Craft coffee: Russians have become more likely to make coffee themselves

This year and next, the supply of coffee exporting countries is expected to decrease, which has caused a jump in prices. What will happen to the coffee industry in Russia and how the consumer habits of coffee drinkers will change in the near future — read the Izvestia article

Why is coffee getting more expensive

Coffee sales at Wildberries have increased by 22% this year, the company told Izvestia. "Growth is observed in all subcategories (ground, grain, instant and capsule). Grain, instant, ground and capsule coffee are the leaders in terms of sales, in descending order," the Wildberries press service said.

On Tuesday, December Brazilian coffee futures rose 2.6% to $3.45 per pound of Arabica beans (about 0.45 kg) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The reason is the alarming news from the Southern Hemisphere. In Brazil, frosts are atypical for the country, which causes premature flowering. This means even greater vulnerability to bad weather.

Recall that the current high prices are explained by last year's drought in Brazil and typhoons in Vietnam. These two countries account for 60% of global coffee exports.

Vietnam is also expected to reduce the volume of supplies. Local farmers are diversifying their activities in favor of growing exotic fruits, in particular durian, which is not so whimsical and more profitable to sell.

After heavy rains took place in Brazil, the market revived in anticipation of a possible decline in prices or speculative manipulations in order to create an artificial shortage," says Daniil Ivanin, chief analyst at VMT Consult. "That's why the reaction to the bad news was a sharp rise in futures," he says.

In his opinion, the weather factor associated with global warming is with us for a long time. "Every year there are more and more risks threatening the stability of supplies. The market is adapting as best it can. Some coffee shops are switching to cheaper raw materials, mixing less expensive robusta into Arabica, others are reducing costs, but trying not to lose quality, while others are reorienting to the vending trade format. Consumers, in turn, reduce the frequency of trips to coffee shops or learn how to prepare a drink on their own," the expert shared.

In addition to the weather factor, the analyst noted the impact of logistical costs (rising fuel prices), as well as currency volatility.

At the same time, according to him, the price increase could have been even more significant if Russia had duties (currently 0%) and there was no powerful culture of coffee preparation.

— In fact, 80% of the coffee coming to Russia is raw, that is, a product without high added value. Next, the Russian roasters start working. These are highly qualified, rare specialists who determine how much the taste and aroma of coffee will reveal in the drink. The same grains can be fried in different ways: with a stronger aroma but a less pronounced taste, or vice versa, with or without a characteristic sourness," says Daniil Ivanin.

All by yourself

Sales of coffee machines also showed excellent dynamics and increased by a third this year, Wildberries said. As in the case of coffee, growth was evenly distributed across all subcategories: automatic and horn coffee machines are the most popular, capsule coffee machines are significantly inferior, and the simplest drip coffee machines are not in high demand, although growth in this subcategory was 26%, the marketplace said.

In the first six months of 2025, Russians began to buy coffee machines more actively — sales increased both in money and quantity by 11%. According to estimates by the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, 1.2 million devices worth 17 billion rubles were sold in just six months.

— At the same time, the market is moving towards "smart" technologies in terms of revenue. Automatic coffee machines — with coffee grinders, cappuccino machines and recipe programming — accounted for almost 70% of the turnover. This is the most in—demand segment among those who are willing to pay for comfort and functionality," says Alexander Lebedev, Senior lecturer at the Marketing Department of the Higher School of Business at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

According to the expert, horn coffee makers, which are still appreciated by fans of "manual" process control, brought 16.6% of revenue. Capsule models collected 8.3%, while the good old filter coffee makers and classic versions accounted for only 4.1%. The rest, including devices for Turkish coffee, went into the "other" category with a share of less than 3%.

— But if you look at exactly how many devices were bought, the picture becomes more interesting. Here, the distribution turned out to be almost equal: automatic coffee machines and filter coffee makers shared the lead, with 22.7% of sales each. This is followed by horn models (21.2%), Turkish coffee makers (15.2%) and capsule devices (14.2%). That is, despite the fact that the "vending machines" bring in more money, they are inferior in quantity to their budget counterparts. Apparently, when it comes to making a choice, many people prefer to save money rather than overpay for the bells and whistles," Lebedev argues.

The top 5 most profitable brands for the first half of the year are led by the Italian giant De'Longhi with a market share of 34.3% in revenue. The expert explains the high demand by the fact that automatic models with "smart" functions of this brand have become the industry standard.

But the market is multifaceted, the Izvestia interlocutor says. "

— De'Longhi is followed by more accessible players. Polaris (7.3%) and Krups (6.7%) hold their positions due to the balance between quality and price, while Kitfort (3.4%) and Tuvio (2%) rely on the budget buyer. It turns out that the top 5 includes all the "types" of coffee machines - from premium to budget. At the same time, if you look at exactly how many devices have gone into the hands of buyers, the picture is slightly surprising. De'Longhi is still in the lead (13.5%), but Kitfort is literally breathing down its back with a 0.2 percentage point gap (13.3% vs. 13.5%). Polaris (5.2%), Redmond (3%) and Lumme (2.3%) are also not far behind, especially encouraging sales in regions where the price factor is the main one. Thus, the market adapts to everyone: while some are willing to overpay for an Italian premium, others are happy to take an inexpensive model," he says.

It can't be taken away anymore

Coffee is already an inescapable part of Russian culture. Consumption patterns and consumer habits may change over time. For businesses where takeaway coffee sales are declining, it is important to review the range in favor of offering grain milling for self-made coffee makers, said Yulia Makarenko, Deputy Director of the Banking Institute for Development.

— The Russian consumer is not spoiled by interesting and diverse coffee varieties from Ethiopia, Colombia, Kenya and Tanzania. The diversification of purchases will attract more connoisseurs. There are also many subtleties directly related to cooking. So, coffee for a geyser coffee maker should be ground larger than for Turks. But this involves staff training and higher qualifications. Thus, it is likely that some of the coffee shops in the middle segment, where the barista simply presses the buttons, will be washed out of the market due to high prices. There will be either coffee shops with knowledgeable people and, accordingly, a high segment, or vending machines where you can buy takeaway coffee," the expert summarizes.