Clouds are gathering: Israel has promised Lebanon a new war
Israel is preparing to resume military operations in Lebanon. The reason is the refusal of the Shiite Hezbollah group to disarm. Its leader, Naim Qasem, declared his readiness to continue resistance, stressing that his associates have every right to own weapons. At the same time, what is happening worries the international mediators, who rushed to Beirut for negotiations. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
They strike
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing to repeat last year's operation Arrows of the North in Lebanon, a source in the northern command said. According to him, the reason was Hezbollah's desire to restore its military potential with the help of foreign sponsors, in particular Iran.
For several days now, Israel has been actively shelling southern and eastern Lebanon. More than a dozen people were killed, most of them members of Hezbollah.
Beirut has repeatedly noted that Israel continues to systematically violate Lebanon's sovereignty, despite the ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024. The Israeli armed Forces maintain a presence in five strategic locations in southern Lebanon, including the northern part of the village of Ghajar, which the Lebanese authorities regard as an ongoing occupation and violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
In Israel, in turn, they claim that the strikes are being carried out on Hezbollah's military infrastructure and with the aim of eliminating the leadership of its combat wing. In addition, the Israeli authorities have repeatedly stressed that they will continue to strike Lebanon in order to eliminate the threat from the Shiite resistance.
The Secretary General of the Allah's Party, Naim Qasem, stressed the day before that his colleagues would keep their weapons, since "defending the motherland is their legitimate right." "The Lebanese state decides for itself how to act within the country regarding the handling of weapons. Israel has nothing to do with this," he said, promising to continue the resistance.
Washington is putting a lot of pressure on Beirut to disarm Hezbollah. U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack has threatened Lebanon with a new confrontation with Israel, which could "resort to unilateral measures." However, Hezbollah is, in fact, a state within a state, and Beirut has no special levers of pressure on the group.
Meanwhile, U.S. Special Representative Morgan Ortagus arrived in the country this week, and Tom Barrack, Secretary General of the Arab League Ahmed Abu Gheit, and Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad are also expected in Lebanon.
An option for Netanyahu
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Eastern Gate Telegram channel, noted in an interview with Izvestia that last year's agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon does not imply the disarmament of Hezbollah.
— By and large, Hezbollah does not undertake such absolute disarmament obligations. As soon as a certain group, force or party in the Middle East lays down its arms, it turns into a club of interests that means little and plays no role," the expert explained.
According to the political scientist, in order to become an important force in the Middle East, "it is necessary to have a certain number of bayonets, always ready for combat."
— Hezbollah may be weakened, and Iran may have certain problems, but the group still retains its combat capability. The level of this combat capability can be discussed, but the combat capability is there. If Hezbollah abandons weapons, it will dissolve into the political field of Lebanon, the expert is sure.
The analyst believes that in this case, the next step will be the physical elimination of Hezbollah and its senior members.
— That is, such a very condescending, very brutal lustration of everything and everything will begin, which with some probability may escalate into a civil war in Lebanon. Therefore, Hezbollah's refusal to disarm is understandable and has an objective meaning, including for the security of Lebanon itself and its residents," Ontikov believes.
He added that a possible war between Israel and Lebanon would be in the hands of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
— This is one of the options, one of the cards that the Israeli prime minister has up his sleeve. He understands perfectly well that if clouds suddenly hang over him, he can always accuse Hezbollah of violating last year's agreements, and there the group was supposed to withdraw north of the Litani River. So this is just one of the options that is very convenient for the Israeli prime minister," the orientalist concluded.
Israel's two goals
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Department of the Near and Post—Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Historical Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Hezbollah is not just a paramilitary group, but also a large political and social structure deeply integrated into Lebanese society.
— It has its own schools, its own hospitals, and even such a powerful media resource as Al-Manar. The legitimacy of Hezbollah is especially important in the eyes of a significant part of the Shiite population of Lebanon, as well as some representatives of other religious groups, who believe that it is one of the few forces in the country that is able to keep Israel at a distance," the political scientist explained.
In his opinion, disarming Hezbollah is like "asking Lebanon to roll back to the state of the early 2000s."
— Because the disarmament of Hezbollah can destabilize Lebanese society. On the one hand, the group mobilizes its own resources, can take many people to the streets, organize mass protests, and act through its media, social and other resources, the expert believes.
On the other hand, Ostanin-Golovnya believes that if Hezbollah loses its military wing, then the question of its existence as a political and social structure will arise.
— And this will upset the existing very fragile and shaky balance between the main political forces of Lebanon. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the nuances surrounding last year's agreements, although in fact there was no formal legally binding agreement on the disarmament of Hezbollah as a whole," the expert added.
The analyst stressed that Hezbollah has never recognized disarmament obligations — neither after the "cedar revolution" in 2006 and under UN Security Council Resolution No. 1701, nor now.
— And this is not stubbornness, but the main political principle of the movement. This is not a tactic, but the basis of the movement's identity, ideology, and declared political goal, Ostanin-Golovnya believes.
The orientalist believes that nothing prevents Israel from conducting some precise operations or even invading the southern regions of Lebanon.
"For Lebanon, every such episode threatens a catastrophe, both humanitarian, economic, and political, because the state has been teetering on the verge of slipping into a failed state for many years," the political scientist believes.
The expert added that Israel has two goals in the current situation.
— The first is to push Hezbollah away from the border, at least 30-40 km deep, as required by UN Security Council Resolution No. 1701. But at the same time, Israel cannot carry out a full-scale ground operation. The second is a demonstration of strength in front of its internal audience, especially against the background of criticism for the operation in Gaza and growing discontent with the country's leadership from the Israeli public," the expert concluded.
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