Not everything is so bad: car sales in Russia may grow by 15% in 2026
The situation in the Russian car market remains difficult, but it has growth trends. Next year will also be difficult for this sector of the economy, but certain improvement trends are already noticeable. This is the conclusion reached by experts, dealers and automakers at the CarXL-2025 conference. The details are in the Izvestia article.
According to last year's scenario
Currently, the situation in the Russian automotive market is developing almost according to the scenario of last year. This was stated by Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of the Autostat analytical agency. He noted that this October could become a record this year in sales of new passenger cars.
— We see that now the situation of last year is practically repeating itself, when there was a noticeable growth in the market in the middle of autumn. Last year, a record was set in October, when almost 180,000 new cars were sold. The situation is similar now: We expect sales to reach about 160,000 vehicles this month," he said.
According to him, both last year and now these "autumn records" are primarily due to the relevant information field: just like a year ago, people are trying to buy cars as soon as possible, fearing that they will rise in price in the near future. At the same time, according to the results of nine months, the average cost of a new car in Russia increased by 2.5% and reached 3.2 million rubles, said Sergey Udalov.
As for used models, according to Autostat, since the beginning of the year, the average price for them has decreased by 1.5% to 1.16 million rubles. At the same time, the dynamics of cost changes in the segment of used cars is uneven, the agency's executive director noted. So, for nine months, the most serious decrease in the average cost (-4%) was recorded for cars younger than three years — 3.16 million rubles. At the same time, used models aged 4-5 years have risen in price by 11% over the same period: the average price for them now stands at 3.04 million rubles.
According to the basic forecast of Autostat, sales of new passenger cars are expected to grow to 1.37 million units next year. The optimistic scenario assumes a 15% increase (up to 1.5 million cars sold), while the pessimistic scenario assumes a 5% decrease in the market to 1.23 million cars.
The path to localization
Experts note that the localization of car production in our country has become a trend this year. For example, production of Tenet—branded cars was launched at the former VW plant in the Kaluga Region, the assembly of Eonyx compact electric cars began in Kaliningrad, production of the third Sollers pickup truck began in Ulyanovsk, and production of a minivan of the same brand began in Tatarstan. The production of Voyah cars has been organized in the Lipetsk region. Other plants may be launched next year.
According to Ivan Saveliev, Executive Director of Hongqi Russia, it will be very difficult to compete in Russia without localization of production. He did not rule out the organization of the production of Hongqi cars in our country under its own brand.
— We are waiting for confirmation of this possibility from the company's headquarters in China. A final decision on this issue has not yet been made," he said.
Decline and growth
The high demand for cars, which began in the middle of summer, will continue until the end of this year, says Mikhail Bakhtiarov, co-founder of the Major dealer company. At the same time, the peak of demand for them will already pass, he noted.
"At the beginning of next year, we will most likely face a sharp drop in car sales," he believes.
Big wheels, big problems
In contrast to the passenger car market, the opposite picture is emerging in the truck segment. Thus, according to Autostat, in the segment of medium–tonnage MCV trucks (3.5-16 tons), sales fell by 46% in the first nine months, and in the HCV segment (over 16 tons) — by 57.4%. The situation in light trucks (LCVs) is slightly better: here the decrease was 21.4%. At the same time, as Viktor Pushkarev, deputy head of the analytics department at the Autostat agency, noted, this segment of the commercial equipment market is less dependent on imports than others: its share is less than 10% of total sales. There is no such strong competition from China as in the segments of medium and heavy trucks, he stressed.
Nevertheless, in 2026, according to the forecast of Autostat experts, it is the LCV segment that has the least chance of improving sales figures. In the baseline scenario, sales are expected to remain at the current level of 88,000 vehicles. The optimistic forecast assumes an increase in the segment of light commercial vehicles by 5%, to 92.4 thousand units. The pessimistic scenario implies a decrease in the number of cars sold by 5%, to 83.6 thousand units. But the volume of sales of medium- and large-tonnage equipment may grow more significantly next year.
"In the baseline scenario, the HCV segment will increase by 20% in 2026 to 54,000 units. Under the optimistic scenario, 58.5 thousand cars will be sold, which is 30% more than the expected results this year. In the pessimistic scenario, the growth will be 10% and 49.5 thousand cars will be sold," Viktor Pushkarev said.
In the segment of medium-tonnage MCV models, the market will increase by 20% with an optimistic forecast (14.4 thousand units) and by 10% (13.2 thousand units) under the baseline scenario. The pessimistic forecast of analysts suggests that this segment will remain at the level of the current year — 12 thousand cars.
A new brand
Despite the skeptical forecasts of experts regarding sales of LCV models, a new player will appear in this segment on the Russian market in the near future — the Normax brand. The first model, the One, was presented at the Car XL conference.
This front-wheel drive Chinese van is equipped with a two-liter 143 hp engine and a six-speed manual transmission. The front-wheel drive has a maximum load capacity of 910 kg. Depending on the design, the body volume varies from 10.7 to 11.9 cubic meters. According to company representatives, 1.5–2 thousand vans are planned to be sold per year.
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