Shaft of expectation: there are no plans to accelerate Ukraine's accession to the EU
Brussels will not accelerate the process of Ukraine's European integration, the head of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, David McAllister, told Izvestia. He stressed that full-fledged EU membership for Kiev will be possible only after fulfilling all the requirements and resolving the conflict. The European Commission previously proposed to introduce a "probation period" for new EU members with some restrictions. Kiev insists on full membership and sees it as a guarantee of security. Experts are confident that Ukraine has no prospects of joining the EU membership yet, and the association itself must resolve a number of difficult issues in order to accept new members. A major corruption scandal involving people from Vladimir Zelensky's inner circle is also playing against Kiev.
The EU will not force Ukraine's European integration
Brussels does not intend to accelerate Ukraine's accession to the EU "beyond its merits," David McAllister, head of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs committee, told Izvestia.
— The debate is not about circumventing conditions, but about ensuring that Ukraine's progress can be transformed into faster steps where it is justified, while respecting strict preconditions. Ukraine's accession cannot be accelerated beyond its merits, but a convincing and consistently supported European perspective is essential for the peace and security of our continent," McAllister told Izvestia.
The politician stressed that "entry should be based solely on merit, full compliance with the Copenhagen criteria, the rule of law and institutional readiness." At the same time, Ukraine will be able to achieve full EU membership only after the conflict is resolved.
— Full EU membership will be possible only after meeting all the requirements and establishing a peace that will allow the accession to work in practice. Enlargement has long been considered one of the European Union's most powerful tools for ensuring peace and stability. Support for Ukraine's European prospects strengthens its stability and demonstrates that Russia cannot veto the democratic choice of a sovereign state," said the head of the EP Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has never objected to Ukraine's membership in the EU. At the same time, the situation may change in the context of the militarization of the European Union, Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. This year, the European Commission announced a plan to rearm the bloc's countries with a total volume of 800 billion euros. Moreover, part of these funds should be used to strengthen Ukraine's defense capability.
In early November, the European Commission published an annual analytical report on Ukraine's progress towards EU membership. It says that Kiev has "made progress in implementing key reforms" and fulfilled the conditions necessary to launch negotiations on the first (basic principles), second (internal market) and sixth (foreign policy) clusters. The Government of Ukraine has outlined its goal to complete accession negotiations by the end of 2028. We recall that Brussels granted Ukraine the status of an EU candidate in 2022.
Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said that he sees Ukraine's membership in the EU as one of the security guarantees that the West must provide. The EC leadership has also repeatedly stated the need to speed up the process of Ukraine's accession to the association. For example, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in May proposed starting negotiations "on the merits" this year. European Commissioner Marta Kos said at the EU Enlargement Forum that by 2027 Ukraine and Moldova will be integrated into the union's energy market.
In January of this year, Hungary blocked the opening of a dialogue on Ukraine's European integration — Prime Minister Viktor Orban demands that Kiev respect the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. However, the EC is now looking for ways to circumvent Budapest's veto.
Ukraine's chances of joining the EU in the next 3-5 years are slim, Daria Moiseeva, Candidate of Political Sciences, chief analyst at ANO Kolaboratoria, told Izvestia. But, given the documents that the EU and Ukraine have already signed, this is a very tangible prospect, and its realism should not be underestimated.
— The format of Ukraine's participation in making common decisions, as well as its entry into the euro area and other "Europe of different speeds" regimes, will obviously be discussed. That is, in the case of Ukraine, integration will definitely be differentiated, and it is not a fact that it will be immediately admitted to the legislative decision—making process on common rights with other full members, the expert believes.
In early November, Marta Kos proposed the idea of a "probation period" for new EU members. For example, newcomers may be excluded from the EU in the event of a "democratic regression", as well as deprived of the right of veto. In Ukraine, this option has already been rejected, insisting on full membership.
However, the prospects for Ukraine's full-fledged accession to the EU are not yet visible either from a political, economic, or institutional point of view, says Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry. The EU has opened a formal path to accession negotiations, but the negotiations themselves have not yet begun, and this is a very long and difficult path, as the example of other, even more prosperous countries shows.
How the corruption scandal affected Ukraine's European integration
However, corruption is hitting Kiev's European prospects the hardest. On November 10, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) announced that they had conducted a large-scale operation called Midas. As a result, a criminal group was identified that stole about $100 million from the state.
Charges were brought against high—ranking government officials, including Justice Minister German Galushchenko (until July he headed the Ministry of Energy), as well as businessman Timur Mindich, the closest associate of the President of Ukraine, who fled the country. The main evidence was 1,000 hours of audio recordings of conversations in Mindich's apartment, thanks to which the investigators managed to reach other participants in the scheme.
The piquancy of the situation is that in the summer, Vladimir Zelensky tried to limit the powers of the NABU and SAP. But under pressure from EU countries and the opposition inside the country, he abandoned this idea. Zelensky's opponents have already gone on the offensive: the party of ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is collecting signatures of deputies of the Verkhovna Rada for the resignation of the government. Western media, citing sources in Kiev, write that Vladimir Zelensky is rapidly losing his rating and is trying to distance himself from the scandal.
The EU is also raising questions about him. According to the head of the Polish Ministry of Defense, Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh, the European Union will not accept Ukraine into its ranks with a high level of corruption. European Commissioner Marta Kos noted that "corruption and organized crime in the EU candidate countries speak to the weakness of democratic institutions and the violation of the rule of law." Izvestia previously reported that the EU is considering increasing the presence of its experts on the territory of Ukraine to monitor where Western aid is being spent.
The scandal occurred at the most inopportune time for Kiev. The administration of Donald Trump does not intend to supply Ukraine free of charge, and the EU is feverishly looking for ways to finance it. Ursula von der Leyen's recent message to the leaders of the EU member states outlined three options: direct grants from the budget, borrowing from financial markets, and using frozen Russian assets.
"There is clearly a serious political and corruption crisis in Ukraine, but even without it, Ukraine, as a full—fledged member of the EU in its current form, is a toxic asset that poses a significant number of problems and brings confusion to the ranks of the EU," emphasized Egor Sergeev.
A certain "acceleration" in 2023-2024 on this issue was due to the political and geopolitical motives of the EU, when the union needed to demonstrate a commitment to the gradual inclusion of Ukraine (and a number of other countries) in its orbit. Now the question arises of what the decision—making procedure will look like, how the already acute problem with the allocation of funds from the EU's general budget will be solved, and so on - there are too many of these topics so far, Sergeev concluded.
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