Sea robbery: The situation in Venezuela is approaching a military escalation

The threat of a US military strike loomed over Venezuela — against this background, Caracas began exercises in the Caribbean Sea. They involve more than 2.5 thousand soldiers, 22 aircraft, over 30 ships and boats. Meanwhile, Washington is increasing its military presence in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago are also ready to host American contingents. The United States explains its actions by fighting drug trafficking, while experts see them as an attempt to change power in the Latin American state in order to simplify access to the republic's natural resources. What is happening in the region and why Russia does not need destabilization in Venezuela — in the Izvestia article.

Venezuela begins exercises in the Caribbean

In response to the increased US military presence in the Caribbean, Venezuela began large-scale exercises on September 17 on the island of La Orchila in the north of the country, said Defense Minister of the Bolivarian Republic Vladimir Padrino Lopez.

"On the instructions of our Commander-in-Chief, President Nicolas Maduro, I order the Caribbean 200 campaign maneuvers to be deployed and conducted on the island of La Orchila. We will strengthen our capabilities, cohesion and training of each of the units," Padrino Lopez said, speaking on the VTV state television channel, adding that his country would defend itself against the "threatening voice" of the United States.

The exercises, which will last three days, will involve 12 warships, 22 aircraft and 20 naval militia boats, as well as about 2.5 thousand soldiers.

The exercises are taking place 97 nautical miles from the place where the United States detained a Venezuelan fishing vessel on September 12. On that day, the US military boarded the ship, where there were, according to Caracas, "nine humble fishermen engaged in tuna fishing," and they were held for eight hours. In Venezuela, the incident was called a "provocation with the illegal use of disproportionate military means" and a continuation of the "failed policy of regime change." The American authorities claim that they stopped the boat after receiving a message that there might be a shipment of drugs on it. Having found no prohibited substances, the ship was released. The United States denies Venezuela's accusations that the fishermen have been held for a long time.

Washington began deploying its military forces in the Caribbean region back in August, after Donald Trump signed a directive allowing the Pentagon to use military force against some Latin American drug cartels. In the context of Venezuela, we are talking about the Tren de Aragua criminal group and the so-called "Cartel of the Suns" (Cartel de los Soles). Washington considers the president of the Bolivarian Republic, Nicolas Maduro, to be the head of the latter, and a reward of $50 million is promised for help in his capture.

Judging by the latest satellite images, the United States has increased its presence in the region over the past week. In particular, the footage shows a C-17 Globemaster III military transport aircraft, which is located at the airport on Santa Cruz Island (Virgin Islands), as well as three KC-46 Pegasus tanker aircraft. Judging by the same images, the Ticonderoga-class missile cruiser USS Lake Erie arrived in Puerto Rico, and earlier six F-35B fighters. Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago also announced their readiness to receive the American military contingent. Since the first one, Venezuela has been in a territorial dispute over the oil-rich territory of Essequibo.

"At present, we have no information about changes in the composition of the forces," the Pentagon told Izvestia, answering a question about how many military aircraft and warships are currently involved in operations to prevent drug trafficking in the Caribbean.

Since the start of the operation, the United States has already launched two strikes against Venezuelan ships allegedly carrying drugs. On September 2, during the first of them, according to American data, 11 members of the Tren de Aragua cartel were killed, during the second — on September 15 — three.

"Be careful — if you're transporting drugs that can kill Americans, we're after you!" wrote Donald Trump on his Truth Social network.

The risk of a US military invasion of Venezuela

Venezuela claims that by its actions the United States is dragging Caracas into a war that, according to Maduro, "violates all norms of international law." The purpose of the operation in Caracas is seen as destabilization and regime change in the country. At the same time, Washington does not recognize the results of the 2024 presidential election, as a result of which Maduro was re-elected.

— There is a real possibility of a regime change operation in Venezuela. The driving force behind these efforts is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The fight against drugs is just an excuse. The real motivation is to overthrow the leftist government of an oil—rich country that is not subordinate to the United States, but is linked to Russia, China and Iran. It is unlikely that the United States will use ground forces, but it can launch a decapitating strike similar to the one that Israel tried to launch on Iran, Jim Jatras, a former foreign policy adviser to the Republican Party leadership in the Senate, is confident.

It is unlikely that the United States will decide to invade Venezuela, although many in the US government would like to see Nicolas Maduro removed from the presidency, confirms University of Georgia professor Charles C. Bullock III.

By accusing Nicolas Maduro of complicity in drug trafficking, Trump has a much better chance of removing him from the presidency than simply accusing him of usurping power in the republic, analyst Alex Krainer believes.

— During Trump's last term, the United States already tried to organize regime change in Venezuela in 2019 by the forces of Juan Guaido. At that time, no one was talking about drug trafficking. Today, perhaps they believe that accusing Maduro of drug trafficking can gain public support faster than talking about the confiscation of Venezuelan oil. It would probably also be a more legitimate slogan for the Venezuelan opposition, which itself has often accused the Maduro regime of drug trafficking," the American expert emphasized.

There is very little evidence that Venezuela is a major supplier of drugs to the United States, and Mexico and Colombia have historically been more involved in this process, said Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor—in-chief of Covert Action magazine.

— The U.S. government has long wanted to destabilize and overthrow the Venezuelan government in order to regain access to the country's significant oil resources. Historically, American oil companies controlled Venezuelan oil, but in the late 1990s, Venezuela experienced a socialist revolution led by Hugo Chavez, and now the country is ruled by his successor, Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela has been subjected to sanctions, multiple coup attempts, and a propaganda offensive in the American and international media. The accusations of drug trafficking fit into this paradigm, but they are not based on reality," Kuzmarov says.

Earlier, Moscow expressed support for Venezuela and opposed the threat of the use of force against sovereign states.

"This is an absolutely unacceptable method of doing business, this is undisguised pressure on all fronts that is being exerted on Venezuela," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on September 4.

It is not beneficial for Russia to destabilize the political situation in a Latin American country. In May, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Nicolas Maduro signed an agreement on strategic cooperation. The parties agreed to cooperate on international platforms, promote strict observance of international law by all members of the international community, and regularly hold high-level and high-level meetings.

In addition, Moscow and Caracas are interested in working together on the exploration and development of new oil and natural gas fields, as well as developing cooperation in the electric power industry.