Supply rates: Russia must increase grain exports to $20 billion by 2030
By 2030, Russia intends to increase grain exports by about 14% compared to 2024, to almost $20 billion. The supply of fat and oil products should increase by a similar amount and reach about $10 billion, said Ilya Ilyushin, head of the federal center for Agroexport. Izvestia investigated which regions of Russia have the greatest potential for grain production growth, as well as which investments are needed to expand acreage and increase yields.
Growth potential
According to forecasts for 2025, it is expected that the volume of grain production will be sufficient not only to fully meet the needs of the domestic market, but also to form a significant resource intended for export, the press service of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia.
"By 2030, the largest increase in grain production compared to 2024, under favorable weather conditions, is expected in the Rostov, Volgograd, Voronezh, Saratov regions, Krasnodar Territory and the Republic of Bashkortostan," the ministry said.
A significant role in the development of foreign economic relations is played by a foreign network of agricultural attaches, the ministry added. Currently, 40 representatives of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture are helping domestic companies promote their products to international markets, representing the country's interests in 38 countries.
Russia is one of the key suppliers of grain to world markets and holds the leadership in wheat exports, ensuring the stability of food supplies for partner countries, the press service of the Ministry of Energy told Izvestia. The main demand for Russian grains is formed by friendly countries, which by 2025 will occupy more than 97% of the supply structure of staple crops. More than half of the exported grain is sent to the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, with further growth in shipments to these regions projected by 2030.
The bulk of grain produced in Russia falls on the Southern, Volga and Siberian Federal districts, where about 61% of national production is concentrated, the department noted. There is significant potential in these regions to increase the volume of cultivation due to the development of cultivation technologies, expansion of acreage and increased yields.
At the state level, the goal is to increase the output of the agro-industrial complex by at least a quarter by 2030 relative to the level of 2021, the Ministry of Energy recalled. To this end, the federal program for the development of the agro-industrial complex provides for various forms of support: the provision of preferential investment loans, leasing of agricultural machinery, modernization of enterprises and financing the construction of storage and processing facilities.
Supply logistics
The growth of grain production in Russia is concentrated mainly in the southern and central chernozem regions, where a modern base and advanced logistics have already been created, and additional potential has been laid in Siberia and the Far East, which can increase volumes through the development of new lands and the introduction of resource-saving technologies, the president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) told Izvestia Russian Federation Sergey Katyrin. To realize this potential, investments in land reclamation, equipment upgrades, seed production and the construction of modern storage facilities are required. Export efficiency directly depends on the state of the port and railway infrastructure: about 90% of shipments pass through the southern ports, where they are being upgraded, in parallel with the active development of Far Eastern terminals aimed at Asian markets.
View of the port of Alanya, Turkey
— Egypt and Turkey, as well as the countries of the Middle East, North and East Africa, will remain the main importers of Russian grain in the horizon until 2030. There is growing interest from China, Indonesia and Vietnam, given the diversification of food supplies and the competitive price of Russian grain," he said.
Russia holds a leading position in the global grain market and port facilities play a key role in this, Galina Erendzhenova, Director of Export Logistics Development at the Russian Export Center, told Izvestia. About 70% of export volumes are accounted for in the Azov-Black Sea basin and about 15% in the ports of the Far East. These two areas perform different strategic functions: the first serves as the main "grain gateway" of the country, while the second promotes the development of exports from Siberia and strengthens its position in the markets of the Asia-Pacific region. The growth of transshipment is limited by the capacity of the railway infrastructure. Further development of the industry requires investments in ports, expansion of railway tracks and joint actions of the government and business.
Increasing yields is possible through the introduction of new varieties of domestic breeding, the use of fertilizers and the development of plant protection systems, Viktor Zhurba, an expert in the Popular Front, told Izvestia. Analytics", member of the Committee of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation on entrepreneurship in the field of real estate economics. The expansion of acreage and the construction of modern grain storage facilities remains an important area, as the lack of elevators reduces crop quality and export potential. At the same time, against the background of declining wheat margins, more and more farmers are switching to industrial crops, developing the processing and export of finished products.
Transport and port infrastructure are critically important for turning an increase in grain production into an increase in exports, Maxim Maksimov, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor at the Department of Innovation and Industrial Policy Management at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told Izvestia. The main burden now falls on the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin, through which most of the grain exports pass. Their development requires an increase in capacity, deepening of water areas and improvement of access roads. At the same time, geopolitical tensions make it necessary to diversify routes, including ports in the Far East and the active use of the Northern Sea Route.
Investments should be targeted, as expanding acreage in regions remote from ports can increase production, but it is not profitable in the current market conditions, Denis Ternovsky, a leading researcher at the Center for Agri-food Policy at the Presidential Academy, said in an interview with Izvestia. Productivity is determined by the weakest link in the chain, so universal solutions often lead to inefficient use of funds.
Investments should be focused on science, human capital development and the production of high-tech equipment in order to increase the export potential of high-value-added products, Andrei Zhukovsky, senior researcher at the Institute of Regional Economics and Inter-Budgetary Relations at the Financial University under the Government, told Izvestia. Efficient port and transport infrastructure, product quality, and logistics are critical for long-term export planning. The main strategic markets remain Uzbekistan, China and Latin American countries, where investments in infrastructure can ensure stable sales.
Small and medium-sized businesses are becoming an important factor in the development of the Russian agricultural sector, shaping modern approaches to farming and stimulating innovation, Alexander Isaevich, CEO of the SME Corporation, told Izvestia. Its products are in demand both inside and outside the country. About 62,000 SMEs operate in the field of grain and oilseed crops, more than half of which are concentrated in the leading agricultural regions. The largest share of such farms is in the Krasnodar and Rostov regions, as well as in the Stavropol Territory and the Volga region.
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