On the edge of the world: the Gas deal ran into problems on the very first day
Israel and Hamas found themselves on the verge of a new round of confrontation a day after the signing of the ceasefire agreement. The disputes over the transfer of the bodies of the dead hostages and the disarmament of the Palestinian movement threaten to undermine the fragile compromise reached through international mediation. Israel has already decided to limit humanitarian supplies to the exclave. Despite statements about the parties' willingness to comply with the agreements, disagreements on key points — from the timing of the withdrawal of IDF units to the mechanisms of post—war governance of the Gaza Strip - remain unresolved. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council has not yet provided any details of the deal, the Russian permanent mission to the international organization told Izvestia.
How many bodies of hostages remain in Gaza
The Russian Permanent Mission to the United Nations told Izvestia that the members of the Security Council have not yet provided details of the agreement between Israel and Hamas, brokered by the United States and a number of Arab countries. The mission noted that the Security Council does not register any related initiatives.
— If they do, we'll study and see. There are many aspects of this problem that need to be dealt with," the permanent mission told Izvestia.
At the same time, the parties to the conflict have already exchanged mutual accusations of violating the agreements, which cast doubt on the stability of the truce.
Israel has given Hamas until the end of October 14 to move forward with the transfer of the bodies of the dead hostages, accusing the movement of violating the terms of the ceasefire agreement. According to the agreement, all the remains of the hostages were to be handed over before noon on October 13, but Hamas confirmed the transfer of only four bodies. In total, the bodies of 24 prisoners remain in Gaza.
The Israeli authorities decided not to open the Rafah checkpoint on the border with Egypt on October 15 and to reduce the volume of humanitarian supplies to the Gaza Strip. According to the Ynet portal, this decision was a reaction to Hamas' violation of its obligations to transfer the bodies of the dead hostages. Israel warned that further delaying this process could have consequences. The Reuters news agency reports that Hamas will begin transferring the bodies of four more hostages on the night of October 14-15.
Ynet sources clarify that Israel has consulted with the United States, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey on the issue of the return of the bodies (it was representatives of these countries who signed the final ceasefire agreement as mediators on October 13). At the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, Hamas representatives said they had information about the whereabouts of about half of the bodies of the dead hostages, and Israel expected to hand over at least 15 bodies after the truce came into force.
According to the Kan TV and radio company, Israel is confident that the militants deliberately did not transfer some of the bodies. Intermediaries claim that it is difficult for the movement to find all the remains, as they may be under the rubble.
Despite this, Arab diplomats involved in the negotiation process assure that the truce in Gaza is not under threat.
— The Palestinian side appeals to the fact that the collection and preparation of the bodies of the dead hostages has been complicated for a long time due to the activity of Israeli aviation, including strikes on multi-storey buildings (under which, according to rumors, boxes with remains were located). Israel believes that in this way Hamas is trying to hide the traces of violent deaths in captivity," orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.
According to him, so far both sides have agreed to "stretch" the deadline for the transfer of bodies beyond the first stage of the agreement, however, if this process is delayed, the Israeli "hawks" will have a weighty argument for putting pressure on both their own government and the American administration overseeing the implementation of the agreements.
On Monday night, four bodies were taken to the Abu Kabir Institute of Forensic Medicine, where the identification process continues. Israeli officials said the army "will not rest until all the dead are returned to their families and interred in Israel." At the same time, as noted by the Israeli media, the Jewish state has "insufficient effective levers of influence on Hamas" in this matter.
The ceasefire agreement, signed in Egypt on Monday with the mediation of the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, provides for the creation of a coordination mechanism under the auspices of the International Committee of the Red Cross. Through him, Hamas must provide available information about the hostages, and Israel must provide information about the detained Palestinians and the remains of dead Gazans. At the same time, Hamas and Israel did not participate in the signing ceremony of the agreement.
Leonid Tsukanov believes that the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities in the near future is low. According to him, Israel is interested in ending the current campaign and reducing internal tension, including by returning reservists to civilian life.
— The rapid resumption of fighting will be evidence of Israel's inability to work towards detente. On the other hand, the Israelis have a number of "red lines" in Gaza. And one of them is the issue of disarmament," the expert told Izvestia.
On October 13, Hamas, as part of an agreement with Israel, released the last 20 living hostages, among them Maxim Kharkin, a native of Donbass. Harkin's mother said that the family intends to come to Moscow to personally thank the president for his assistance in freeing the hostage. The Kremlin told Izvestia that a meeting between Vladimir Putin and the released Kharkin is not yet planned. As Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted, the Russian side "shares the common joy" of his return home.
A fragile truce
Although the agreement reached the day before was an important breakthrough in resolving the conflict, serious challenges remain ahead. The main contradictions relate to the disarmament of Hamas, the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the final cessation of hostilities. The document proclaims the goal of "demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent observers," but does not contain specific details.
The most controversial point remains the disarmament of the movement: the agreement does not specify either the time frame or the stages of this process, nor the mechanism for destroying "all military and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and production facilities of Hamas." Representatives of the Palestinian movement emphasize that they are ready to discuss the surrender of weapons only during consultations with other Palestinian forces, the purpose of which will be to work out a joint agreement.
If Hamas finally refuses to lay down its arms and leave the Gaza Strip, Israel, according to Tsukanov, may be authorized to conduct limited and targeted deterrence operations, however, without switching to full-scale military operations like Gideon's Chariot.
—The issue of disarmament remains a key source of disagreement," Iraqi expert Safaa al-Assam said in an interview with Izvestia.
According to him, there is no mechanism yet that would allow accepting and controlling the surrender of weapons to Hamas. In addition, the parties interpret the scope of obligations differently: if Hamas insists on maintaining defensive means, separating them from offensive ones, then Israel demands the complete disarmament of the movement and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip.
Uncertainty remains about the withdrawal of Israeli troops. The document provides for their withdrawal to the "agreed line", but does not specify the timing and sequence of stages. The plan also calls for the creation of an Israeli buffer zone inside Gaza, while Hamas insists on the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territory of the exclave. Disagreements on these points can disrupt the implementation of the agreements and lead to the resumption of hostilities.
The long-term parameters of the sector's management after the end of the war remain unclear. The interim government of the Palestinian technocrats provided for in the agreement still exists only on paper, and the role of the international curators — former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President Donald Trump, who headed the so-called "Peace Council" — has not been determined. The creation of an International Stabilization Force with the participation of Arab and world partners also faces serious difficulties: without the consent of Palestinian structures, including Hamas, it is difficult to imagine that the Arab States will agree to send their troops there.
In addition, the creation of a Palestinian State will face fierce Israeli resistance. Under such conditions, the Gulf states will not be ready to finance the reconstruction of Gaza, which, according to preliminary estimates, will require over $50 billion.
Meanwhile, according to Palestinian media reports, clashes between Hamas forces and armed groups opposed to its rule resumed in the Gaza Strip on October 14. Representatives of the movement said they were conducting a "large-scale operation against collaborators with Israel." According to local sources, at least 30 people were killed during the fighting in the Jabalia area.
The Asharq al-Awsat newspaper notes that Hamas is seeking to regain control of the strip: the movement has increased its presence in the central and southern areas where Israeli troops were previously stationed. Sources say that the militants are checking cars on the roads and detaining members of armed groups that appeared during the war.
According to the BBC, the Hamas leadership has mobilized about 7,000 fighters to "restore order" and appointed five new governors who previously served in the organization's military wing.
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