Controlled tourism: new accounting system will hit shadow travel
The new unified model of tourist accounting, which the Ministry of Energy intends to introduce, can significantly reduce the share of shadow trips through the private sector and online services, but it will not be possible to completely eliminate them. The introduction of the system will change the perception of tourist flows in the regions: territories with developed unorganized tourism will benefit, and large centers may face data adjustments. In light of this, according to experts, it is important to ensure transparency and protection of personal data in order to avoid the influence of hidden beneficiaries and conflicts of interest between the state, regions and businesses in the allocation of resources. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The problem of shadow tourism and challenges of standardization
The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia is developing a unified system for tracking tourists in the country's regions. According to Deputy Minister Sergey Nazarov, the main difficulty lies in developing a unified approach to determining the status of a tourist: whether to consider as such a person who spent one day in the region, or only those who stayed overnight.
Currently, statistics are based on data on the accommodation of travelers. According to this method, the North Caucasus will receive about 3.5–3.6 million tourists by the end of the year. However, regional calculation methods show significantly higher rates. The new accounting system should create a more accurate and comparable picture of tourist activity throughout Russia, a source in the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation told Izvestia.
The current practice of accounting for tourists is based primarily on data on collective accommodation facilities, which does not cover a significant part of trips through the private sector and online rental services. These discrepancies significantly affect the accuracy of travel statistics.
"A unified accounting system can really reduce the proportion of trips that are "invisible" to statistics — those that pass through private apartments or online rental services," says Tatyana Lobach, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Tourism. — But it is impossible to completely remove the shadow segment: some transactions will continue to take place without leaving digital traces. It is realistic to say that the underestimation can be reduced by almost half if you connect mobile data, banking statistics and online platforms.
Discussing the possibilities of the new methodology, Andrei Markov, a member of the State Duma Committee on Tourism, notes the difficulties in creating an effective assessment of the tourist flow.
— The main problem is that the accounting methodology in the tourism industry is still in its infancy. The search for new adequate approaches continues," he says. — The plan document contains a detailed algorithm for calculating the main indicators of tourist flow, but it is hardly possible to cover absolutely all tourist trips in our country with statistics.
Markov emphasizes that improving accounting is important for the correct allocation of budget funds and government support.
"The effect of tourism development in the regions is important to the state, because, firstly, it justifies the forms of state support, and secondly, the growth of budget revenues is associated with this," he notes.
In 2024, domestic tourism in Russia reached unprecedented proportions: the number of trips ranged from 90 to 120 million, which is about a third more than two years ago. These data are provided by Rosstat and specialized analytical organizations. Moscow has consolidated its status as the largest tourist center, hosting about 26 million guests, while Krasnodar Territory, St. Petersburg and Crimea also remain popular destinations. Dagestan and other territories of the North Caucasus stand out among the regions with the highest growth rate, according to the Association of Russian Tour Operators and Russpass.
There is also a noticeable increase in inbound tourism, which is facilitated by the visa-free regime with China and the opening of new flights: according to MTS Travel and relevant agencies, almost 10 million foreign tourists visited Russia. At the same time, up to half of the domestic tourist flow is accounted for by the unregistered sector — private rental housing and independent travel, this is confirmed by research by the Ministry of Economic Development and industry experts.
Digitalization and ethical aspects of accounting
The use of mobile data, banking, and digital services increases the accuracy of calculations, but raises issues of privacy and control over the movement of people.
But the National Resort Association believes that digital solutions will open up new opportunities for resort development.
"The integration of mobile data, digital platforms and other solutions opens up significant opportunities for resort regions to accurately track tourists for medical and wellness purposes," the association's commentary says. — This will not only improve statistics, but also optimize the development of sanatorium infrastructure and investments, personalize the offer and improve the quality of services.
Commenting on the issue of privacy, Maria Zyukova, a spokeswoman for the Turpomosh Association, emphasizes the balance between digitalization and administrative burden.
"It's not about redistribution, it's about fair assessment and new opportunities," she says. — The main thing is that the new model does not add excessive bureaucratic burden to the business. The market needs a simple and automated way to transfer data.
Evgeny Elfimov, a member of the General Council of Delovaya Rossiya and founder of the Russian tourism platform "Let's Go!", notes that there will be no ethical problems with proper implementation.
— Tourists will be anonymized in the calculations. The main thing is quantity, and personal data is not affected here," he says. — If all platforms are given a simple and understandable query, they will integrate it into analytics and will regularly collect the necessary information.
Regions are winning and adapting to new statistics
According to experts, the introduction of a unified methodology will lead to a revision of the ratings of tourist regions, but not to revolutionary changes.
Andrey Maksimov, General Director of the Union of Russian Cities, notes that there will be no radical change in the understanding of the tourist flow. The data will become more accurate, but the leaders will remain the same: Moscow, St. Petersburg, and seaside resorts.
Expert Marina Smirnova from CMWP adds that there are big discrepancies with official statistics in the south, the Caucasus, Baikal, Altai. The regions roughly know their tourist flow, and the new methodology will only provide more accurate information.
Leonid Gunkevich, a member of the General Council and deputy head of the Business Russia Tourism Committee, emphasizes the need for a transparent methodology and independent audit.
— A single methodology is needed so that everyone considers tourists equally and according to clear rules, — he says. — This will allow you to plan the infrastructure, and for businesses to understand where to open hotels, cafes and new routes.
He adds that resorts with a developed private sector will benefit, and the largest cities may see an adjustment to reduce the flow.
Potential conflict points and control risks
Alexander Bragin, General Director of the Association of Travel Aggregators, and Nikita Korostelev, director of the Tutu service, note that it is still difficult to assess the final effect of the new model.
— It will be useful for the state, regions and businesses to take into account the maximum number of trips, but how to implement this is a question, — says Bragin.
Mobile operators and digital platforms "see" tourists' behavior in an impersonal way, Korostelev adds. Good integration, he said, will require carefully crafted data protection mechanisms.
Tatiana Lobach draws attention to the possible strengthening of the role of IT companies and telecom operators, which requires transparent rules.
— Privacy and control issues will inevitably become relevant: mobile operators and IT companies actually gain access to key data. To avoid conflicts of interest and fraud, we need a transparent methodology, independent audit and common rules for everyone," she says.
At the same time, Andrei Maksimov denies conspiracy suspicions about lobbying.
— In my opinion, you should not look for an obvious business order to "twist" the data. Aggregated data helps to identify trends more accurately and saturate the service market," he emphasizes.
All the experts surveyed agree that the new unified tourist accounting system is an important step for the development of the industry, improving transparency and increasing the efficiency of budget investments.
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