Crisis of big wheels: truck sales in Russia have collapsed by 60%
Truck sales continue to fall rapidly: by the end of August, sales of this equipment decreased by 60%. Moreover, unlike passenger cars, heavy vehicles from China lost much more customers than the market as a whole. Experts attribute the extremely difficult situation in this segment to record sales of commercial vehicles in previous years and a high key interest rate. Without serious government support aimed at stimulating demand and major infrastructure projects, the recovery of the truck market will be very difficult and time-consuming, experts say. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Below the baseboard
By the end of August, 3,682 heavy trucks (weighing over 16 tons) were sold in Russia. This was announced during the online conference "Autostat. Operational information," said Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of the Autostat analytical agency. Compared to August last year, the HCV (Heavy Commercial Vehicle) market fell by 60%, and sales of these vehicles fell by 57% in eight months, he added. Unlike the passenger car market, where growth was noted in July and August, sales of commercial vehicles in August remained almost at the same level as in July: last month, only 43 trucks were sold more than the month before.
According to Autostat, a serious decline in the market is recorded for almost all types of heavy machinery. Thus, sales of truck tractors fell by 71%, dump trucks — by 68%, vans — by 61%, and on—board versions - by 50%. At the same time, according to Sergey Tselikov, the general director of the agency, only the segment of special equipment feels relatively good (a drop of only 16%), where the share of state and municipal orders is high.
Of the five most popular truck brands, only domestic KAMAZ shows good results (against the background of the general decline in the market) — vehicles from Tatarstan sold 1,165 units (-1%) last month. Thus, the Russian auto giant has almost returned to the results of last year, taking a market share of 32%. Chinese manufacturers of heavy machinery, which are among the top 5, on the contrary, show a serious negative trend.
Thus, Shacman, which took second place in August, sold 584 cars, which is 63% worse than last year. Sales of Sitrak trucks (third position, 383 vehicles) fell by 78%, the Howo brand (4th place, 285 vehicles) deteriorated by 65%, and sales of the last five FAW (236 vehicles) collapsed by 75%.
At the same time, as Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, noted, a certain part of Chinese truck sales is "technical registration." According to him, some dealers register cars for themselves so that in the future they do not fall under possible extensions by regulatory authorities of the ban on their release into circulation.
As previously reported by Izvestia, in early February, the Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology revoked vehicle type approval for some models of Shacman trucks. At the end of July, similar measures were taken by the agency in relation to a number of Dongfeng, Foton, FAW and Sitrak models. At the same time, as emphasized in Rosstandart, "the restrictions apply to vehicles of these types imported into the territory of the Russian Federation before they are put into circulation (without electronic vehicle passports), as well as those released into circulation (with electronic vehicle passports), but not yet registered with the State Traffic Inspectorate."
Perpetual registration
Attempts by a number of sellers of commercial vehicles to remove certain models of Chinese trucks from the potential impact are fraught with the fact that these vehicles will remain in the dealers' own ownership, warns Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Union.
— In case of suspension or cancellation of the OTTS, the electronic PTS for this model is automatically canceled or suspended. It is impossible to re-register a car without this document: the MREO will simply refuse to register it. Thus, trucks registered by dealers in their own name will remain in their ownership: accordingly, they will have to pay a transport tax. The maximum that sellers can do in this situation is to lease such equipment," Anton Shaparin told Izvestia.
Echoes of past years
Experts attribute the sharp decline in sales of heavy trucks to a number of factors. One of the reasons, according to Sergey Udalov, is the record sales of this equipment in previous years. So, according to Autostat, in 2022 about 126 thousand new HCVs were registered in our country, and in 2023 — about 102 thousand such cars. In addition, sales are still strongly influenced by the high key rate, he notes.
Maxim Kadakov, the editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, agrees with him. According to him, there is now a quite natural decrease in demand in the heavy truck segment.
— Those who planned to upgrade their car fleet did it two or three years ago. First of all, these are large and medium-sized companies. Those who, for one reason or another, did not do this before, simply cannot buy new equipment now — and the trucks themselves have risen in price, including due to increased recycling, and the high key rate makes leasing and credit unaffordable, the editor-in—chief of Za Rulem told Izvestia.
Anton Shaparin cites the completion of many major infrastructure projects in the Russian Federation as another reason for the sharp decline in demand for commercial equipment.
— Unlike a passenger car, a truck is a means of production. If it is idle, then this is a direct loss for the owner. Since a number of major infrastructure projects, such as extending the M-12 highway to Yekaterinburg or building a bypass to Simferopol, have been completed, and new ones are still under development, there is simply no need for a large number of heavy equipment now," he explained.
Support trucks
To restore demand for trucks, it is necessary to resume major construction projects, Anton Shaparin believes. In addition, this segment of the automotive market is in particular need of reducing the key interest rate and introducing state support measures, he believes.
— Cargo carriers would be happy to upgrade their fleet, but they cannot do this due to the unaffordable lease payments associated with a high key rate, as well as their lack of available funds for the initial payment. The reduction of the "key" and the introduction of government subsidies for the purchase of Russian—made commercial vehicles will certainly contribute to an increase in demand for trucks," said Anton Shaparin.
Taras Koval, Vice President of the Association of Transport Experts and Specialists, considers direct subsidies from the state for the purchase of trucks ineffective. In his opinion, a more noticeable result will be the appearance of economic incentives for cargo carriers to upgrade their fleet.
"This could be a reduction in tariffs of the Platon system for those who use new domestic truck models, the introduction of transport and other tax benefits for them, and a priority for such carriers to participate in tenders for state and municipal orders," he told Izvestia.
Depending on the type of equipment, both types of government support are possible, Maxim Kadakov believes.
— If we are talking about dump trucks, concrete mixers or vans, which, as a rule, work "on site" and are rarely used over long distances, it is the subsidy mechanism for their purchase that looks more attractive. As for the differentiation of Plato's tariffs, this measure will be effective primarily for tractor units used in long—haul transportation," he said.
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