Military stash: Europe cuts social spending for the sake of the army

While EU defense ministers are discussing military support for Ukraine at a meeting in Copenhagen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron are holding talks on joint defense projects on August 29. These steps fit into the EU's overall strategy for large-scale militarization: defense spending is growing rapidly, while social budget items are declining. Brussels is launching multibillion-dollar rearmament programs. Experts warn that such a policy carries risks for Europe, including undermining the traditional social model and increasing protest sentiments.

Social support is being cut in Europe

An informal meeting of EU defense ministers is taking place in Copenhagen, dedicated to expanding defense industry cooperation with Ukraine, as well as strengthening the EU's military potential. On August 29, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian Defense Minister Denis Shmyhal joined the discussions.

At the same time, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the prospects for joint defense initiatives. These processes reflect a general trend: European governments are stepping up military projects.

But increased defense spending and increased support for Kiev are hitting the popularity of political elites, especially in Germany and France, where society is already experiencing economic and social difficulties. Under these conditions, the ratings of governments are falling.

Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the EU countries' policy of increasing military spending could turn into an economic disaster for them. Many states have pledged to increase such spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. European leaders agreed on this at the NATO summit in The Hague in June. Military expenditures could amount to hundreds of billions of euros, which would inevitably reduce funding for education, healthcare, and social infrastructure.

The large-scale militarization initiated by the EU has already led to the adoption of the 800 billion euro ReArm EU plan, which provides for joint arms purchases and the use of funds for the development of depressed regions, as well as the creation of the 150 billion euro SAFE fund as part of a long-term military construction program until 2030.

Against the background of discussions about the militarization of Europe, the question of which resources will cover the growing defense costs is becoming more and more acute. As Vladislav Belov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, notes, states still have several options. One of them is the reduction of budget items, including primarily social ones.

— Using the example of Germany, such signals can already be traced: CDU leader Friedrich Merz is pushing the idea of reducing spending on basic income, — the expert notes to Izvestia.

According to Belov, additional loans may be another option. According to him, by 2028, Germany's national debt may exceed €100 billion. France is also facing an acute shortage of funds — in the autumn of 2025, a vote of confidence in the government may be raised in parliament due to the budget deficit, which lacks €44 billion.

In Germany, a way to raise taxes is being considered, but this option runs counter to economic goals, Belov notes. An increase in the tax burden is unlikely to contribute to the development of the economy, so some political forces are demanding at least an increase in taxes on the rich.

At the same time, Belov emphasizes, the goal setting of militarization remains unclear. Despite the rhetoric about the "Russian threat," Western politicians do not provide concrete evidence why Russia should attack the EU. In such a situation, the interests of the military-industrial complex play a special role. Experts often point to the close relationship between business and government: suffice it to recall that Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger is considered close to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

The EU is embarking on a war footing

In these circumstances, the domestic political consequences become especially noticeable. The costs of supporting Ukraine and rearmament are causing discontent among the population, who are not ready for large-scale militarization and see this as dragging EU countries into someone else's conflict. The only obvious beneficiary remains the military-industrial complex, while the economic and social stability of Europe is under threat.

But a number of experts still find justification for huge investments in the military industry and the army.

"Over the past 30 years, all this has fallen apart," Hungarian political analyst Gabor Stier told Izvestia. "Europe cannot stand up for itself, so something needs to be done. Of course, it hurts because there is less and less money. Where can I get them from? Education, social security, and so on.

According to Stier, there is a contradiction in the current situation. Europe buys American weapons, both for its own needs and for Ukraine, which does not contribute to the development of its own defense industry. As a result, the European economy benefits little from this.

— The problem is not that Europe is trying to do something that it has not done for 30 years, but how it is happening. And, of course, it's painful — social security suffers," the expert explains. — Partly because of this, European politicians blame Russia for the attack — after all, they somehow need to explain why they spend so much money on "military recruitment", why not on education.

So far, the EU's plans to increase defense production are complicated by the fragmentation of the military—industrial complex - most countries have traditionally developed their own military production, not caring about cooperation with other members of the association.

This problem also manifested itself in the Ukrainian conflict: Kiev had to master various weapons systems supplied from Europe. For example, several types of fighters are in use on the continent, from the Eurofighter and Rafale to the JAS Gripen and the American F—35, as well as a whole range of tanks - the German Leopard, the French Leclerc, the British Challenger, the Italian Ariete, the American Abrams and the South Korean K2.

With hundreds of billions of euros planned to be spent on re-equipment by 2030, joint procurement initiatives are already being launched in the EU. Their goal is to reduce costs, increase the compatibility of equipment and load European production facilities.

According to Polish political scientist and former deputy of the Sejm Mateusz Piskorski, the policy of militarization is already leading to radical shifts in the budgetary policy of the EU countries.

— This has especially affected states that have traditionally pursued active social policies and supported vulnerable groups of the population. In particular, the German authorities actually announced the curtailment of the social support model that had been in effect since the late 1940s. Thus, Europe is losing one of its key competitive advantages — the social system, which for decades has served as the most important factor in its attractiveness," the expert told Izvestia.

He noted that such steps directly affect the domestic political situation. In most EU countries, the positions of parties that the current authorities call "populist" are strengthening, although, in fact, this is a manifestation of discontent and growing social tension.

For example, Alternative for Germany has achieved record figures in Germany, Marine Le Pen's National Association is strengthening its position in France, and support for the Confederation of Freedom and Independence is growing in Poland. According to Piskorski, it is the redistribution of budgets in favor of military spending that is becoming the most important factor in the growth of opposition throughout the EU.