Key down: Signs of monetary policy easing have been noticed in Russia

After the decision of the Bank of Russia to lower the key rate, credit institutions received a signal about the start of a cycle of monetary policy easing. It is associated with a slowdown in inflation and the need to stimulate economic growth. In response, banks have already lowered deposit rates and cautiously started adjusting loan rates, making them more affordable. See the Izvestia article about what changes await borrowers and depositors in the coming months and what this means for the Russian economy.

What will happen to high-interest deposits

In the summer of 2025, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate twice: first from 21% to 20%, and then to 18% per annum. This decision was an important signal of the beginning of the monetary policy easing cycle. The rate cut is due to a slowdown in inflation and the need to stimulate economic growth, while the regulator remains cautious for price stability.

The banks' reaction to the key rate change was noticeable almost immediately. In August 2025, the average rate on bank deposits dropped below 16% per annum, which is significantly less than the level at the beginning of the year, when rates reached 23%. Deposits for up to a year have become especially less profitable, reflecting a decrease in the need for banks to attract expensive resources.

Russians were told about the reduction in mortgage rates after the key reduction

Lower loan rates: forecast for autumn 2025

As of August 2025, the average interest rate on credit cards is about 47% per annum (at the level of June 2025). For clients with a high credit rating, the rate may be even higher — up to 48-49% per annum.

At the same time, loan rates are being lowered more cautiously. Average interest rates on consumer loans are expected to decrease to 18-20% by the end of the year, and mortgage lending is also preparing to ease conditions, especially as part of government support programs. Banks have already started adjusting the rates on new loans, making them more affordable for borrowers.

Experts predict that the reduction in the key rate and the general trend of policy easing in the coming months will lead to lower rates on consumer loans and mortgages. There is already an increase in activity in the credit card market — an increase in the volume of issuance and an expansion of limits — which shows an improvement in credit conditions.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicted a further slowdown in annual inflation in Russia

What does this mean for borrowers and depositors

The first signs of monetary policy easing mean an improvement in financial market conditions. For borrowers, these are real chances to reduce the cost of loans and get more flexible terms, and for depositors, the need to look for profitable short—term offers amid declining yields.

The policy of the Central Bank and the reaction of banks show the readiness of the Russian economy to move into a phase of sustainable recovery with a balance between growth and inflation control.

These changes confirm the expectations of analysts and experts about the beginning of a new stage in money market regulation, which will have a positive impact on the financial well-being of the population and businesses.

Back in July, before the Central Bank's decision, banks approved only one in five loans. According to information from the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), which Izvestia has reviewed, the share of approvals for car loans and consumer loans has decreased to 21.4%, and mortgage refusals occur in almost 60% of cases, despite preferential programs.

Expert opinion on deposits and loans for autumn 2025

The slowdown in inflation and a decrease in inflation expectations of citizens and industry became the basis for starting the process of easing monetary policy, said Mikhail Khachaturian, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor at the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University. Inflation has shown a steady slowdown, says Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. By July, the indicator for it had decreased to 4.8%, which is better than the forecasts of the regulator itself.

"This was influenced by cooling domestic demand, cautious consumer behavior, the strengthening of the ruble in the first half of the year and a slowdown in economic growth to 1-2% in annual terms," the expert draws attention.

At the same time, it is obvious that the mitigation process will be gradual, since inflation rates, although they slowed down to 8-9% in annual terms, showed zero dynamics in monthly terms, Khachaturian emphasizes.

"This is largely due to seasonal factors, such as the beginning of the harvest of cereals, vegetables and fruits, as well as a slight decrease in imports due to the risk of secondary sanctions and duties," the Izvestia interlocutor lists.

At the same time, it should be remembered that the autumn-winter period (especially the New Year holidays) is a traditional period of a surge in inflation in Russia, which may be a factor in suspending the process of softening the PREP or even tightening it, the expert warns.

Monetary policy easing is aimed at reviving economic activity, Astafyev points out. Lower rates make loans more affordable for businesses and the public, which stimulates investment and consumer demand. This will contribute to an increase in the standard of living of the population and real wages, against which purchasing power will increase, Khachaturian expects.

— For the regulator, this is a way to support economic growth in an environment where GDP is slowing and companies are postponing new projects. At the same time, the Bank of Russia remains cautious to prevent a repeat acceleration of inflation, balancing between supporting business activity and maintaining price stability," explains Astafyev.

Changes in monetary policy have already affected deposit and loan rates, but it is too early to talk about increased investment activity, businesses are still experiencing difficulties with financing and demand for their goods, works and services, said Adel Daryakin, Candidate of Economics, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics, Management and Law at the Moscow State Pedagogical University. According to him, the relatively comfortable key rate for a turnaround in the economy is 12-14%.

The current policy of the Central Bank sets the vector for reducing the cost of money in the economy and creating conditions for the restoration of investment activity, Astafyev emphasizes. However, the effect of mitigation will not appear immediately, but over the coming months, and will largely depend on external factors such as the dynamics of commodity prices and the stability of the foreign exchange market.