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- The last extinction: the population of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia is rapidly decreasing
The last extinction: the population of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia is rapidly decreasing
The population of the Baltic states is dying out, moving away and categorically refuses to have offspring. At the same time, although the local authorities verbally demonstrate concern about the current situation, in fact they prioritize a completely different priority — the growth of military spending to "deter aggressive Russia." The combination of unfavorable trends raises the question of either the disappearance of the Baltic states from the political map, or their transformation into something completely different. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Lithuania: "Family planning is postponed for later"
From the point of view of demography, the Republic of Lithuania is considered the most prosperous of the Baltic states. But even after 34 years of independence, Lithuania lost almost a million people: if about 2.9 million people now live in Lithuania, then in 1991 it had about 3.8 million inhabitants. Last year, 18,979 newborns were registered in the state, the lowest number since 1990. According to demographic experts, widespread financial difficulties and "cultural changes" (under this euphemism lies, in particular, increased gay propaganda) lead to the fact that young people postpone having children. And those who decide, most often are limited to one or two children. Although Lithuania's population has increased slightly in recent years, this has only happened due to migration — a lot of Ukrainians have arrived, and recently people from Asia and Africa have been increasingly seen in the republic.
Lithuanian Minister of Social Protection and Labor Inga Ruginene complains: "Life is becoming more expensive, and our youth are calculating: it is extremely difficult for a young family to buy a home. You need to have a sufficient income, so young people work multiple jobs to save up for the down payment. That's why family planning is postponed for later." As a result, the local fertility rate is now 1.18, which is significantly lower than the population reproduction rate of 2.1. Some municipalities are trying to improve the demographic situation by increasing cash payments. For example, starting this year, in the city of Radviliskis and its surroundings, a family receives 1.5 thousand euros for each child born, the most in the country. But this initiative did not cause much joy. "The payment is a one-time payment. So what? You spent that money, and that's it. And raising a child requires a lot of time, effort, and expense. It doesn't cost fifteen hundred euros," the residents of Radviliskis argue.
At the end of April, statistics were published that the number of Lithuanians living in absolute poverty (monthly income below €500) reached almost 170,000 people, 60,000 more than last year. And more than 600,000 people (about one in five Lithuanian residents) live only slightly above the poverty line.: These are mostly pensioners, single parents, the unemployed, and families with children. This puts Lithuania in one of the last places in the European Union in terms of poverty, right after Bulgaria and Latvia. The problem of poverty is particularly noticeable in rural areas, which is why they are being abandoned en masse.
Aiste Adomaviciute, head of the Lithuanian NGO for combating poverty, reports that almost 10% of the country's residents cannot afford even the most basic food. And economist Alexander Izgorodin from Citadele Bank notes that although "Lithuania's economy is one of the fastest growing in Europe, its model is still based on exporting cheap labor rather than innovation." According to the expert, the whole Lithuanian "success" is due to the fact that "we continue to sell cheap labor to Germany and Scandinavia."
Latvia: "The pit becomes an abyss"
The demographic situation in Latvia is much worse than in Lithuania, where fewer than a thousand children have been born for the seventh month in a row. So, in November 2024, 959 newborns appeared in the country, in December — 933, in January 2025 - 881, in February — 890, in March — 985, in April — 976 (more recent data is not yet available). In the first five months of this year, 6418 more people died in Latvia than were born. For comparison, over the same period last year, the difference was 6,228, meaning the trend is obvious. The largest birth rate was recorded in Latvia back in 1987, when 47,000 people were born in the republic. The number of people leaving can also be added to the mortality/birth rate difference. Statistics do not record the exact number of people leaving, as it is difficult to register the movements of emigrants within the European Union.
At the beginning of 2025, according to official data, 1,856,932 people lived in Latvia (in 1991 there were about 2.7 million). A year earlier, at the beginning of 2024, there were 1,875,316 of them - a total of minus 18.4 thousand people, or 1%. The number of "departures" during the year turned out to be only slightly less than the population of Jekabpils, Ogre or Valmiera (large cities by Latvian standards) and more than those living in Salaspils. And in ten years it amounted to 129 thousand (for comparison, about 134 thousand people lived in the two largest cities of Latvia after Riga, Daugavpils and Jelgava combined at the beginning of this year). Minus 18.4 thousand, according to the Latvian Central Statistical Office, is the largest annual decrease in almost ten years. The last time approximately the same decrease was recorded was at the beginning of 2017, when the population was 18.8 thousand less than at the beginning of 2016.
