Indian Tea Party: Starmer will try to distance New Delhi from Russia

London will require New Delhi to reduce contacts with Moscow during the visit of the British delegation to India on October 8-9, experts and politicians interviewed by Izvestia believe. Despite the fact that the main topic of the Prime minister's first trip in nine years is to discuss economic contacts, it is unlikely that the issue of close cooperation between the BRICS founders of India and the Russian Federation will be avoided. However, Russia and India have very close ties, and we should not expect major changes in Narendra Modi's policy. London does not have any levers of pressure, and economically, the United Kingdom is not able to replace India's cooperation with the Russian Federation.

What is Keir Starmer's agenda for going to India?

For the first time in nine years, a British prime minister will pay an official visit to India. A delegation of more than 100 representatives of business, education and culture, led by Keir Starmer, will arrive in Mumbai on October 8 and will stay there for two days.

The main topic of talks between Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be economic issues, according to the Foreign Ministries of both countries, as well as discussion of projects in the fields of technology and innovation, security, climate and energy, healthcare and education within the framework of the Vision 2035 strategy (roadmap of projects for the next ten years).

In July, India and the United Kingdom signed a free trade agreement after three years of discussions. It is expected that it will help increase the level of bilateral trade to $120 billion by 2030. This is London's largest trade agreement since Brexit, according to foreign analysts.

— The UK and India actually have quite a broad agenda for discussion. They have been negotiating a free trade agreement for several years, such a full-scale strategic partnership within the framework of the joint partnership roadmap. They also have a ten-year program, a work card for a joint program, trade, and investments. At the same time, London considers India as part of a common approach to the countries of the Global South, in the context of reducing Russia's influence on these countries," Kira Godovanyuk, PhD in political Science, a leading researcher at the Center for British Studies of the IE RAS, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

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For both countries, in particular, issues related to labor migration are important, as India has been pushing for the UK for a long time to facilitate the access of Indian labor migrants, including those with high qualifications, to the British labor market.

According to some analysts, establishing contacts with the UK may help India move forward on the issue of concluding a trade agreement with the EU. The next round of negotiations has been underway in Brussels since October 6. It is difficult for a number of reasons: in particular, Brussels wants India to reduce duties on car imports. However, according to Western media, Brussels and New Delhi have an additional strong motivation to compromise on the US tariff policy under Donald Trump.

India will not refuse to cooperate with the Russian Federation

Nevertheless, it is obvious that Starmer and Modi will not ignore the discussion of issues on the international agenda. In particular, the UK will try to put pressure on India to reduce its cooperation with Moscow, Vladimir Jabarov, first deputy head of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

— I think that Starmer will make every effort in any field to worsen our relations with India <...> He will persuade India, but first of all it has its own economic interest, they will not be fooled so easily, they will evasively answer any questions. It will be difficult to lead India off the path of independent development that it has embarked on," he said.

According to Bloomberg, in the first half of 2025, the trade turnover between Russia and India reached $69.2 billion, which turned out to be only 4.5% lower than the trade turnover between Russia and the European Union. Among the leading goods that the country exported to Russia in 2023-2024 are chemical products, medicines, machinery, equipment and agricultural products. The main volume of Russian exports is accounted for by energy carriers, as well as metals and fertilizers. Russia as a whole is the largest supplier of oil to India. The parties are also developing settlements in national currencies — their share has already exceeded 90%, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said in September 2025. Earlier, Moscow and New Delhi agreed to increase trade turnover to $100 billion by 2030. At the same time, Russian leader Vladimir Putin is due to visit India at the end of the year. The Head of the Russian Federation has repeatedly said that the dialogue between the two countries is actively developing — cooperation is based on the principle of a special privileged strategic partnership.

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Russia is one of India's four largest partners, and it is likely that London may use this card against New Delhi.

— This topic does not sound official, but I think London is interested in putting Indian pressure on Russia. However, this is unlikely to be a correct and effective strategy, given that India has an independent position on this issue. But perhaps, through some economic deals, London will try to reduce Russia's influence on India," says Kira Godovanyuk.

The UK will convince the Indian leadership to minimize purchases of Russian energy resources, according to Andrei Kortunov, an expert at Valdai. But it is unlikely that it will be possible to turn the conversation into a practical plane, since London itself cannot offer any alternatives to Russian energy resources for India. Recall that at the end of August, the United States imposed additional 25% duties on goods from India precisely because the country buys oil from the Russian Federation. This has just increased the tariff on Indian exports to the United States to 50%. Trump also invited EU countries to join this measure.

Speaking at Valdai on October 2, Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that India would not abandon the purchase of Russian energy resources. According to the president, this could cause $9-10 billion in damage to the country. The media reported that over the past three years, the supply of Russian energy resources to India has increased more than 20 times, 37% of which is oil.

— We have already seen these attempts to pressure India from the leadership of the European Union. A very representative delegation from Brussels came to Delhi, and then the same issues were raised at the bilateral Indian-American talks, and it is clear that the United States has a greater set of levers of influence on the Indian side. Nevertheless, we see that attempts to put pressure on India have not brought much success," said Andrei Kortunov.

India, Russia's BRICS partner, has maintained positive relations with Moscow since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, and the country has consistently advocated a diplomatic solution to resolve the conflict.