On the decline: the dollar exchange rate dropped below 80 rubles

On Friday, November 21, the dollar-ruble exchange rate on the over-the-counter market fell below 77 rubles. Experts explain that several reasons could have influenced the dynamics, including the US unemployment report in September and the US Federal Reserve's unclear plans to combat inflation. Read more about why the ruble is strengthening and about exchange rates on November 21 in the Izvestia article.

Currency drop on November 21st

On November 21, the dollar/ruble pair on the Forex market fell by 4.5%. Thus, according to the site Investing.com At 12:06 Moscow time, the dollar dropped to 76.55 rubles for the first time since May 2025. At the same time, after 20 minutes, the exchange rate of the US currency rebounded to 79.01 rubles.

The fall also affected the European currency. The euro/ruble pair on the Forex market dropped by 1.7% to 90.75 rubles per euro. The exchange rate of the yuan against the ruble has also decreased and is at around 11.052 rubles.

The official dollar exchange rate, set by the Bank of Russia on November 21, is 80.73 rubles; euro — 92.6047 rubles, yuan — 11.2795 rubles.

The depreciation of the dollar against other world currencies has also become significant. For example, the euro rose to $1.1541 against the dollar. The US currency itself fell against the Japanese yen to 157.22 per dollar.

The reason for the global weakness of the dollar is uncertainty about the future actions of the Federal Government. The day before, the United States presented a new plan for a peaceful settlement of 28 points; at the same time, the Pentagon announced that it would send almost $ 30 million to Ukraine for domestic needs.

Why is the ruble growing

As noted by the Reuters news agency, regardless of expectations from geopolitics, the ruble can be supported by "real cash flows: currency interventions by the Central Bank and sales of export earnings to tax payments due in a week."

Nevertheless, many attribute the strengthening of the ruble against foreign currencies to geopolitical news, in particular, reports about the peace plan of US President Donald Trump on the conflict in Ukraine and the fact that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky (powers expired on May 20, 2024) is ready to discuss it. It is also important to note that part of the American president's plan for Ukraine is the gradual lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation, which is positively perceived by investors.

Geopolitical warming could be the reason for the ruble's response. However, another factor could also play a role — the approaching tax period in Russia. Exporters sell their earnings in foreign currency to pay taxes in rubles.

Economist Lazar Badalov did not rule out that geopolitics could influence the exchange rate, but the flow of exports and imports is a more significant and significant factor.

— The fact that recently there have been toughenings related to various fees, taxes, duties, leads to the fact that the demand for imports is decreasing, while export earnings are still stable, — adds the expert.

Thus, according to the economist, the balance of supply and demand for the currency determines the current appreciation of the ruble.

Mikhail Khachaturyan, PhD in Economics and Associate Professor of the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University, agrees that the news of geopolitics could have an impact on the strengthening of the ruble relative to other currencies. However, he adds that this crane effect is negligible.

— To a greater extent, the strengthening of the ruble is due to the recovery in Russian oil purchases by China and India, especially India. Their decline was observed in late October and the first decade of November against the background of the introduction of US sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft. To date, the issues with the supplies themselves and payment formats have been resolved, the volume of purchases is growing, and this is reflected in the ruble exchange rate," the expert explains.

Another factor pushing the ruble up, in his opinion, is the growth in non-primary exports, which, according to the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance, amounted to $111.4 billion in November 2025, which is 6% more than a year earlier. The largest contribution to this growth was made by industrial and agricultural exports ($85.4 billion and $26 billion, respectively).

— It is the receipts of these revenues that support the strengthening of the ruble. The geopolitical agenda has its influence, but it is extremely insignificant. And this is certainly a positive development, indicating that the Russian financial market is showing a more sober view of extremely volatile non—economic factors," the expert concludes.