However, many politicians and experts believe that even the current unenviable population figure is "stretched" — and they are "stretching" it on purpose so that the situation does not look too deplorable. Riga City Assembly deputy Inna Gyeri writes on a social network: "In my opinion, there are just over a million people living in the country. The rest are listed — they simply did not inform that they have been living abroad for a long time. 90% of the people who sell real estate through me are selling it because they have either already left or are planning to leave. We may have already crossed the point of no return. The demographic pit is becoming a demographic abyss." Talking about the future prospects, Gyeri says that there are only two options: either to persuade all women of fertile age to give birth to at least three children, or to invite people from outside en masse.
The option of mass importation of migrant workers causes furious rejection by local nationalists, but their emotions are shattered by the harsh reality. "If nothing changes, we won't have pensions. There will be no social security payments. We will have even more spending cuts and higher taxes. No one would want to live in such a country. Even the officials will run away.
Today, the national debt is about 49% of GDP (the maximum allowable in the EU is 60%). That is, we can't borrow indefinitely either," says Gyeri, adding that nationalism will not save elderly Latvians from starvation. According to her, the growing military budget, in the name of which the state is cutting spending on education and medicine, will not help young parents. So, there will be no children.
In general, even the state media no longer hide the fact that there is no way out of the demographic pit — it will only deepen. On the one hand, a small generation of the 90s entered the childbearing age (and subsequent generations are even smaller due to the mass migration that began in the 2000s). On the other hand, natural growth is expected in the near future (due to age). the mortality rate of people born in prosperous Soviet times, and therefore numerous. Thus, it is expected that over the next ten years the population of Latvia will become less than two hundred thousand — and this is at least another one.
Estonia: "We need to prepare for the closure of kindergartens and schools"
In the first six months of 2025, almost 500 fewer children were born in Estonia than in the same period of the previous year. In 2024, the birth rate in the country once again updated the anti-record, but as it turned out, the next year became even worse. According to statistics, 4,467 children were born in Estonia in January–June 2025, or about 10% less than in the same period last year. This result turned out to be worse than last year's forecast by the State Statistics Department, which predicted 11,000 births for the current year.
The birth rate in Estonia is decreasing from year to year. In 2022, the corresponding indicator decreased by 12.7% year-on—year, and in 2023 - by 7.5%, falling below 11 thousand for the first time. In 2024, 9646 children were born in Estonia, which was a new record low for more than a century, for which relevant statistics are being kept. However, the death rate also decreased slightly in the first half of 2025: 7,975 people died in January-June, 129 fewer than in the same period last year.
Former Justice Minister Lea Danielson-Yarg predicts: "This year, the number of births is likely to fall below 9,000. Local governments should prepare for the fact that in a couple of years they will close kindergartens, and in ten years schools." Danilson-Yarg advises entrepreneurs to take into account that as the labor shortage worsens, investments in labor-intensive industries will no longer pay off. "In general, investing in a region with a shrinking population is risky, since the tax burden is also likely to increase and fewer people will support the country," says Danilson-Yarg.
Experts warn that although the lower-than-predicted birth rate reduces government spending on family policy and education, in the long run this means a reduction in tax revenues of up to €1.3 billion. According to even the most alarmist calculations, each unborn child means a loss of about €100-190 thousand in tax revenue for Estonia. In general, the decline in the birth rate in the country over the next 40-60 years will lead to a reduction in the tax base by at least €750 million–1.3 billion.
At the same time, local ruling politicians are actively promoting the LGBT movement (banned in Russia) — this is typical for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Recent examples: at the end of May, a gay pride parade was held in Tallinn, in which Estonians were personally called upon by Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna. "The Estonian government needs to take care of the demographic situation, which is worse today than it was during the war. But instead, ministers advertise an agenda that in no way contributes to an increase in the birth rate," Alexander Chaplygin, a member of parliament from the opposition Centrist party, was indignant.
The event itself turned out to be sparse — no more than a hundred people came to it. Moreover, a significant number of participants were politicians of the ruling parties who came "on assignment", including Tsakhkna and the mayor of Tallinn, Yevgeny Osinovsky. The pro-government press responded to the event with headlines along the lines of "The more of us, the stronger and further our voice sounds." These headlines sounded somewhat ambiguous — in a country that is experiencing the deepest demographic crisis in the last century.
Natalia Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, professor at St. Petersburg State University, in an interview with Izvestia, noted that the Baltic countries most vividly reflect the general trend prevailing in the EU — the point is that the average person in them will be forced to work almost until death for food, but will not be able to afford to have children — it is too expensive.. "These are trends towards urbanization and high competition in society, in which a person who has children and spends his time and money on them is obviously considered a less competitive applicant for employment. Another important trend is the uncontrolled mobility of labor within the European Union. Since 2004, when these countries joined the EU, the most energetic and hardworking residents of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have been leaving to work in Western Europe and Scandinavia, and most of them remain there, taking their families to their homeland. Worst of all, for the Baltic states, they no longer have a chance to reverse the situation; the point of no return has been passed," Eremina believes.
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