Stranger among strangers: Macron opposes war with Iran
Emmanuel Macron opposes a military change of power in Iran, believing that otherwise it will "turn into chaos." While his closest NATO allies — Friedrich Merz, Keir Starmer and, probably, Donald Trump — are leaning towards war. The story of how the French leader turned out to be the only "dove" among the "hawks" is in the Izvestia article.
Big mistake
"We don't want Iran to get nuclear weapons. But the biggest mistake would be to use military action to change the regime, because then chaos will ensue," French President Emmanuel Macron said after the G7 summit in Canada.
He also condemned the attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Macron recalled what happened in Iraq and Libya after the regime change as a result of military intervention.
"Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003 was a good idea? Does anyone think that what was done in Libya in the next decade was a good idea? No!" the head of state noted.
Macron called for a cease-fire and a return to negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. "I think it's necessary for the United States to bring everyone back to the negotiating table," the French leader said.
The head of state spoke at the G7 summit after US President Donald Trump demanded the unconditional surrender of Tehran and called Ayatollah Ali Khamenei an easy target. Although the American leader said that Washington was not going to eliminate him yet, Macron suggested to reporters that after the meeting of the G7 leaders, Trump had changed his mind and was now insisting on a cease-fire.
However, the US president, leaving the forum in Canada ahead of schedule, said that his early departure had nothing to do with the work on a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. Back in Washington, the president called a meeting of the National Security Council.
Following the meeting, the participants made it clear that the next 24-48 hours would be crucial in the conflict between Iran and Israel. The United States is confident that Tehran, being in a weak position, can return to negotiations on a nuclear deal and eventually agree to stop enriching uranium. If this does not happen, Washington may enter the war and, in particular, strike at Iranian nuclear facilities, CBS reports.
According to The New York Times, American troops in the region are on high alert, because if the United States joins the Israeli operation against Iran, Tehran may strike at American bases in the Middle East.
Macron vs. Merz
Emmanuel Macron also recalled that Paris "supports Israel's right to self-defense," noting the need to curb Iran's nuclear program and reduce the number of warheads.
However, speaking out against regime change in Tehran, the French president actually entered into a verbal altercation in absentia with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had previously stated that Israel was "doing the dirty work for all of us" and expressed hope for a change in the "terrorist regime in Iran" as a result of military action.
According to the head of the German government, the Iranian regime "has brought death and destruction to the world." At the same time, the German Chancellor believes that part of the Iranian government could participate in the negotiations.
Sergey Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that France has always been distinguished by a certain degree of independence.
— Let's recall anti-Americanism, starting from the time of General Charles de Gaulle, who got his fill of Anglo-Saxon allies during World War II. But the French built their policy towards the United States on the principle of "an ally, but not a vassal," although in reality, of course, the latter prevailed, the political scientist emphasized.
According to him, Macron remembers the story of Libya, when France, together with Britain, and then the United States, overthrew Gaddafi.
— When he came to power, he condemned it, calling it wrong. Violent regime change does not lead to anything good, the French president understands this after all," the expert explained.
The expert also noted the reaction of the Muslim community in France itself to the events taking place in the Middle East.
— Ten percent of the population, 6 million people, officially profess Islam in France. There was a lot of criticism of the government about Gaza, everything that Israel did after the terrorist attacks in October 2023. On the one hand, they support Israel, but at the same time they realize the need to understand the opinion of Iranians and the Arab world," the analyst said.
Fedorov added: in Paris, they are afraid that against the background of the already turbulent situation in France, what is happening will add fuel to the fire even more.
"The country has an incompetent parliament, and there have already been clashes at the political level over Gaza and support for Israel, which is why Macron takes such an ambivalent position towards Israel, believing that it is necessary to act in a different way," the political scientist explained.
During Trump's first term, the French president tried to get closer to him and establish a trusting relationship, but it didn't work out. The head of state used the same approach after the Republican's return to the White House.
— Macron tried to meet with him, invited him to France. He came, everything seemed to be fine, but it did not help establish any particularly warm relations, because the Americans recognize only their interests, and the Europeans are treated as vassals," the expert concluded.
An offhand invasion
Olga Khodinova, PhD in Political Science and visiting professor at the Diplomatic Academy at the Russian Foreign Ministry, believes that France's attitude towards Iran is "somewhat phantom-patronizing."
— Paris had quite close relations with the Shah's regime in Tehran, the colonial legacy of the French Republic in the Middle East is great. Paris still considers the Middle East as its zone of influence. Plus, the aspirations and ambitions of Emmanuel Macron personally," the political scientist explained in an interview with Izvestia.
The expert added that the French leader considers it necessary to declare France and himself as a significant actor in world politics.
"Therefore, I think Macron perceives Donald Trump's style and approach to resolving issues in the Middle East as an unceremonious invasion of the French backyard," the analyst concluded.
Kamran Hasanov, a senior lecturer at RUDN University, Doctor of Political Science at the University of Salzburg, believes that the current situation resembles the one that developed 12 years ago.
"In August 2013, when they were deciding whether to bomb Bashar al-Assad or not, Congress and the House of Commons prevented Barack Obama and David Cameron. Francois Hollande, who also wanted to attack Syria, was left alone," the political scientist wrote on his Telegram channel.
Then they did not bomb, the expert recalled.
"Now the French leader is also alone, but not as a hawk, but as a dove. Macron is against overthrowing the regime, Merz, Starmer and Trump are leaning towards war. The irony of the story is that the French and Germans helped create Iran's notorious nuclear program. But of course, no one will bomb Paris and Berlin," the expert concluded.
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