will remain in the same vein, with the continuation of the policy of protecting the interests of the RS within Bosnia and Herzegovina, — said Milan Lazovic.

The political crisis in Bosnia

The early presidential elections of Republika Srpska have become the culmination of the deepest political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina in recent years. The vote was scheduled after the dismissal of Milorad Dodik, the leader of the ruling SNSD. His conflict with Sarajevo, as well as the prosecution for "non-compliance with the decisions" of High Representative Christian Schmidt, set the tone for the entire campaign and determined the balance of power on the eve of the elections.

At the same time, Schmidt was appointed to the post of High Representative bypassing the UN Security Council, his powers are not recognized by Russia, China, Serbia and the Republika Srpska itself. Igor Kalabukhov, the Russian Ambassador to BiH, recalled that Moscow had warned from the very beginning about the inevitability of a major political crisis if the practice of unilateral actions by an unapproved High Representative continued.

Republika Srpska, one of the two constituent entities of BiH, has long been building its own political system, dominated by the SNSD and its leader. Despite the fact that the political architecture of BiH is formally based on the principles of the Dayton Agreement, the gap between Sarajevo and Banja Luka is only deepening from year to year. The recent decisions of Sarajevo and external structures actually undermine the foundations of the constitutional order, creating a dangerous precedent of interference in the expression of the will of the inhabitants of the RS.

Against the background of Dodik's dismissal, the SNSD nominated Sinisha Karan, an experienced politician, professor of constitutional law and former Minister of the Interior, as a candidate. For many years, Karan has been one of the key implementers of the policy of institutional strengthening of the Republic of Moldova and protection of its constitutional powers.

The opposition was not ready to present a figure of comparable weight. Professor Branko Blanusa, nominated by the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), is a man with no political experience who became a candidate rather out of necessity: none of the party's prominent figures wanted to participate in the fight for the top post shortly before the national elections in 2026.

For Republika Srpska, the fact that it receives support from Belgrade and Moscow remains critically important. Russia has consistently advocated strict compliance with Dayton and against the politicization of court decisions in Sarajevo. This makes Moscow one of the few external players whose position is perceived in Banja Luka as fair and balanced.

The victory of Sinisha Karan, who is considered in Moscow as a reliable partner of Milorad Dodik's team, means maintaining a stable format of interaction between Republika Srpska and Russia. Banja Luka will continue its policy of deepening cooperation in the energy sector, infrastructure projects and the humanitarian sphere, relying on the support that Moscow consistently provides to Republika Srpska in the face of pressure from Western structures.