Shockwaves: The Middle East is preparing for an escalation of conflict

Israel promises to intensify attacks on Iran amid rocket attacks from Tehran. The Jewish state accuses the enemy of attacking peaceful targets, including the Soroka Hospital in the city of Beersheba. Iran claims that its targets are exclusively military installations. The United States may also get involved in the conflict: Donald Trump has already prepared a plan for a strike on Iran, it's just a matter of giving the order, the media write. The question remains whether the current strikes on Iran are justified. After all, like similar attacks in 2003 on another country in the region, Iraq, they are justified by suspicions that the country has its own nuclear program. But in 2003, the US administration eventually admitted that its arguments were unfounded. And today the IAEA has no official evidence that Tehran is working on developing nuclear weapons.

Iran strikes targets in Israel

Tehran launched the 14th wave of the combined operation True Promise 3 using kamikaze drones and strategic missiles, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) reported on the morning of July 19. During the operation, Iran fired about 20 rockets into Israel, some of them hit residential areas of Tel Aviv and the suburbs, and about 65 Israelis were injured by a strike on the Soroka hospital in the city of Beersheba in the south of the country.

According to the Iranian Mehr news agency, the main targets of the attack were the large headquarters of the intelligence and command of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF C4I) and the army intelligence camp in the Gav Yam technology Park, located near the hospital. The Israeli side claims that there were no military installations in the area of the hospital.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised Iran retribution for the attack on the Soroka hospital, saying that "the tyrants in Tehran will pay in full." At almost the same time, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced his intention to step up attacks against strategic and government targets in Iran. According to him, "preventing the existence of Khamenei," the supreme leader of Iran, is one of the goals. At the same time, even at the beginning of the operation, the Israeli authorities insisted that regime change in the Islamic Republic was not part of their plans.

On June 19, Israel attacked the Iranian nuclear facilities of Isfahan and Natanz. The message from the Israeli army's press secretary mistakenly included the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Later, an army source disavowed this information to TASS. Nevertheless, the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, said that part of the Russian employees had been evacuated from Bushehr, and several steps separated them from the start of the full evacuation.

A blow to the Bushehr nuclear power plant under construction could lead to a catastrophe comparable to Chernobyl, Alexei Likhachev said. He expressed the hope that the Israeli leadership "will have enough understanding and common sense to prevent even an accidental incident in the Bushehr station area."

— As for the Iran-Israel conflict, State Duma deputies are following the new escalation with concern and concern. I am in contact with both Iranian and Israeli parliamentarians. We advocate the curtailment of the military scenario and the return of the parties to the negotiating table. This includes the Iranian nuclear program, which has no military solution," LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky told Izvestia.

On the night of June 19, the Israeli Air Force also launched a series of strikes against dozens of targets in Iran. Among other things, an inactive nuclear reactor near the city of Arak, a "nuclear weapons development facility" in Natanz, as well as batteries of air defense systems, warehouses with ballistic missiles, and radar systems were hit. 40 Israeli Air Force fighters took part in the attacks, and more than 100 rounds of ammunition were used.

The topic of the Middle East escalation was raised during a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader noted that the primary task is to promote a cease—fire.

In the context of the escalation of the conflict, the issue of the United States joining it remains open. According to the American press, Donald Trump has already approved a plan to strike the Islamic Republic, but has not yet given a decree to execute it. Earlier, the Republican demanded Iran's complete surrender and unconditional abandonment of nuclear development. Nevertheless, according to American analysts, the involvement of the United States in the conflict may turn away from Trump that part of his team and the electorate who sympathized with his role as a peacemaker.

Prospects for the development of the situation inside Iran and Israel

In light of the ongoing attacks from both sides, the Red Cross expresses concern about the humanitarian situation.

— In both countries, the civilian population is directly and indirectly affected by the escalation of hostilities, and the consequences will grow as the conflict continues. The situation is unstable now. Our partners in the Red Cross and Red Crescent movement respond to emerging needs. We are deeply concerned that the cascading effects of this conflict could extend far beyond the battlefield, disrupting lives and depriving people of their livelihoods long after the cessation of hostilities," said IWC Middle East Spokesperson Suhair Zakkout.

