The real effective ruble exchange rate has increased. What does this mean?

In October 2025, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble, calculated taking into account inflation and the dynamics of the currencies of the countries with which Russia actively trades, increased by 2.6% compared to September. If we consider the period from January to October, the indicator rose by 24.2% compared to the same period last year. What this means for the Russian economy is in the Izvestia article.

What is an effective course?

• The usual ruble exchange rate is its price in relation to one specific currency, for example, the dollar or the euro. At the same time, the effective ruble exchange rate is the "average" value of the ruble immediately in relation to the currencies of all major trading partners of Russia, taking into account which country occupies what share in Russian trade.

• An effective exchange rate allows you to assess the impact of currency fluctuations on the country's economy, in particular, the incomes of exporters and importers, prices of goods and services, as well as the purchasing power of the population. For businesses, it is a planning tool: a stable or predictable effective exchange rate helps companies make decisions about purchases, investments and pricing, reducing the risks of losses from sharp currency fluctuations.

• For the government, this indicator serves as an indicator of the effectiveness of monetary policy and allows adjusting measures to maintain economic stability. In addition, the effective ruble exchange rate affects inflation, the cost of imported goods, the competitiveness of domestic producers in the foreign market and the financial situation of the population.

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How the ruble exchange rate is changing

• In October 2025, the real effective ruble exchange rate increased by 2.6% compared to the previous month. From January to October, its value increased by 24.2% year-on-year. Against the dollar, the aggregate real exchange rate increased by 2.7% in October and by 28.5% since the beginning of the year, while the euro increased by 3.7% in a month and 17.4% in ten months.

• The Central Bank explained that the ruble is being helped by the regulator's strict policy, a reduction in imports, a drop in Russians' interest in foreign investments and the sale of currency from the National Welfare Fund. At the same time, the depreciation in August and early September was temporary and related to certain seasonal factors.

• Expectations for the average dollar exchange rate have decreased in the expert community. For 2025, the forecast dropped to 85 rubles per dollar, while 85.5 rubles were expected in September and 87.3 rubles in summer. For 2026, experts now assume a level of about 94.6 rubles, which is lower than previous estimates in the range of 96-97.5 rubles.

What does this mean?

• The strengthening of the real effective ruble exchange rate has different effects on different sectors of the economy. Exporters suffer the greatest losses, since some contracts are still conducted in dollars and euros, and with a stronger ruble, companies receive fewer rubles for the same foreign exchange earnings. On the contrary, importers are formally in a winning position, although this is almost invisible in consumer prices: suppliers prefer to maintain the same price level by increasing their own margins.

To spite everyone: why the ruble continues to strengthen

The difficult economic situation is not a hindrance

• Prolonged further strengthening is unlikely. The ruble's dynamics are under pressure from economic growth and inflation, which in a long-term trend leads to a weakening of the exchange rate. The ruble may gradually weaken to the range of 90-100 rubles per dollar, since the current exchange rate is largely supported by the administrative actions of the regulator and does not correspond to real economic conditions. With low growth rates and steady inflation, the national currency has limited opportunities to strengthen.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• financial analyst, Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Belyaev;
• Vasily Koltashov, an economist and head of the Center for Political Economy Studies.