Disintegration Progress: Kurdish demands jeopardize Syria's reconstruction

The new demands of the Kurdish administration on Damascus may complicate the reconstruction of Syria. As Izvestia found out, the Kurds insist on receiving ministerial portfolios and revising the constitutional declaration. However, for the center, recognizing the special status of the northeast would be a dangerous precedent - it could provoke claims of other regions to power. At the same time, the oil fields necessary for Damascus are located there. A new meeting with representatives of the Syrian government will take place at the end of the week. Whether Damascus will make concessions and how this will affect the future of Syria is in the Izvestia article.

Damascus and the Kurds continue to search for a compromise

Attempts to bring positions closer between Damascus and the Kurdish administration continue. As Izvestia found out, a new meeting between Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and the head of the Department of External Relations of the Autonomous Administration of Northeastern Syria, Ilham Ahmed, will take place at the end of the week in the Syrian capital.

— A meeting between Ilham Ahmed and Asaad al-Shibani will take place in Damascus in the coming days, approximately at the end of this week. The autonomous administration insists that it be given separate ministerial portfolios within the government," Shelal Gedo, a member of the general secretariat of the Kurdish National Council, told Izvestia.

According to him, the revision of the constitutional declaration remains among the demands, since it is in it that the Kurds see a guarantee of real participation in the governance of the country.

— There are signs that certain elements of the administration in Damascus view the dialogue as a mere formality. This overlaps with the positions of some countries that are interfering in Syrian affairs in an unacceptable way, primarily Turkey, which is trying to impose its vision if the agreement is respected," Sihanouk Dibo, a representative of the Kurdish autonomy, told Arab media.

The upcoming visit of the Kurdish delegation headed by Ilham Ahmed will be a continuation of the agreements already reached. On March 10, in Damascus, the leader of the military wing of the Kurdish administration (the Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF), Mazlum Abdi, and the president of the Syrian Transitional Government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, signed an agreement. It provides for the integration of the Kurdish armed groups into the ranks of the national army.

The document also contains a clause on the transfer of civilian and military facilities in the northeast of the country, including airports and oil and gas fields, under the control of the new Syrian administration. So far, they are de facto controlled by the Kurdish authorities.

Since then, the implementation of the agreement has stalled. The Kurds insisted on maintaining autonomous self-government bodies and the special status of their security forces, while Damascus demanded full subordination and the inclusion of the northeastern territories in the national system. Another attempt to resume dialogue in July failed.

In the event of a failure of negotiations, Damascus will present this as a violation of the March agreements by the Kurds, Kirill Semenov, an expert at the INF, told Izvestia. After that, he said, various scenarios are possible, including uprisings by Arab tribes against the Kurdish administration. "We have already seen this in Suwayda, but here the situation may turn out to be much more widespread, since the majority of the region's population are Sunni Arabs, while Kurds are in the minority," he explained.

It is important to note that local Arab tribes have repeatedly spoken out against the Kurdish authorities, expressing dissatisfaction with their policies, especially the forced recruitment of young people into the ranks of the SDF. The tribal sheikhs openly called for the return of the territories controlled by the Kurds to the sovereignty of Syria. The tension spilled over into armed clashes.

The expert stressed that the demands of the Kurds to revise the declaration look unreasonable. "This document has already received the support of the majority of Syrians, and its correction will now be perceived as a concession to minorities by the Sunni Arab majority," the expert noted.

How the US withdrawal prompted the Kurds to engage in dialogue with Damascus

For Damascus, recognizing the special status of the northeast threatens to set a dangerous precedent that other regions and communities may try to use. Kutaiba Idlibi, a representative of the Syrian Foreign Ministry, said that the technical committees continue to work on the implementation of the March 10 agreement.

"The goal is one army and one state," Idlibi stressed in an interview with Rudaw TV, noting that Damascus rejects the "state within a state" model. He added that direct negotiations between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi are continuing, with the main focus now being on the implementation of the agreement "on the ground." Meanwhile, Damascus is trying to negotiate additional oil supplies from northeastern Syria amid the difficult economic situation inside the country. However, disagreements with the Kurdish administration make it difficult to obtain sufficient amounts of raw materials. This limits the Government's ability to maintain the stability of the energy sector and finance budget expenditures.

An additional source of tension has been the plans to hold elections to the People's Council, a kind of Syrian parliament, scheduled for September 15-20. The Kurdish administration has already stated that holding a vote without reaching national accord undermines the political settlement process in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

Thus, the Kurds' demand for ministerial posts is only part of a broader plan to consolidate their political weight in post—war Syria. For Damascus, the main problem is that such concessions can undermine the unitary nature of the state and weaken the control of the center. Even if the Kurds manage to join the government, this is unlikely to resolve fundamental contradictions: on the one hand, the AACAF's desire for autonomy, on the other, the desire of the government in Damascus to maintain a centralized state structure.

According to Kirill Semenov, the negotiation process is also influenced by the external environment.

— There are forces that are pushing Damascus and the Kurds towards dialogue, but there are also those who are fueling the Kurds' illusion of being able to maintain a quasi-state. This is primarily Israel, which supports separatist tendencies and is trying to prevent a deal from being concluded," the expert noted.

The main factor that pushed the SDF to reach an agreement with Damascus was a change in the US policy towards Syria. On June 30, President Donald Trump signed a decree on the abolition of the current system of sanctions against the republic. Initially, they were aimed at weakening the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but now, according to the American administration, they are hindering the country's recovery after years of conflict.

In this context, the possible withdrawal of American troops from Syria will leave the Kurds in a vulnerable position in the face of Ankara, which sees them as a direct threat to its own security. Earlier it was reported that the United States intends to halve the contingent in the region and begin its phased withdrawal in the coming months. This dramatically changed the calculations of the Kurdish side and forced it to seek security guarantees through integration into Syrian government structures.

Additional pressure on the Kurds comes directly from the Americans. US Special Envoy Tom Barak publicly expressed disappointment at the delay in negotiations on the part of the Kurds and urged them to accelerate steps towards Damascus.