She noted that the intensification of hostilities is likely to lead to the displacement of more people in their countries and abroad. One of the consequences of the ongoing operation was Iran's disconnection from the international Internet. There is no official confirmation of this from the authorities of the Islamic Republic, however, companies that regularly monitor traffic note its sharp drop from Iran.

There is an active struggle in Iran against the Israeli special services, which have firmly established themselves there, explains Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. And for this, the authorities, in particular, can restrict the Internet. According to the expert, the level of tension in the country is extremely high.

The Tehran authorities had previously resorted to restrictions during the 2019 protests. The rallies were associated with a sharp increase in gasoline prices, and at least 304 people died as a result of their suppression. Back then, people in Iran could use local social networks, access government websites, order taxis in apps, and conduct online banking operations. Nevertheless, the country was effectively cut off from the rest of the world in terms of information.

— I don't think that the fall of the regime will happen, but after all these events, the regime will seriously change. Even if all the Islamic paraphernalia remains and some aspects of the ideology of Khameneism remain, the entire internal structure will change. Reforms are needed, and this war initiated these processes that were already underway in Iran. There is no serious opposition in Iran that could overthrow the regime, nevertheless, according to some estimates, 70% of the population have a negative attitude towards the current authorities, Sazhin believes.

But not all experts agree with this assessment. According to orientalist Farhad Ibrahimov, consolidation around the state is currently taking place in Iran, since in the current situation we are talking about the continued existence of the republic.

— Some people may be unhappy with Khamenei, but even they mostly say that it is not for Israel to decide how they live. This applies to those who previously advocated democratic reforms. Although, of course, even in the current situation, it is possible to find groups of people who are waiting for the fall of the theocracy," the expert explained to Izvestia. — Against this background, Israel relies on the national aspect, promotes the idea that some nationalities infringe on others. In other words, Israel's task is to sow ethnic strife and strengthen separatist sentiments among certain circles.

On the other hand, it should be understood that even if Khamenei is killed, it is unlikely to lead to a complete collapse of the state system.

"In the event of his death, a supranational parliament will convene, which will organize an emergency election of a new leader," Farhad Ibragimov continued.

The Russian authorities also see a consolidation of society around the country's political leadership in the current situation.

"We see that today in Iran, with all the complexity of the internal political processes taking place there, we are aware of this, and I think there is no point in going deeper, but there is still a consolidation of society around the country's political leadership," Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the heads of international news agencies.

Israel's operation against Iran's nuclear program looks similar to the one carried out in March 2003 by the United States in Iraq. Back then, as well as Israel now, Washington claimed that Baghdad had weapons of mass destruction. During the operation, it was never found, and later the George W. Bush administration recognized the groundlessness of its pre-war arguments. The IAEA has no official evidence that Tehran is working on developing nuclear weapons, the agency said. Nevertheless, the IAEA reported that there was evidence that the Islamic Republic was enriching uranium to the level necessary to create nuclear weapons. However, this does not at all indicate the country's intentions to produce it.

— Tehran most likely does not have nuclear weapons, but Israel will not rest until it destroys everything that is indirectly related to it. We have yet to assess the damage that will be inflicted on Iran during this time, however, the example of Gaza in this situation is not comforting," says Viktor Smirnov, head of the Department of Israel and Jewish Communities at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Now the Jewish state is so united around the topic of fighting Iran that discussions about a change of power do not appear, the expert noted. Although large-scale protests had previously taken place against Benjamin Netanyahu, in particular, due to the inability to return Israelis from captivity in Gaza.

Lapid is practically the only opposition candidate who does not have strong support. In addition, he fully supports the actions of Prime Minister Netanyahu, Viktor Smirnov noted.

However, according to Farhad Ibrahimov, in the event of a military failure, Netanyahu could face impeachment. "The Israeli people are waiting for victory — if they lose to Iran, which they have been preparing for war with for many years, according to their own words, the opposition can take advantage of the situation and remove the prime minister from power," he concluded.