New Year's Eve — a new attempt: Trump approves covert CIA operation in Venezuela

On Wednesday, October 15, it became known that the White House allegedly allowed the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela. Their goal is to destabilize the government of Nicolas Maduro, with the possible overthrow of the president of the Bolivarian Republic. This was reported by the New York Times newspaper, citing American officials who decided to remain anonymous. Read more about Trump's plan, as well as how Venezuela will react, in the Izvestia article.

An undercover operation

The New York Times reported on Wednesday, October 15, that the administration of US President Donald Trump had secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela. The article says that by doing so, the agency received permission to conduct "deadly operations" in the Bolivarian Republic and the Caribbean. These actions can be carried out either independently or with the support of the US Armed Forces.

One of the agency's sources, who chose to remain anonymous, said: "This is another step by the Trump administration aimed at increasing pressure on Maduro. The ultimate goal is to get him removed from power."

The New York Times article also notes that the intelligence agency will be able to conduct covert operations against Maduro or his government both unilaterally and as part of a larger military operation. However, it is not yet known whether the CIA has any specific plans in this context.

Trump has already confirmed the information in an interview with reporters.: "Actually, I gave permission for two reasons. The first is that they released the prisoners of their prisons to the United States of America. <...> And the other is drugs. We get a lot of drugs from Venezuela."

Recently, the US military has stepped up pressure on the Latin American country and attacked ships off the coast of Venezuela that allegedly transported drugs. In this regard, Trump noted that the United States was targeting land, "because we have the sea under full control."

American political scientist Malek Dudakov, in an interview with Izvestia, focused on the large number of leaks in the American press.

— This suggests that not all CIA officials are loyal to Trump, and they seem to leak this information to the press in advance. Accordingly, Venezuela has the opportunity to prepare," the expert noted.

Maduro's resignation

Egor Lidovsky, director of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center, told Izvestia that the United States has little chance of removing Maduro by non-military means. He also recalled that many attempts have already been made, but all of them have failed, so the success of new ones is unlikely.

— The path of armed conflict is another matter. The United States has a much better chance here due to its obvious advantage in financial and military power. But Trump is only interested in the blitzkrieg option: a protracted war can greatly undermine his position not only on the world stage, but also within the United States. And Venezuela has every chance to turn the conflict into a protracted phase and resist for a long time, the expert believes.

Sergei Mikhailov, a leading RISI expert, also noted in an interview with Izvestia that Trump, of course, would like to see the regime in Venezuela change, but it is unlikely that he will get involved in long-term conflicts for this.

Malek Dudakov recalled that the CIA had previously operated in Latin America to overthrow the regime in Venezuela. However, all attempts by the US intelligence agencies in recent decades have failed. As an example, the expert cites the attempt to overthrow Hugo Chavez (president of Venezuela in 1999-2002 and 2002-2013 — Izvestia) in 2002. Another example is 2019, when the United States supported opposition leader Juan Guaido, who declared himself head of state.

The situation today is different from the previous ones, but the expert doubts that the United States can do anything this time.

Political analyst Igor Pshenichnikov added that it is not known for sure what exactly Trump told the CIA to do due to the fact that such presidential orders are top secret. In addition to the physical elimination of Nicolas Maduro, we can also talk about recruiting military personnel in the country, because the Venezuelan army supports Maduro, which is very important in Latin American countries.

In this context, the Izvestia interlocutor adds that the Americans have a lot of levers of influence on the situation in the region, but they do not exist in three countries — Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. This is due to the fact that the leaders of these countries perfectly understand how Americans work and are proactive.

Will there be an escalation of the conflict between the United States and Venezuela

According to Yegor Lidovsky, against the background of what is happening now, the risks of direct escalation between the countries are quite high. The main ideologist of this, the expert recalls, is US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who convinces Trump that "this will be an easy walk for free oil, the largest proven reserves of which are in Venezuela."

— Trump has not yet made a decision and is trying to weigh the pros and cons — the likelihood of Rubio's plan being implemented or, on the contrary, the possibility of getting stuck in Venezuela like in Vietnam, which he does not like at all. If Rubio's proposal is accepted, then a direct confrontation will not be avoided," said Yegor Lidovsky.

Sergei Mikhailov believes that Trump will try to avoid involvement in a serious conflict.

— He will try to achieve quick results with a cavalry charge and finish off just as quickly. In other words, he clearly adheres to the view that prolonged conflicts are destructive and dangerous not only for the United States, but also for the career and image of the country's leaders," the expert notes.

Igor Pshenichnikov also does not rule out the option of force, but adds that the United States is hesitating, among other things, because of the risk of heavy losses.

Not a strong impression

According to Sergey Mikhailov, Venezuela, in the event of active US actions on its soil, will turn to the world community, in particular, to China and Russia.

— Of course, there will be rhetoric, statements, appeals to other powers, neighboring Latin American states. Many of them will support and make angry condemnations of American policy. But it is unlikely that this will make a strong impression on Trump, the expert believes.

Yegor Lidovsky also recalled that Venezuela is currently conducting large-scale military exercises, while simultaneously trying to resolve the conflict through diplomatic efforts.

"However, if the military phase begins, there is no doubt that the country will put up a worthy resistance to the United States, using its entire arsenal of weapons with the full support of the people of the Bolivarian Republic," the expert concludes.